Monday, March 31, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @Liz_Wheeler
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @kylenabecker
  • @MarioNawful
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @nicksortor
  • @Humanspective
  • @alx 
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Susancrabtree
  • @EYakoby
  • @MAGAVoice
  • @pepesgrandma
  • @AmyMek
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 + basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.0 + basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.2 +.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +2.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.44%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.58%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.37 +.28:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.27 +.49: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -22.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.4% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 41.9%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +532 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +344 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.4% 2) Biotech -2.2% 3) Electric Vehiciles -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • LULU, RWAY, CGBD, ICLR, ZS, CRNX, PHH, TRIN, RBRK, MRUS, BNTX, RNA, DNLI, CRSP, MRNA, EXTR, PTCT, RKT, SRPT, MNRO, BLFS, BHVN, QURE, BEAM, VERA, IIPR and PCVX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FND 2) TRMB 3) HES 4) UAA 5) IYR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SRPT 2) MRNA 3) ATNM 4) MULN 5) NVAX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXD 2) IGV 3) PPA 4) XLV 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Energy +1.1% 2) Medical Equipment +1.1% 3) Insurance +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CORT, COOP, DFS, CELH, MLYS, LYV, AVO, HMY, PARA, AIG, DRD, OMC and DLTR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UMC 2) MCHI 3) XLC 4) XLI 5) KVUE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VASO 2) BLUE 3) CTOR 4) CORT 5) DFS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) FXU 2) IFRA 3) XLU 4) VGT 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (NCNO)/.19
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Feb. is estimated to fall to 7652K versus 7740K in Jan.
  • ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 49.5 versus 50.3 in Feb.
  • ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 64.6 versus 62.4 in Feb.

Afternoon

  • Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 16.2M versus 16.0M in February.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barkin speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April, weekly US retail sales reports and the Dallas Fed Services Revenues for March could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +6.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.8 -7.0
  • 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
  • 23.1% of Issues Advancing, 74.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .80 -51.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$104.3M
  • 39 New 52-Week Highs, 133 New Lows
  • 34.4% (-4.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.3 -9.3
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 -4.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,089.4 -1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 19.1 -24.7%
  • Vix 22.4 +3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -2.0%