Monday, March 23, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @DropSiteNews
  • NEW: U.S.-Israeli strikes hit energy and water infrastructure in Isfahan, Khorramshahr, and Bushehr, according to Iranian media and local accounts. Fars News said the attacks damaged a gas administration building and gas reduction station on Kaveh Street in Isfahan, a major city in central Iran, along with nearby homes. In Khorramshahr, a port city in southwestern Iran near the Iraqi border, a projectile struck the area around the power plant gas line, though officials said there were no casualties. Separately, in Bushehr, a southern Gulf province already facing water shortages, a key desalination facility and the adjacent meteorological office were struck. Yousef Sobhani-Nasab, head of the Bushehr Airport Meteorological Office, was killed while on duty, according to Tasnim news. The facility plays a key role in forecasting and managing water resources and agriculture in the water-scarce province, and it is unclear why U.S.-Israel targeted it. (video)
  • @MarioNawful
  • @SternDrewCrypto
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @unusual_whales
  • @epsteinsearchin
  • @NicHulscher
  • @MattWalshBlog
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @OcrazioCornpop
  • @publicenemy2024
  • @Polymarket
  • @MaryBowdenMD
  • @naomirwolf
  • @KariLake
  • Georgia House Governmental Affairs CENSORED my Dominion backdoor public testimony—10 seconds SLICED OUT mid-sentence! That's the EXACT part exposing the truth they wanted hidden. Timestamps prove it. Everyone in the room heard it. ON RECORD. So I recovered the full audio, watch and listen to what someone doesn't want to be ON NOTICE of. WHO ORDERED THE CUT??? Why would they remove this 10 seconds of Mark’s testimony? And who ordered the removal? (video)
  • @barkmeta
  • Let me explain what a $2 billion “cow collar” actually is. They put an AI collar on a cow. It tracks location. Health. Movement. Behavior. Every second of every day. A farmer opens an app. Draws a line on a map. That line becomes a fence. No physical fence. No wall. Nothing visible. When the cow gets close to the boundary.. the collar vibrates. The cow turns around. Within 10 days the animal doesn’t even test the boundary anymore. It just stays inside. 700,000 animals are already wearing them. They called it a “cowgorithm.” They want you to laugh at it. Now read the technology again without the word cow...
  • @shanaka86
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @nogps1
  • @HollyKesler
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 +.5 basis point .
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 91.71/bbl. +4.1% 
  • Gold 4,343.0 USD/t oz. -2.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.43 -.15%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.5 +.2%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.38% +4.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.55% -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.8 +2.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.87%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.61%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.68%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Substantially Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-escalation Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Transport/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.2 -6.5%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.3 +3.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .39 +6.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 75.4 -2.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 189.2 -5.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 77.2 -8.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.8 -2.0 
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -5.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -8.9 +.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +103.6% -8.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.43 +5.43:  Growth Rate +20.1% +2.0 percentage points, P/E 19.8 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.0% +19.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 530.45 +1.62: Growth Rate +33.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 162.6 +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.7 euros/megawatt-hour -4.3% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.4 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.99 -39.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 87.7% (+3.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 82.8%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,750 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +405 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -.1% 2) Pharma +.5% 3) Medical Equipment +.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BP, MEOH, BBWI, CF, CRNX, BIPC, PARR, BE, BTU, ARX, PLAY, MU, EQPT, ESTA, PBF, VIST, CNC, OLLI, VTS, EQNR, AGRO, LMRI, VET, COKE, ANRO, ZBIO, LBRT, SEDG and CSIQ
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WEN 2) XLC 3) WVE 4) LYB 5) BB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ANNA 2) LU 3) ENPH 4) TLPH 5) PYXS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XAR 3) XLP 4) XLE 5) IFRA

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +5.0% 2) Gold & Silver +4.1% 3) Homebuilding +3.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • APGE, AXTI, LUNR, TSSI, HUT, QDEL, DRVN, MT, EMBJ, AU, XPEV, COCO, ERII, IPX, CUK, OSIS, SMCI, FLY, TEN, THO, TWO, CRDN, HMY, TILE, PERI, FDP, ALM, CPA, ETON, MBUU, HLIO, UAL, BBVA, SMTC, SCHL, FLGT, AUPH, STAA, GFI, CLDX, WPM, CNH, HSBC, DAL, AGNC, BCS, APOG, NWG, ORLA, CNOB, ORA, KNF, DB, JBGS, WAL, FDUS, LTBR and SHBI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FUBO 2) AVXL 3) AIRS 4) MDLN 5) CRK 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) APGE 2) UGRO 3) LUNR 4) IDR 5) NCLH
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) FDN 2) XLV 3) SIXG 4) XLY 5) SOXX
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CNXC)/2.65
  • (CNM)/.33
  • (SFD)/.68 
After the Close: 
  • (AIR)/1.15
  • (KBH)/.55
  • (WOR)/.96 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to rise to -15.7 versus -17.3 in Feb.
  • Final Non-Farm Productivity/Unit Labor Cost readings. 

9:45 am EST

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March is estimated to fall to 51.5 versus 51.6 in February.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for March is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 51.7 in February.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March.

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to rise to -8.0 versus -10.0 in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (JFB) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (ROAD) annual meeting, (ZG) investor meeting and the Mobile World Congress could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +10.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.6 -.3
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 86.8% of Issues Advancing, 12.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .98 +40.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$434.4M
  • 18 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
  • 48.8% (+13.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.5 +9.0
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 42.0% +8.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US forces enter Iran by April 30th 45.0% -15.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 64.0% +11.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.0 -1.2%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 98.0 -2.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 530.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.8 +1.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 140.9 +1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.6 -46.2%
  • Vix 24.1 -10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -23.2%