Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said. 
• The dollar is on track for its best month since September 2022 as war in the Middle East upends energy markets, buffets economic forecasts, and sends investors rushing to the world’s primary reserve currency.
• As investors brace for a protracted conflict in the Middle East, they’re electing to sell the technology stocks that have been among the market’s biggest winners in recent months.      
• A former Trump aide is initiating a $100 million campaign to promote the administration’s pro-AI agenda during the 2026 midterm elections.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Reportedly Told Aides To End War Without Reopening Hormuz, Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker. 
• Apparently, bunker-buster bombs have managed to penetrate the missile base in Isfahan, and secondary explosions are continuing. 
• Preparation fire before ground operation. The Iranian front observes a certain lull (if one can call it that). All attention focuses on preparations for a ground operation by the US Armed Forces. As of the end of the previous day, the amphibious assault group led by the USS Tripoli was located 900 km northwest of the Chagos Archipelago. While everything has devolved into mutual strikes, which have become routine (Americans together with Israel strike Iran, while Iranians respond with attacks on Persian Gulf countries and Israel), one can assess the efforts the Americans and Israelis invested in this operation.
• US Firm Boosts Production Of Precision Anti-Drone Systems. 
• "People briefed on intelligence assessments said Mr. Trump’s frustration reflected the inability of the current Iranian government to coordinate a response and make a decision about the American peace proposals." 
• Even Erik Prince Warns Iran Will "Burn It Down" - Boots On The Ground Could Mean "Burning American Warships".
• BREAKING: Citizens from Isfahan are reporting HEAVY EXPLOSIONS a short time ago. What's going on there?! (video)
• BREAKING: The UAE is pushing hard for Trump to order a US ground invasion of Iran, a Gulf diplomat tells AP, with Kuwait and Bahrain also supporting such an operation.
• The market is looking for a bottom, but price, flows, and macro all say it’s not here.
• *KUWAIT RESIDENTS ISSUED `EXTREME' THREAT ALERT: CIVIL DEFENSE.
• Oil Spikes As Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker.
• *IRAN STRIKE HITS KUWAITI CRUDE CARRIER IN DUBAI PORT, KPC SAYS. *IRAN WARNS US TROOPS FACE DEATH IF SENT TO KHARG ISLAND: MEHR.    
• BREAKING | At this moment, 12 A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft are being transferred from Bangor Air Base in the United States to RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, supported by aerial refueling tankers. It appears that the United States may soon initiate a ground operation in Iran, and additional attack aircraft are being deployed for this purpose — first to the UK, and then likely onward to the Middle East.
• More than 1,100 airstrikes within just 24 hours targeted Tehran, hitting camps, warehouses, factories, infrastructure, and government headquarters. Observers suggest that these intense and heavy strikes may be followed by a ground intervention.
• Gulf LNG Crisis Set To 'Make Coal Great Again'.  
• *NETANYAHU: IRAN WAR PAST HALFWAY IN TERMS OF MISSIONS, NOT TIME.
• Morgan Stanley: "We downgrade global equities to EW from OW and take UST and Cash to OW from EW. Uncertainty around magnitude and duration of oil supply disruption means outcomes for risk assets have become increasingly asymmetrical.".
• Goldman: "Overall desk is a 2 out of 10 in terms of activity levels with a -5% sell skew". total paralysis.
• Just Another Manic Monday As Narrative Shifts From Stone-Age Fears To Stimmy-Watch Cheers.    

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump is doubling down on rhetoric to end the Iran. 
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as U.S. crude oil settles above $100 for first time since 2022.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.   
• Stock futures are little changed as S&P 500 creeps closer to correction territory: Live updates. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -% to -.% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 54.75 ucnh.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Crude Oil 101.8/bbl. -1.0% 
• Gold 4,626.3 USD/t oz. +1.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.65 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.2 -1.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.72% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 -3.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.66%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.81%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higerh and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.