Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +.25 basis point
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.03%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.0 +.3%
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 +.5%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.13%

• S&P 500 futures +.05%

• NASDAQ 100 futures unch.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Seasonality, Pharma/Utility Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.50% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -6.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.8 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.96 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 382.04 +.17: Growth Rate +34.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.4 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.28 +54.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 4.75 basis point (2s/10s) +5.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.3% +3.3 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 57.5%(+6.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 43.3%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -77 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FRO)/.36
• (PDCO)/.49
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 3Q GDP updates. 
• The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$102.6B versus -$108.2B in Sept.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Sept.
• Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.8% gain in Sept.
• Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.7% decline in Sept.
• Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1893K versus 1908K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 41.6 in Oct.
  

10:00 am EST

• Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Sept.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
• Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a +7.4% gain in Sept.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -521,670 barrels versus a +545,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies is estimated to fall by -390,000 barrels versus a +2,054,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -46,670 barrels versus a -114,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.08% versus a -1.2% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, weekly US Baker Hughes Rig Count and the (SEE) annual meeting  could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @WallStreetApes

• Another Congress Member Insider Trading for Matt Gaetz to investigate. Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin’s Net Worth QUADRUPLED Between 2018-2022 From $12m -> $63m. He bought shares of a water meter company just 2 weeks before Tulsa, Oklahoma announced replacing all water meters costing $94 million. How did he know?! That’s not all, other congress members made the trade and the water meter replacements are being done nationwide. “How is it possible that even though the congressional salary is a $174,000 a year, all these lawmakers are worth millions of dollars? That's because they often make much more than that in the stock market. 
• WOW! It’s all coming out. When Donald Trump was asking for the Georgia Election investigation in 2020, then Attorney General Bill Barr NEVER DID THE INVESTIGATION. “In this call that you're asking me about, he's begging the Georgia state officials, have your law enforcement officers go out and do an investigation — he believed he won by over a 100,000 votes”. “I've seen the preliminary investigation, but I never saw a follow-up investigation by law enforcement to conclusively prove or disprove that probable cause because it wasn't done. — Herein lies the big question. When Trump asked Barr to do the investigation, why wasn't it done?” They didn’t do it because they all knew it was rigged. There is no other reason. People need to go to prison for this. (video)
  

• @TheChiefNerd

• TUCKER: "I am very concerned that the people who have hated Trump for eight years and run out of ways to destroy him ... have decided the only way to stop Trump, and the disclosure that a Trump administration will bring ... is with a world war ... I know a lot of the people involved and they're very, very, very focused on war." (video)

• @BillAckman
  

• The FDA safe limit of Aluminum is 25mcg BUT, babies get 250mcg on the first day of life with the Hepatitis B vaccine alone. Remember, ingested and injected are 2 different biological processes. Does Injecting 10 times the amount of Aluminum deemed safe into a day old infant seem logical and safe to you? Does anyone dispute these assertions?

• @SovMichael

• This is Dr. Janette Nesheiwat's sister, Julia Nesheiwat. Trump's choice for National Security Advisor, Rep. Mike Waltz, is married to Julia Nesheiwat. Julia Nesheiwat: -Current member of the Atlantic Council -Served in the Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden Administrations -She served on the World Economic Forum’s Global Advisory Council on low-carbon energy transformation as well as an international affairs fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations.

• @DC_Draino

• Elon is on a rampage to take out Senate RINOs. Good. We finally have an extremely wealthy political billionaire fighting for the MAGA team. Combine that with our MAGA social media ecosystem filled with influencers and podcasts with hundreds of millions of followers and we now have political nuclear warhead arsenal. RINOs have been warned!

• @matt_vanswol

• It is mind-blowingly insane to watch FEMA officials claim no one in #WNC is in tents while reporters are flying in from all over the country to INTERVIEW the people living in tents. Here's a reporter from SEATTLE interviewing a couple with kids living in a tent in Swannanoa NC. (video)

• @RealHickory
  

• It's time for Team Trump to release the dirt on Senate RINO's Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, John Thune, Mitch McConnell, and anyone else who wants to obstruct the America First agenda! Take these traitors down and out! All is fair in guerilla warfare! Just do it!

