Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Some Chinese exporters are raising prices on goods from toys to yoga pants and medical catheters, as fuel shortages from the Iran war push up raw-material and production costs in the conflict’s fourth week. 
• China Vanke’s stake in a logistics firm that’s facing mounting investor concerns is adding to the strain on the distressed developer, just as another wave of looming debt maturities stokes default risks again. 
• The supply shockwaves from the US and Israel’s war in Iran are spreading across the global economy. 
• A federal judge in Washington will allow a lawsuit to go forward that accuses billionaire Elon Musk of unconstitutionally exercising executive power during his time in the Trump administration last year as a presidential adviser.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• FCC Bans Foreign-Made Wireless Routers.
• Chicago Approves 19% Hotel Tax To Fund Tourism Push.
• VALERO PORT ARTHUR REFINERY EXPLOSION REPORTED: 12NEWS. One of the largest refineries in the US.
• Hundreds Of Gas Stations Run Dry In Australia As Hormuz Shock Exposes Energy Security Failures.
• GAS FACILITIES HIT IN STRIKES ON ISFAHAN: FARS. GAS COMPANY OFFICES AND PRESSURE REDUCTION STATION DAMAGED IN ATTACK ON IRAN'S KHORRAMSHAHR: FARS.
• Trump Admin Strikes Deal With Energy Firm To Nix Offshore Wind Plans.
• JPMorgan Reportedly Installs Muslim Foot-Washing Stations At Rockefeller Center Office.
• Private Credit Fund Run by FS and KKR Cut to Junk by Moody’s.
• Wright And Lutnick Unveil $33 Billion Gas-Fired Mega-Project In Ohio With SoftBank.
• *IRAN LAUNCHES NEW WAVE OF MISSILES TOWARD ISRAEL: IRIB.
• WHITE HOUSE REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING IRAN'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER AS POTENTIAL US-BACKED LEADER - POLITICO.
• "This Is Election Interference": ChatGPT Safety Warnings Target WinRed Links But Spare ActBlue.
• Jerusalem Post: The deployment and arrival of U.S. forces are moving forward as planned. Current deployment: 2,500 Marines. 2,000 sailors. 3,000 paratroopers. 3 amphibious ships.
• US Weighs Deployment Of Elite Airborne Troops As Hawks Push Kharg Island Takeover.
• BREAKING: CNN was just FORCED to report that ICE agents helped TSA lower Atlanta airport wait times down below an hour ". You can see ICE agents behind me RIGHT THERE!" "And some more over here!" "They've been doing patrols." This frees up TSA for screening. LFG! (video)        
• BREAKING: Saudi Arabia has informed the United States that it is ready to retaliate against Iran if Tehran targets its energy and water facilities. — Bloomberg.
• *IRAN SAYS WAR CONTINUES UNTIL ALL SANCTIONS ARE LIFTED: TV. *IRAN'S REZAEE: DAMAGES TO IRAN MUST ALSO BE COMPENSATED. *IRAN SUPREME LEADER’S MILITARY ADVISER REZAEE TELLS STATE TV.
• Trump Triggers 'A Month's Worth Of Price Action Before Breakfast'; Markets Remain Skeptical.  

• @CNBC

• South Korea stocks lead Asia rally as oil slump eases jitters on Iran de-escalation signals.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Apollo gives investors only 45% of requested withdrawals from $15 billion private credit fund.
• Stock futures are little changed after Monday’s relief rally; traders eye latest developments in Iran: Live updates. 

• @DropSiteNews

• NEW: U.S.-Israeli strikes hit energy and water infrastructure in Isfahan, Khorramshahr, and Bushehr, according to Iranian media and local accounts. Fars News said the attacks damaged a gas administration building and gas reduction station on Kaveh Street in Isfahan, a major city in central Iran, along with nearby homes. In Khorramshahr, a port city in southwestern Iran near the Iraqi border, a projectile struck the area around the power plant gas line, though officials said there were no casualties. Separately, in Bushehr, a southern Gulf province already facing water shortages, a key desalination facility and the adjacent meteorological office were struck. Yousef Sobhani-Nasab, head of the Bushehr Airport Meteorological Office, was killed while on duty, according to Tasnim news. The facility plays a key role in forecasting and managing water resources and agriculture in the water-scarce province, and it is unclear why U.S.-Israel targeted it. (video)

