Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Transport/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.4 -3.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.9 +2.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 -3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.2 -3.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 145.8 -3.8%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 81.3 +1.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.2 +4.8 
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.1 -.4
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.2 -15.8
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.7 -.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +13.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 326.87 +.60:  Growth Rate +17.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.81% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 526.72 +.56: Growth Rate +32.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.9 -.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.7% +.1 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.93 +21.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 97.0% (+1.0 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 78.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +525 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +37 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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