Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Donald Trump says he expects the US to end the war on Iran within two to three weeks, suggesting the US had largely accomplished its military goals and would leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Manufacturing across much of Asia expanded in March, with activity improving in South Korea, Malaysia and Thailand, even as other economies saw the impact of energy supply disruptions from the US-Israeli war on Iran. 
• Every week that passes without a face-to-face meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping gives fresh grievances time to accumulate. That growing list is testing both sides’ ability to keep ties steady between the world’s top economies. 
• The CFTC is monitoring trading in the oil futures market for unusual activity, its enforcement chief said.
• A key CFTC official said the agency will use its powers to root out insider trading in prediction markets.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• The U.A.E. official said the country was actively reviewing how it could play a military role in securing the strait, including efforts to help clear it of mines and other support services: WSJ.
• Russian Oil Exports Plunge After Drone Strikes Cripple Key Baltic Ports. 
• Multiple massive explosions have been reported in Bahrain and smoke is seen rising over the US Navy's Fifth Fleet HQ.
• JUST IN: A federal appeals court panel -- Henderson (GHWB), Wilkins (Obama) Katsas (Trump) -- has stayed Judge Lamberth's order requiring VOA to rehire a huge portion of its staff.
• DOJ Sues Minnesota Over Rules For Girls Sports.
• America is about to have a new neighbour with oil, cattle, and common sense. An Independent Alberta. The Texas of the North.  
• Trump has finally achieved his dream of 'regime change'—but in the region's maritime regime! The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran. The 47 years of hospitality are over forever. 
• *TRUMP TO ADDRESS NATION ON IRAN 9PM ET WEDNESDAY: LEAVITT.
• The states run these elections. If they want to use the U.S. Postal Service, they're going to get a barcode from the USPS, and they're going to put that on the envelope, and we will have one envelope per vote — none of this stuff where there's no certainty. (video)  
• We forked the leaked Claude Code source and made it work with ANY LLM: GPT, DeepSeek, Gemini, Llama, MiniMax. Open source. The name is OpenCode.
• 'Something Dark Is Going On': Nine Top-Level Scientists Die Or Go Missing In Past Year.
• Foreign Central Banks Dump $90 Billion In US Treasuries Since Start Of Iran War.
• Bullet Used in Charlie Kirk Murder Doesn't Match Alleged Weapon, Defense Claims.
• Today, we attacked the residence of American pilots and aircrew in Al Kharj, Saudi Arabia, with a drone and a missile, and struck a gathering of 200 people. Now, to the list of casualties and damages for Trump and Hegseth—apart from the AWACS, tankers, and fuel depots—a list of casualties and injuries to the flight crew has also been added.   
• Violent Israeli bombing of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility amid Iran; eyewitnesses say the explosion intensity is stronger than the Isfahan strike shown in last night's video. The Israeli airstrikes launched after Netanyahu's speech ended this evening. (video)   
• *TRUMP TO SIGN MAIL-IN VOTING EXECUTIVE ORDER: WHITE HOUSE. and an alarm just went off at some Biden-appointed activist judge's house. 
• One Man Thinks He Knows "Why Everything Sucks".
• *OPENAI VALUED AT $852 BILLION AFTER CLOSING $122 BILLION ROUND.
• Q1 In The Books: SaaSpocalypse Now, Oil Gets Crude Awakening, Credit Crushed, Gold Worst Since Lehman.

• @CNBC

• Dow surges 1,100 points, S&P 500 posts best day since May as hopes grow for end of Iran war. 
• Asia-Pacific markets set to rebound as Trump comments raise hopes of Iran war ending in weeks.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Trump says U.S. will leave Iran in 'two or three weeks'.
• Stock futures are little changed after major averages post best session since May: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nike, Dave & Buster's, RH and more. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.75% to +3.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 -7.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 49.25 -5.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
• Crude Oil 102.62/bbl. +1.2% 
• Gold 4,724.3 USD/t oz. +1.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.63 -.18%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.36 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.94 +.5%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.29% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.66% -6.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 -1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.8%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.16%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.