• @MarioNawful

• Charlie Kirk’s longtime mentor Jeff Webb just died after a freak pickleball accident. He fell during a game, suffered a severe head injury, and his family took him off life support.
• U.S. officials have confirmed Iranian mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The Maham 3 and Maham 7 limpet mines to be specific. About a dozen. One official said fewer than a dozen. Negotiations with an active minefield as the centerpiece are a very specific kind of diplomacy. 
• Goldman Sachs's top lawyer finally resigned over her links to Jeffrey Epstein. Her exit bonus: $25 million. Goldman Sachs has a very specific way of saying sorry. 
• The Valero Port Arthur refinery is one of the largest in the United States. The facility processes roughly 395,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it a critical piece of America's fuel supply chain. Port Arthur sits along the Gulf Coast refining corridor that handles nearly half of all U.S. refining capacity. This comes at the worst possible time. (video) 

• @SternDrewCrypto

• UK MENINGITIS “OUTBREAK” EXPOSED AS PRE-PLANNED PHARMA FALSE FLAG! WAKE UP BRITAIN – THEY PLANNED THIS IN 2025. Leaked government documents prove it: In 2025 the UK quietly locked in MASSIVE secret contracts for undisclosed quantities of meningitis vaccines. Hidden values, no public tenders, straight to Big Pharma cronies. Then 2026 hits: Boom – sudden “outbreak” in Kent, uni students collapsing, legacy media in full panic mode, MPs and health officials screaming for NATIONWIDE jabs RIGHT NOW.

• @WallStreetApes

• American who lives in Temecula, California says the sky was perfectly blue in the morning, and then the planes came and started spraying. Temecula has an active taxpayer funded cloud seeding program. The Temecula area is part of the Santa Ana River Watershed Cloud Seeding Pilot Program operated by the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA). The program was launched in November 2023 and is currently scheduled to be spraying through 2027. We are paying for our own air to be sprayed. (video)

• @unusual_whales

• BREAKING: Just five minutes before Trump's announcement to halt the attacks on Iran, massive trades reportedly hit the market. In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold. These orders were 4–6x larger than anything else at the time. The trader seemingly made huge gains. Unusual.

• @epsteinsearchin

• $75 million. $290 million. $62.5 million. $158 million. Deutsche Bank. JPMorgan. Leon Black. The Epstein estate. That's $585.5 million in settlements from people who said they had nothing to do with him. Nobody has gone to prison.

• @NicHulscher

• COMING SOON: Gates Foundation has developed microneedle implants that install both PERMANENT quantum dot markings and mRNA into your body. Once implanted, they can be read by AI within seconds to verify compliance. They will function as biological vaccine passports, required to enter stores and to travel. (video)

• @MattWalshBlog

• Today Lindsey Graham, who for some reason has been the White House's top spokesman for this war, went on TV and invoked Iwo Jima while calling for more escalation in Iran. Iwo Jima of course involved 26 thousand US casualties. It's extremely troubling that Graham has so much influence with the administration and has been so empowered to speak on its behalf. He is not conservative, he is not America first, he has never done a single thing in his career to advance the interests of actual American citizens, and he clearly wants this war to continue indefinitely and doesn't care how many Americans die in the process. He should have no influence and no say over anything. He's one of the worst people in all of congress and that includes the Democrats.

• @HustleBitch_

• YOU WEREN’T SUPPOSED TO NOTICE THIS — A FIRE THE SIZE OF RHODE ISLAND IS BURNING IN THE U.S. RIGHT NOW. Nearly 1 MILLION ACRES in Nebraska… gone. Not a small wildfire. Not a regional story. One of the largest burns in modern U.S. history, and somehow it’s barely leading anything. While every camera is locked onto overseas conflict… this is happening quietly at home: • ~775,000+ acres of grazing land already destroyed. • Tens of thousands of cattle impacted. • One of America’s top beef-producing regions taking a direct hit. • Recovery timelines now pushed back months… if not longer. This isn’t just random land. Nebraska sits on top of the Ogallala Aquifer, the largest underground water source in the U.S., supplying roughly 30% of all irrigation used in American agriculture. So now look at the bigger picture: • Grazing land wiped out. • Critical water source underneath. • Fertilizer prices already elevated. • Shipping disruptions increasing. • Global tensions rising. Food. Water. Supply chains. All getting squeezed at the same time. And yet… this isn’t dominating your feed. The strangest part? The scale doesn’t match the silence. If a fire this big isn’t everywhere… what else isn’t? (video)

• @OcrazioCornpop

• BOMBSHELL: FBI CAUGHT HIDING 1.9 MILLION PAGES of documents in a secret SCIF "hidden room" at FBI HQ, locked away under Comey & Wray! This INCLUDES Mueller’s entire Russia probe files. @RepThomasMassie thinks these are “Joseph Mifsud” cover up files. The mystery man who started the Trump-Russia HOAX (mentioned 89 times in Mueller report - ZERO times in Durham’s report). The guy who fed Papadopoulos the Clinton email lie to spark the witch hunt. They hid this evidence to cover up their crimes and the Deep State coup against President Trump! Judicial Watch’s FOIA lawsuit forced it out. When will we see prosecutions from @AGPamBondi?