• @WesternLensman
  

• TOM HOMAN: “This administration has turned the world upside down." Powerful remarks from Homan. This man has a spine of steel: "I got death threats. My family's not even living in my home right now. All of a sudden, the guys who want to enforce the law are the bad guys, the guys who break the law are the victims." “To those mayors and those governors who say they're going to stop me from and stop ICE from doing the job — listen to Laken Riley, take a listen to the 17 minutes of this girl suffering, fighting for her life." “You can hate Trump all you want, but you've got to love your community more than you hate President Trump." (video)

• @carolmswain
  

• Here’s the doctor who should have gotten the surgeon general nomination.

• @LeadingReport
  

• BREAKING: Sen. Ron Johnson has threatened to issue a subpoena to the CDC, FDA, and HHS to obtain data on adverse health effects related to the COVID-19 vaccine when he becomes chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

• @MarioNawful
  

• WALMART GOES UNWOKE: AMERICA'S LARGEST EMPLOYER DUMPS DEI. Retail giant just dropped the biggest anti-woke bomb of 2024: No more HRC surveys, Pride funding under review, DEI term discontinued, and LatinX banned from communications. When America's largest employer says no to DEI, is this the beginning of the end for corporate wokeism? (video)
• FACEBOOK FLAGS SENATOR'S CALL FOR EPSTEIN TRANSPARENCY. Senator Blackburn slams Meta for auto-flagging post about releasing flight logs. When asking for government transparency gets labeled "broadly disliked," maybe it's time to ask who's doing the disliking? Elon's response says it all: "Fortunately, X believes in free speech". 
• CHINA IS BUILDING SWARM DRONES... Elon: "Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35." (video)
• BREAKING: GEORGIA UNIVERSITY SYSTEM TO BAN DEI | REQUIRES CIVICS EDUCATION.

• @DC_Draino

• Trump threatens Mexico & Canada with a 25% tariff on ALL their exports to America if they don’t stop the illegal alien caravans. Boom! Watch these caravans disappear quick!

• @PamBondiAG

• Nancy Pelosi’s salary is $175k yet she has a net worth of $200 million+. I will investigate and prosecute to the fullest extent of the law.

• @bonchieredstate

• Every left-winger should have their eyes held open and be forced to watch this on repeat until it sinks in. (video)
  

• @sheislaurenlee

• Lobbyists for companies like Pepsi and McDonalds are already meeting to strategize how to counter RFK Jr.’s sweeping reforms at HHS. According to an inside Trump source, “BILLIONS, not millions,” are being spent to protect existing interests of Big Food and Big Ag, and Big Pharma. Understand that every hit-piece you read on Kennedy is funded by this machine. This will be a battle until the end.

• @Libsoftiktok
  

• SCOOP: Employees at @Geico are being forced to complete mandatory training courses instructing them to provide their pronouns when engaging with customers and how to deal with being misgendered. Yet another company pushing gender ideology nonsense. We the people want this insanity to end!!

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,016,047 Reports(+2,606 from prior report) Through October 25, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 +.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.25 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.5 -.22%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 65.4 +.02%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.8 +2.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.2%

• S&P 500 futures -.47%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Trump Cabinet Nominees, Long-Term Rate Plunge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Homebuilding/Retail Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -1.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .97 -5.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 65.4 -.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.0 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 -.46%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.2 +2.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +35.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -11.9%

• NYSE Arms 1.50 +59.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$169.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.2 -.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 288.3 +1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 188 -1
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +.3%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 158.8 -.36%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.3 -.73%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.5 -1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 117.1 -2.0%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 -.06%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -3.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 646.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 47.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.6 +.19%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.53% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.0 -3.0 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.1 -2.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index .9 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(477 of 500 reporting) +8.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.89 +.19:  Growth Rate +13.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.59% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +33.3% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 381.87 +.39: Growth Rate +34.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 -.2 point
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 -24.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .74 -24.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -.5 basis point (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.58% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.0% -.9 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.70% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.1%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 41.9%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +70 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.0% 2) Energy -1.3% 3) Shipping -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BKKT, LMT, MLI, MSTR, DESP, BTU, OKLO and NNE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RSP 2) XLB 3) ACHR 4) ZM 5) QUBT
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ZETA 2) M 3) IREN 4) FNA 5) SQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLI 3) XLK 4) KWEB 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume