Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @MarioNawful
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @RenzTom
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Ric_RTP
  • @nicksortor
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @austin_fit76995
  • @NicHulscher
  • @SusanCrabtree
  • @irishpatriot91
  • @TmBreckWorsham
  • @P_McCulloughMD
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%. 
  • Crude Oil 91.60/bbl. +1.4% 
  • Gold 4,554.0 USD/t oz. -.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.72 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.42 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101. -.4%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.52% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.7 +1.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.29%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.26%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-Escalation Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Transport/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +1.0%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.6 +1.3% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .46 +4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.5 -3.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 182.2 -3.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 73.0 -7.5% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.2 +1.8
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -.4
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.7 +.5
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.7 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +96.9% -6.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 333.88 +.27:  Growth Rate +20.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 786.81 +n/a: Growth Rate +97.8% +n/a percentage point, P/E 18.0 -n/a (MU added, CRWD taken out)
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 -8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 44.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.7 +1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 52.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.7% +1.2 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.89 -10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 88.2% (+5.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 88.2%(+10.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -25 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +182 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Coal -1.9% 2) Gambling -1.7% 3) Shipping -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FWRG, HSAI, CNS, LITE, WING, BRO, UMAC, ZTO, ECO, VITL, RCAT, MU, DHT, ISSC, VRSK, FRO, TMDX, GNRC, SIMO, MDA, DKNG, NTGR, LBRT, WGO, SEZL, FPS, ONON, DAVE, FUBO and MAZE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BEKE 2) LYV 3) CDNS 4) ARM 5) SEDG
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ONON 2) GNRC 3) SNDK 4) PMN 5) KBH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) IGV 3) XLV 4) XBI 5) KRE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear +3.5% 2) Gold & Silver +3.3% 3) Biotech +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SRPT, CORT, BRZE, RVI, ARM, FLY, LUNR, GSAT, PL, ELVN, CHWY, SMMT, AIR, DXYZ, ORKA, PSIX, INFQ, IRDM, ASTS, DNLI, NRIX, FDMT, BKSY, RKLB, MESO, APGE, SATS, SPIR, TNGX, HPE, FROG, AUGO, INTC, AIP, ELE, MRLN, JD, SEDG, CIFR, SRRK, STOK, CSIQ, SMCI, PDD, FSLY, SSRM, CELC, HOOD, MRVL, AMD, RDWR, CGEM, LE, ALM, VECO, ETON, VIAV, NN, TSEM, ACAD, TERN, IONS, JBIO, HMY, XENE, ACLS, TWST, AGRO, CNNE, ATEN, KSPI, LGIH, SFD, BTSG, AEM, BBAR, BAND, WULF, NUVL, AKAM, ESE and CGAU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TERN 2) ARM 3) CHWY 4) SATS 5) PRMW 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) PAYS 2) CHWY 3) ARM 4) LUNR 5) AIR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) GDX 3) FWD 4) XLP 5) XLI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CMC)/1.28
  • (LOVE)/1.99
  • (SCVL)/.33 
After the Close: 
  • (AGX)/1.98
  • (OXM)/.02 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 205K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1849K versus 1857K prior. 

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 3.0 versus 5.0 in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (CIEN) general meeting, (JEF) annual meeting and the American Academy of Dermatology Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +.7
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 64.6% of Issues Advancing, 33.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .90 +40.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$223.9M
  • 55 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
  • 47.6% (+1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.9 +4.7
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 25.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US forces enter Iran by April 30th 56.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 54.0% -2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.6 +.8%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 98.0 -2.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 525.75 -9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 253.5 +.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.2 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 19.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 16.7 -19.3%
  • Vix 26.0 -3.6%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -3.4%