Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.7%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.5% 2) Pharma -2.5% 3) Biotech -2.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SRPT, SHC, AAL, TKR, WPP, MRUS, SRRK, EE, JNJ, RCI, HROW, PHH, PTCT, GPCR, BEAM, KYMR, DNLI, NAMS, MLYS, IDYA, NRIX, PCVX and CORT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CMPX 2) RKT 3) SMMT 4) ONON 5) PARA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FDCT 2) PRGS 3) PVH 4) CLPT 5) AEO

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) FXD 3) XLK 4) XLI 5) IBB

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.7%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +1.7% 2) Retail +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CRWV, PVH, HSAI, HUT, PRGS, IONQ, OKLO, FWRG, NBIS, LEU, RIVN, TSLA, CLPT, IBTA, SKBL, MNDY, RDDT, TCMD, SMR, ZIM, APLS, CBRL, DAKT, LEVI, RKT, RBLX, MSTR, SRAD, TTD, AEO, DJT, CYD, QXO, PAHC, DSP, FINV, ALGM, COOP, OS, ENVA, CAL, CAKE, WING, VRT, LLYVK, BJRI, SIG, RUSHA, ZLAB, DUOL,EZPW, INMD, CEPU, MXL, CMRE, EGO, APP, PPC, PPC, MP, MXL, RL, KAR, ESAB, VIST, SGI, GAP, PRAA, VFC and VCTR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FLUT 2) SABR 3) EWY 4) MVST 5) PRMW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NUTX 2) PVH 3) CAPS 4) PRGS 5) FWRG

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FXU 2) XLE 3) XLF 4) XLU 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ANGO)/-.13
• (UNF)/1.34
  

After the Close: 

• (BB)/.00
• (RH)/1.92
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 120K versus 77K in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.7% gain in Jan.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in Jan.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Feb.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -448,400 barrels versus a -3,341,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,519,600 barrels versus a -1,446,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -407,200 barrels versus a -421,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.48% versus a +.1% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The imposition of reciprocal tariffs, Fed's Kugler speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (FLR) business update call, (ANGO) investor meeting and the JPMorgan Retail Roundup could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -3.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 +2.5
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 67.0% of Issues Advancing, 31.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.12 +72.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$44.1M
  
• 27 New 52-Week Highs, 110 New Lows
• 34.6% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.1 +4.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.8 -1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 233.2 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,312.4 +.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 18.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 17.8 -18.5%
  
• Vix 22.0 -1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -16.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• @realDonaldTrump.
• President Trump on Elon Musk & DOGE: "I think Elon is amazing but I also think he got a big company to run, so at some point he's going to be going back. He's a very talented guy. He's very smart and has done a good job. DOGE found numbers that nobody can even believe like 400 billion. It could be close to a trillion dollars by the time they end. He's led the charge. These are high IQ people. They have done a great job. At some point, Elon's going to want to go back to his company, I will say despite the way he's treated, he's a great patriot." (video)
• @elonmusk is right: Republicans must vote in every election like the future of Western Civilization is on the line…because it is! It does. (video)
• Marine Le Pen in France, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Imran Khan in Pakistan, Matteo Salvini in Italy, Donald Trump in America, Calin Georgescu in Romania. The criminal prosecution of every populist challenger is a dagger in the heart of the credibility of democracy. When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents. This is their standard playbook throughout the world.

• @Liz_Wheeler

• Judge Boasberg sentenced Ray Epps. Ray Epps, who is on tape telling people to “go into the Capitol” on Jan. 6th. Ray Epps, who was on the FBI’s most wanted list after J6, only to be mysteriously removed for no reason. (We KNOW the reason.) Ray Epps, who wasn’t arrested or charged or sentenced… for years. While others who merely walked on Capitol grounds were raided, handcuffed, imprisoned, & branded as terrorists. Ray Epps, who, when he was *finally* charged… faced one measly charge of disorderly conduct. And never faced a day in prison. Not one. He was given a quiet slap on the wrist & let go with a year probation. He didn’t even get a scolding from the judge who let him go. That judge? Boasberg.

• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: Since 2021, 5.5 MILLION Illegal Aliens Have Acquired U.S. Social Security Numbers, 1.3 MILLION of these Illegal Aliens are ALREADY on Medicaid. Some of these Illegal Aliens are Registed to Vote and some ALREADY HAVE Voted in U.S. Elections. They have been referred to Homeland Security Investigation Service for Prosecution. (video)

• @kylenabecker

• "The thing that actually has the Democrats losing their minds, by far—the real reason for these attacks and the sort of burning of the cars and everything, is that we're going to turn off the payments to illegals." "Because, yeah, I mean, it's simply not right..." "It's all very real. I think it’s the biggest voter fraud scheme in history. And if it hadn’t been interrupted, it would have succeeded." (video)

• @MarioNawful

• TRUMP SAYS WISCONSIN MUST PASS VOTER ID REFERENDUM AND ELECT BRAD SCHIMEL—EVERYONE SHOULD GET OUT AND VOTE! "WISCONSIN: There is a very important Referendum (Question 1) on the April 1st Ballot to amend the State Constitution to require VOTER ID. This, and other Election Integrity measures, including banning Drop Boxes and Same Day Voting with Paper Ballots, can only happen if you GET OUT AND VOTE! (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• Elon Musk believes that YES, prominent Democrats like Maxine Waters, Adam Schiff and Chuck Schumer have received USAID money funneled through NGOs “There is a massive amount of corruption — So they'll send the money overseas to one NGO, then it'll go through a bunch of them, and then I'm highly confident that a bunch of that money then comes back to the United States and lands in the pockets of the people you just mentioned.” “So what happens is there's money that, obviously it's your taxpayer money, that is then sent to various government organizations who then send it to, to NGOs, which, which an NGO is a non-governmental organization. (video)
• X was going to be banned in America if Democrats won the 2024 election. USAID trained the Brazil Supreme Court judge who “in the censorship court seized X, shut down X and that seized Starlink's assets — This is our USAID network doing the training”. America was 100% next.

• @DC_Draino 

• Pretty crazy how Biden and his FBI said the greatest threat to America were “MAGA extremists”. Then we had 4 years of zero incidents except a protest against a stolen election. Now we have Tesla & GOP firebombing every week by Democrats. And the media barely talks about it. (pic)

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: Elon Musk announces he and DOGE are investigating HOW members of Congress are getting obscenely wealthy on their government salaries. Heads are about to ROLL! “How'd they get $20 million if they're earning $200,000 a year? Nobody can explain that. We're gonna try to figure it out, and certainly stop it from happening.” (video)

• @Humanspective

• Pfizer knew lymphocytes would be suppressed or destroyed with 100mcg of mRNA, key cells that protect your body against cancer and pathogens. (video)

• @alx 

• President Trump on Marine Le Pen being banned from running for office: “That's a big deal... a lot of people thought she wasn't going to be convicted of anything... that sounds very much like this country.” (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Greenville, South Carolina. The Fires in SC are now the largest & most severe in the States history. They’ll try blaming it on Climate Change when it’s obviously not.

• @Susancrabtree

• EXCLUSIVE AND BREAKING: SECRET SERVICE ACCUSED OF FAILING TO RESPOND TO 'INSIDER-THREAT' COMPLAINTS. AGENCY HIRED APPLICANT WHO FAILED TERRORISM SECTION OF POLYGRAPH TEST AND NOW ALLOWS HIM TO EVALUATE OTHERS' SECURITY CLEARANCES, WHISTLEBLOWER ALLEGES.

• @EYakoby

• BREAKING: Yale Law School has terminated Helyeh Doutaghi, over her ties to Samidoun, a designated terrorist group. The fact that Yale employed a terrorist is absolutely insane.

• @MAGAVoice

• HOLY SH*T! Karoline Leavitt brings a chart and shuts down Fake News Media with Tariff Facts: - 700% tariff from Japan on rice - 50% tariff from the EU on American dairy - 100% tariff from India on agricultural products. WE COME WITH RECEIPTS. (video)

• @pepesgrandma

• Norm Eisen said his good friend Supreme Court Justice John Roberts was not corrupt and that John went to the Czech Republic for a week so that they could spend time working on American rule of law issues together. John should resign or recuse himself from all of the lawsuit cases that Norm and his partners have filed that are working their way to the SC. Talk about a conflict of interest. Wow! Norm Eisen is great friends with Supreme Court Justice John Roberts! Roberts even stayed with Eisen in Czechoslovakia! Roberts shouldn’t be hearing any of these Trump cases. We know they are all Eisen lawfare!

• @AmyMek

• Breaking Texas - Action Alert! Yasir Qadhi Responds – And Lets Texas Know: The Islamization of America Is “UNSTOPPABLE”. During what is supposed to be one of the holiest, most reflective periods in Islam—Ramadan—EPIC’s Yasir Qadhi took the stage not for peace, not for prayer, but to deliver what seems to be a political declaration of war. And his timing is no accident. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.75 + basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 51.0 + basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.2 +.1%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.3 +2.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%.

• S&P 500 futures -.44%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.58%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Quarter-End Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -.7 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.0 +1.4 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.37 +.28:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.27 +.49: Growth Rate +21.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 27.2 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 -22.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.37 -5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 32.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.9% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.47% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.4% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 41.9%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +532 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +8 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +344 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long