Economic/Market Gauges:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 +2.3%
- BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.4 +.3%
- Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
- BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .22 -9.0 basis points
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +4.8%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 138.7 +.2%
- Israel Sovereign CDS 78.8 +2.2%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 -.1
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 unch.
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.5 +.5 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.93 +.35: Growth Rate +17.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.2
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.71 +.62: Growth Rate +31.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.5 -.3
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +16.0 basis points
- US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
- Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.5 unch.
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour +5.5%
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.9% -2.6 percentage points
- US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
- US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.20% +5.0 basis points
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.46 +20.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.1% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 63.8%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -440 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
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