Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.5 +5.0 basis points
• China Sovereign CDS 52.75 +4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.70 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Crude Oil 93.24/bbl. -1.3% 
• Gold 4,560.0 USD/t oz. +1.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.70 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.32 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.0 -.8%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.41% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.58% +5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.6 -2.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.29%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.35%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 +4.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .40 -6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.5 +5.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 189.0 +3.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 75.4 +3.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.1 -.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.0 +.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.0 -1.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +96.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.33 +.45:  Growth Rate +20.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 787.46 +.65: Growth Rate +97.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.3 (MU added, CRWD taken out)
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .15 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 164.0 -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.6% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.0% -1.7 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.41% +8.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.11 +19.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 79.2% (-9.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 74.1%(-14.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,115 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +179 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -2.0%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -5.0% 2) Semis -4.3% 3) Alt Energy -3.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TECK, EMBJ, IE, ESE, CEPU, DXYZ, NTR, CTAS, WSO, IPI, ZLAB, INFQ, AGRO, MNRO, PATK, CRCL, NESR, DLO, FORM, PLXS, WING, CARR, ALOY, TSEM, ALOY, AIR, SMCI, BWXT, MU, FPS, PL, LII, MOS, AMD, RKLB, CDE, META, XPEV, ONON, SMG, PSIX, KRMN, GSAT, UMAC, SCVL, EPAC, LITE, WGS, SRPT, SNDK, APP, DNLI, RDDT, AXTI, ALM, IPX, AAOI, WYFI, ISSC, MRLN, WS and MLKN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) TERN 2) ADMA 3) EVTL 4) PONY 5) CME

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MLKN 2) SNDK 3) SNAP 4) WYFI 5) SMCI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) FDN 3) XLI 4) XLY 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +3.0% 2) Oil Service +1.9% 3) Computer Services +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KOD, NAVN, CAR, CHAC, BF/A, ELVN, CNXC, KALV, MAZE, CRUS, JBS, BRZE, BETR, FDMT, LXU, RVI, ORKA, BBY, UNFI, VTS, SCI, MRX, GLNG, SFD, HNRG, APA, LE, FBRX, IONS, PBR and BSY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ESTC 2) SHOO 3) ADMA 4) PONY 5) NEXT 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KOD 2) OLPX 3) NAVN 4) PGEN 5) NDLS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) XLK 4) IYM 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CCL)/.18 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index readings for March. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for March is estimated to fall to 3.0 versus 6.0 in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for March, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -18.8% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 +.3
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 42.0% of Issues Advancing, 56.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .86 -25.9%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$301.7M
  
• 68 New 52-Week Highs, 46 New Lows
• 47.7% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 39.9 -2.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 28.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US forces enter Iran by April 30th 63.0% +7.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 59.0% +5.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.8 +.4%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 537.0 +12.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.3 -.7%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 134.4 -2.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 15.8 -17.0%
  
• Vix 26.9 +6.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 unch.