Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 63.2 -6.6%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 +1.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .48 1 -1.0 basis point
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.8 -2.7%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 194.9 -5.0%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 82.0 +1.0%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.0 +1.7
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.5 +.9
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.7 -4.7
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.4 -2.4
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(14 of 500 reporting) +94.4% -2.1 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.01 +.62: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% -4.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 790.90 +.59: Growth Rate +98.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.1 +.2
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.19 -21.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.3 +1.4%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.8 euros/megawatt-hour -7.7%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.1% unch.
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.23 -8.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 90.1% (-4.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 86.3%(-4.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,775 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +120 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +450 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
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