Monday, June 08, 2026

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.9 -.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.25 +7.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.4 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 151.5 -.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.8 -1.3% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.2
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 -1.0
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.5 -.7
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.2 +1.3
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.2 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +27.9% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 363.05 +.80:  Growth Rate +23.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.5 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.61 +4.60: Growth Rate +73.3% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 -.8 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -28.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 39.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.0 +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.3 euros/megawatt-hour +3.7%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% -.1 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.68 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 85.8% (+.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 57.3%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,720 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -165 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.7% 2) Electrification -1.4% 3) Insurance -1.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TEL, ALNY, NEXA, AMLX, BKD, MLYS, VSAT, WAY, SA, TTAN, AMRZ, OCS, CLF, CIEN, DXYZ, GHRS, ANDG, GWRE, SHAZ, APAM, KB, PRAA, JBIO, DRUG, ENSG, TLK, FCEL, AGX, TOYO and BRC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NFE 2) NNDM 3) IRDM 4) OPTU 5) HLT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FCEL 2) ENSG 3) CHKP 4) ADCT 5) WIX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLP 3) SMH 4) XLV 5) XLE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +6.4% 2) AI Innovation +5.5% 3) Oil Service +3.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TNGX, GLXY, ALOY, MRVL, AAOI, INTC, BOT, ZVRA, OCTV, OSCR, AIAI, MU, IDYA, ASST, SYNA, ADEA, PENG, CRDO, NNE, SRAD, CLYM, PI, RMBS, AMBA, FLNC, PRGO, ARCB, STM, ASML, TREX, ADTN, CXW, MRIX, ELF, BELFB, CEVA, CALY, INR, BBCP, AAP, CLB, CDE, GEO, PLAB, EBC, BTDR, INFQ, STRC, MYE, MEC, PLXS, EPAC, SOFI, SATA, LQDA and WSBC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EQX 2) ABAT 3) GENI 4) IAG 5) GLXY 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TNGX 2) CLIK 3) OCC 4) MPAA 5) INTC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) IYH 3) XLF 4) AIQ 5) ITA
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ASO)/.91
  • (SJM)/2.64
  • (SAIL)/.04
  • (UNFI)/.76 
After the Close: 
  • (CASY)/3.31
  • (CBRL)/-.48 
Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May is estimated to rise to 96.0 versus 95.9 in April. 

8:30 am EST

  • Imports MoM for April is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +2.3% gain in March.
  • Exports MoM for April is estimated to rise +2.6% versus a +2.0% gain in March. 

10:00 am EST

  • Existing Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 4.06M versus 4.02M in April.
  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April. 

Upcoming Splits

  • KLAC 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 3Y T-Note auction, ADP Employment Change Weekly, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, weekly API crude oil stock report, Mizuho Tech Conference, Goldman Healthcare Conference, BofA Financials Conference, Wells Fargo Industrials/Materials Conference, (BIIB) general meeting, (TJX) annual meeting, (FCFS) annual meeting, (MELI) annual meeting, (ULTA) annual meeting, (RBRK) analyst day, (ZS) investor meeting, (ETR) investor day, (CME) annual meeting, (NET) investor day, (CZR) annual meeting and the DA Davidson Tech/Consumer Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 +1.8
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 44.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.32 +78.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$105.6M
  • 70 New 52-Week Highs, 61 New Lows
  • 52.4% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.6 -1.8
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 35.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 17.0% +3.0 percentage points 
  • US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 44.0% +9.0 percentage points
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% +1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.1 +1.2%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 67.0 -24.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 85.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 434.5 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.9 +1.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.0 +1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.4 -53.2%
  • Vix 18.6 -13.6%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -10.4%

Sunday, June 07, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @CNBC 
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Here we go, the Los Angeles Times is admitting that yes, tens of thousands of mail in ballots did get processed for only Mayor Karen Bass and Nithya Raman but it was “a glitch”. They say the system just “glitched” for a minute and didn’t process any ballots for Spencer Pratt but really there were ballots for Spencer, they just didn’t get processed during the “glitch”. No, we don’t believe you. This is fraud and Democrats are cheating. (video)
  • @Megatron_ron
  • @JodyChaseTN
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @Polymarket
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • @ShaneCashman
  • There’s literally nothing weird about Thomas Matthew Crooks emailing a deputy from Butler, PA before the assassination attempt. It’s not weird that he practiced shooting at the same range Homeland Security used. It’s not weird that the local police and Secret Service spotted Crooks with a rangefinder, photographed him, and texted about him for over an hour and still let him climb the roof with a rifle. It’s not weird that the Secret Service wasn’t flying drones that day, but Crooks was. It’s not weird that Butler was the first Trump rally of the year with Secret Service anti-sniper agents on the roofs. It’s not weird that Crooks’ house looked like a sterile lab with no trash or silverware. And it’s not weird that his body was cremated ten days later before Congress could see it. This is like when people say the CIA was shadowing Oswald before he, and he alone, shot JFK.
  • @C_3C_3
  • @NicHulscher
  • @EndWokeness
  • Mail-ins arriving before Election Day: Bass: 38.1%. Pratt: 27.9%. Raman: 20%. Mail-ins arriving after Election Day: Raman: 37% (+17% surge). Bass: 34.9% (-3% drop). Pratt: 19% (-9% drop). Who are we kidding here? This is fraud.
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @FTT1776
  • @DavidJHarrisjr
  • @financeLancelot
  • @BullTheoryio
  • @OCOCReport
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -3.75% to -1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%.
  • Crude Oil 93.37/bbl. +3.1%
  • Gold 4,348.1 USD/t oz. -.4% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.51 +.26%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.98 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.9 -.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.56% +3.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95% +4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.8%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.