Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.4 -3.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +2.7%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 -3.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.2 -3.2%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 145.8 -3.8%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 81.3 +1.8%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
- US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.2 +4.8
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.4
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.2 -15.8
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.7 -.6 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.6% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.87 +.60: Growth Rate +17.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% +2.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 526.72 +.56: Growth Rate +32.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 unch.
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +14.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.9 -.8%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.7% +.1 percentage point
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.93 +21.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 97.0% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 78.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +525 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
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