• @publicenemy2024

• It can be painful to acknowledge the truth, but yes we are being poisoned like vermin. Are you going to allow this? Or are you going to speak out? This IS happening, whether you believe it or not. I'm in SE Kent, and work nights in an open-air job. I see them start every morning around 4 am, in perfectly clear skies. By 7 am it's hazy. I have videos of them switching off the chemical blast, and then restarting it (changing tanks). I also have a video of two planes flying together, one leaving a contrail (which dissipates and disappears very quickly), and the other spraying a chemtrail (which never disappears; it only disperses). (video)

• @Polymarket

• The DHS shutdown is now projected to extend into next month — with TSA lines projected to get worse until then. 67% chance.

• @MaryBowdenMD

• 150 medical students from a single school in Pakistan just took residency spots from US medical students.

• @naomirwolf

• NO WOMEN OR GIRLS are being allowed by these male Muslim organizers, in this taxpayer-funded public space. @HarmeetKDhillon this is OVERT gender and religious discrimination using taxpayer money. I pay taxes in Brooklyn. This park is walking distance from where I live. If I (female, Jewish) walked my dog (haram) into that crowd, would I have access to the park? What would happen to us? LAWSUIT NOW. (video)

• @KariLake

• Georgia House Governmental Affairs CENSORED my Dominion backdoor public testimony—10 seconds SLICED OUT mid-sentence! That's the EXACT part exposing the truth they wanted hidden. Timestamps prove it. Everyone in the room heard it. ON RECORD. So I recovered the full audio, watch and listen to what someone doesn't want to be ON NOTICE of. WHO ORDERED THE CUT??? Why would they remove this 10 seconds of Mark’s testimony? And who ordered the removal? (video)

• @barkmeta

• Let me explain what a $2 billion “cow collar” actually is. They put an AI collar on a cow. It tracks location. Health. Movement. Behavior. Every second of every day. A farmer opens an app. Draws a line on a map. That line becomes a fence. No physical fence. No wall. Nothing visible. When the cow gets close to the boundary.. the collar vibrates. The cow turns around. Within 10 days the animal doesn’t even test the boundary anymore. It just stays inside. 700,000 animals are already wearing them. They called it a “cowgorithm.” They want you to laugh at it. Now read the technology again without the word cow...

• @shanaka86

• BREAKING. Every Nvidia GPU is made by TSMC. Every Apple processor is made by TSMC. Every AMD chip that matters is made by TSMC. TSMC manufactures 90 percent of the world’s most advanced logic chips on an island that imports 97 percent of its energy and has 11 days of natural gas in reserve. The war in the Persian Gulf just put the future of artificial intelligence on an 11-day clock that nobody in Silicon Valley is counting. Taiwan has no oil fields. No gas reserves. No domestic energy of any consequence. One-third of its LNG comes from the Middle East, with Qatar as the dominant supplier. Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, which processed roughly one-third of the world’s helium before Iranian strikes shut it down, is offline for repairs that QatarEnergy’s CEO says will take three to five years. Taiwan’s mandatory LNG reserve is 11 days. South Korea holds 52. Japan holds three weeks. Taiwan holds the least backup of any major semiconductor economy on Earth and manufactures more advanced chips than all of them combined.

• @MikeBenzCyber

• Bob Mueller ran the cover-up for the CIA during the BCCI scandal (BCCI was the CIA money-laundering bank where Osama Bin Laden held multiple accounts), then from 1998-2001 Mueller ran the NorCal DOJ while 4 9/11 hijackers were active there, then 1 week b4 9/11 he became FBI head.

• @nogps1

• The clock is ticking down. People need to start realizing what's happening in our skies and fast.. we can't sustain this level of toxicity for much longer. We all need to breathe, and our water and soil are being contaminated. All geoengineering programs need to be shut down.

• @HollyKesler

• The Swamp in 4K: Meet the King & Spalding Power Network: Former Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein, ex-CIA Director Gina Haspel, Sally Yates, Robert Hur — and more — all tied to one of America’s most powerful law firms. They helped push the “Russian disinformation” lie about the Hunter Biden laptop… …and now their elite network is quietly reaching into local Georgia Republican politics. My new investigation pulls back the curtain on how the revolving door really works — and why what looks like “grassroots” conservative organizing might not be what it seems.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 +.5 basis point .
• China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 108.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 91.71/bbl. +4.1% 
• Gold 4,343.0 USD/t oz. -2.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.43 -.15%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.5 +.2%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.38% +4.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.55% -3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 +2.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.87%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.61%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.68%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.