Thursday, March 12, 2026

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Protracted Mideast War Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Inflation Expectations, Transport/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.6 +4.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.2 -1.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .24 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.9 +4.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 144.4 +4.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 81.2 +1.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 32.0 +2.6
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.6 +.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 325.13 +.20:  Growth Rate +17.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.78% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 525.10 +.39: Growth Rate +32.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.25 basis points (2s/10s) -6.75 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.1 +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.8% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.3% -.6 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.7% +60.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.26% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.69 +23.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 95.0% (+6.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 77.8%(+15.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: Market Neutral

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