Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.48

After the Close: 

• (MTN)/8.99
• (AVO)/.05 

Economic Releases 

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1YR Inflation Expectations Index for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, the CB Employment Trends Index for May, Rosenblatt Tech Summit, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, (CRWV) annual meeting, (MSTR) annual meeting, (INCY) annual meeting and the Mizuho Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Washington and New Delhi will strike a long-awaited trade agreement after negotiators wrapped up a fresh round of talks this week.
• South Korea’s $4.9 trillion stock market is starting to flash signs of strain after a world-beating rally. 
• Meta Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang said the company’s future artificial intelligence models will differentiate themselves from competitors through their consumer health capabilities.
• Global investors are rapidly losing confidence in Indonesia as the nation’s stocks tumble at the fastest pace worldwide and its currency sinks to all-time lows.
• The Trump administration announced a small modular nuclear reactor reached a critical milestone Thursday.
• Research analysts across Wall Street are telling would-be SpaceX IPO buyers that they’re modeling for the company’s AI division to see 100 times revenue growth at the end of the decade, to help justify a targeted $1.8 trillion valuation.
• As chipmakers suffered their worst day in more than two weeks, there were signs that some traders are betting the selloff will be short-lived. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 6% AS CHIPMAKERS SLUMP.
• Trump Says Accountability Is Coming Over The 'Rigged' 2020 Election.
• Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Glyphosate In Food.
• Anthropic's Marketing FUD Playbook Returns With Call To Pause AI Frontier Development.
• Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4.
• Rubio Says 'We Remember Their Lives And Honor Their Legacy' On Tiananmen Massacre's 37th Anniversary.
• Trump Softens Red Line: 'No Reason' To Retrieve Iran's Nuclear 'Dust' As It's Effectively 'Entombed'.
• *TRUMP ON IRAN WAR: WE'LL WIN MILITARILY OR ON PAPER.
• *TRUMP: WOULD BE HONORED TO MEET THE AYATOLLAH.
• The cities where the best housing deals are coming. (table)
• *TRUMP: WE'LL HANDLE CUBA AFTER WE TAKE CARE OF IRAN.
• *TRUMP: NO REASON TO GET IRAN NUCLEAR DUST, IT'S ENTOMBED. *TRUMP: NOT CONSIDERING COVERT OPERATION TO SEIZE IRAN URANIUM. *TRUMP: WE HAVE POWERFUL CAMERAS WATCHING IRAN'S URANIUM.
• *TRUMP: WOULD BE NICE IF LEBANON COULD HAVE PEACE. *TRUMP: SPOKE TO NETANYAHU, HEZBOLLAH ABOUT IT.
• Banks Bid, Semis Slammed Amid Momo Meltdown As Crude & Crypto Slide.            

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open subdued after Wall Street's AI-linked stocks slide.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CrowdStrike CEO says AI security fears will become a bigger tailwind in coming quarters.
• S&P 500 futures tick lower as Wall Street awaits May jobs report: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lululemon Athletica, ServiceTitan, Argan and more.

• @TheTranscript

• $AVGO CEO Hock explicitly says demand from Anthropic and OpenAI alone is far above what Broadcom expected six months ago: "We're talking about capacity as measured by gigawatt power that are way ahead of what we have expected, say, six months ago.". 
• Lululemon lowers FY26 guidance. CEO: "More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year. We have assessed the business and are taking additional actions to reposition where needed..."
  $LULU: -11% AH.
• $CVX CEO: Venezuela represents one of Chevron's largest long-duration optionality opportunities. “What many people are surprised to learn is that Venezuela has more oil than any country on the planet, including Saudi Arabia.”  

• @WallStEngine

• U.S. officials have held preliminary talks about the government acquiring shares in major AI companies, per NOTUS. Sam Altman has discussed the idea with Trump administration officials, including a direct pitch to Trump in early 2025. The discussions have focused on companies voluntarily ceding shares to the government, not selling them. Returns could be used for public purposes, including a potential dividend to American households. Anthropic is reportedly not in talks with the administration on providing equity.
• S&P Dow Jones Indices will not change its eligibility rules to fast-track megacap IPOs into the S&P 500 or S&P MidCap 400. That means companies like SpaceX or Anthropic would still need to meet the existing requirements, including profitability, seasoning period, & minimum IWF. 
• $RBRK Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Adj. EPS: $0.16 (Est. -$0.53). Subscription Revenue: $374.2M; +41% YoY. Total Revenue: $387.1M; +39% YoY. Subscription ARR: $1.57B; +32% YoY. FY Guide: Revenue: $1.638B-$1.648B (Est. $1.608B). Adj. EPS: $0.25-$0.35 (Est. $0.17). Subscription ARR: $1.854B-$1.862B. FCF: $293M-$303M. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $395M-$397M (Est. $382.8M) . Adj. EPS: $0.03-$0.05 (Est. $0.02). Non-GAAP Subscription ARR Contribution Margin: 11% to 12%. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
• Crude Oil 93.30/bbl. +.3% 
• Gold 4,479.60 USD/t oz. -.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.59 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.15 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.91% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.5%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.9%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.3 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.8 -1.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 148.6 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.6 +.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.6 -3.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.90 +1.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +2.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +28.0% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 362.25 +.53:  Growth Rate +23.2% unch., P/E 20.9 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% -.8 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.01 +3.22: Growth Rate +72.4% n/a, P/E 20.1 -.5 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 +1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 187.1 -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.4% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% -3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.5%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -141 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 1000% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -1.8% 2) Computer Networking -1.1% 3) Computer Hardware -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LLYVK, PRAX, ALOY, T, CRWD, XZO, BRKR, BTSG, CELH, PUK, BRUN, LCII, SKM, AVEX, CMCO, TAC, OCS, FIVE, AVGO, CIEN, NTSK and PVH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) CDNS 3) XEL 4) CMG 5) BHP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PVH 2) MU 3) T 4) CIEN 5) AVGO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) XLE 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Banks +3.5% 2) Pharma +3.5% 3) Defense +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• LPTH, BOT, RDW, VERA, OSCR, NTLA, LQDA, TSAT, PGY, PSNL, UMAC, INOD, AAOI, BEAM, ABVX, NVCR, TEM, BAND, FTRE, GENB, PLSE, NN, OUST, CRSP, CLPT, ADPT, GRAL, RCAT, FTK, MANU, RDDT, M, FLNC, BKSY, KMTS, BLLN, MPLT, HNGE, AMG, DXYZ, GKOS, TATT, VOYG, DQ, DSGX, GRRR, BLSH, BB, SDGR, TE, TXG, MRVL, MRP, OTF, OWL, VECO, PINS, BEN, OWL, RELX, STRL, KRMN, CDNA, TWLO, CCI, LLY, MDT, PUBM, AUPH, SOLV, ANIP, DHR, PAHC, DFTX, SAP, TOYO, JAZZ, CLYM, ASYS, JBIO, DFTX, GOOG, ASYS, CLYM, PPC, ASST, PCAR, QBTS, PKE, AUB, WSE, RGTI, IRTC and TFC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) PRMW 3) DHR 4) CIEN 5) CRSP 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) LFTO 2) IOVA 3) AUUD 4) CXAI 5) NVRI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) DRAM 2) SOXX 3) XLU 4) XLK 5) SKYY

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.88
• (GIII)/-.30 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated at 85K versus 115K in April.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated at +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in April. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for April is estimated to fall to $17.750M versus $24.855M in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AXSM) annual meeting, (GRMN) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (GOOG) annual meeting, (ABNB) annual meeting and the (LGND) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST