Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 -2.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.2 +2.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.0 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.6 -1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 66.1 -3.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 +2.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -3.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.5 +7.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(286 of 500 reporting) +30.1% +7.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.93 +.71:  Growth Rate +24.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.13% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +72.7% -241.8 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 825.69 +1.10: Growth Rate +108.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.2 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.2 +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.2% -1.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% n/a
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.32 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.8% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.3%(-13.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +576 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -.9% 2) Software -.9% 3) Cyber Security -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MCHB, FTV, QTWO, SXT, MSFT, AOS, THC, AMRZ, TENB, RRR, CAH, PUMP, PH, BLDR, MANE, APPN, BBT, META, FCEL, HUBB, IP, MTG, W, BDC, WTW, DSGN, FLS, WAY, ACHC, CLB, CHKP and OPCH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LKQ 2) XLB 3) ONON 4) SFM 5) METU

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSEOF 2) PUMP 3) ODD 4) CHKP 5) STLA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLV 3) SOXX 4) XLI 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Nuclear +4.7% 2) AI Innovation +3.5% 3) Alt Energy +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BAND, MRAM, NVCR, GTX, GKOS, VISN, MYRG, UAMY, QURE, SFM, ADUR, VIAV, PI, IPX, PRCT, ALMU, QCOM, TER, WCC, PWR, LWLG, TTMI, MICC, USAR, INDV, WOLF, MARA, NTLA, CRML, HLIT, AEHR, LLY, CAT, VSAT, BHE, GIL, AMSC, TEM, GOOG, HGV, CARR, WULF, GVA, AIP, FTDR, IRM, SWKS, ALGM, ORLY, COHU, CEVA, MTZ, H, RIOT, PODD, PPC, MANU, MXL, NN, ITGR, AOSL, DTM, ZGN, CNH, GRRR, LAR, CLS, SMMT, IRTC, NVO, DRVN, ARM, ASH, ABVX, MTRN, BEKE, MO, CYTK, ENPH, AMD, UPBD, SAIA, XNDU, RCL, NUTX, NPKI, SITE, TVTX, ZETA, SANM, INBX, NVTS, BMY, MPWR, HLNE, MGA, NWG, TWLO, CUK, ABBV, BAX, ADTN adn STM, 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XRX 2) IP 3) CARR 4) GTES 5) AUR 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVCR 2) GKOS 3) GTX 4) WCC 5) VIAV

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) COPX 3) VCR 4) XLY 5) SIL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/8.08
• (AON)/6.37
• (AN)/4.51
• (CBOE)/3.34
• (CVX)/.97
• (CHD)/.93
• (CL)/.94
• (D)/.90
• (EL)/.65
• (XOM)/.98
• (IMO)/1.75
• (LAZ)/.51
• (LEA)/3.51
• (LYB)/.28
• (MGA)/1.01
• (MRNA)/-4.45
• (NWL)/-.09
• (PIPR)/.91
• (TEX)/.78
• (TPG)/.59 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.7 in March.
• ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus 78.3 in March. 

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April is estimated to fall to 16.0M versus 16.34M in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (LPX) annual meeting, (ZION) annual meeting, (CHD) annual meeting, (OXY) annual meeting, (R) annual meeting and the (LSCC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -3.4
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 75.4% of Issues Advancing, 22.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.21 +57.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$220.4M
  
• 102 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 56.62% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +8.7

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 17.0% -58.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
• Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 42.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US Invades Iran before 2027 35.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 25.0% -11.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.9 -.9%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 503.75 +1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 -.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 144.2 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -36.5%
• Vix 17.4 -7.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -3.5%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Top Pentagon officials finally put a price tag on the war in Iran so far during a contentious congressional hearing on Wednesday. Analysts say the $25 billion figure they cited underestimates the total cost by a large amount. 
• Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Google's quarterly earnings all tell the same story. AI demand is exploding, and it’s driving a massive spending race. 
• SoftBank plans to establish and float a standalone AI robotics and data center company called Roze in the US, the Financial Times reported, citing sources.
• AvalonBay and Equity Residential are considering a potential combination that could reshape the US apartment market, sources said.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @ZeroHedge

• It is unusual for soon-to-be-former Fed Chair Jay Powell to stay on at the @federalreserve. For someone who speaks so often of norms, his unilateral decision to stay flies in the face of tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring about a new day at the Fed, with accountability, management, and sound policymaking in the lead.It is unusual for soon-to-be-former Fed Chair Jay Powell to stay on at the @federalreserve. For someone who speaks so often of norms, his unilateral decision to stay flies in the face of tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring about a new day at the Fed, with accountability, management, and sound policymaking in the lead. -@SecScottBessent.
• Private Sector Struggles In Major Chinese Industrial Base As Export Orders Shrink: Local Businessmen. 
• *WHITE HOUSE OPPOSES ANTHROPIC PLAN TO EXPAND MYTHOS ACCESS: WSJ. *ANTHROPIC PROPOSED LETTING 70 ADDITIONAL COS USE MYTHOS: WSJ. 
• China Loses Monopoly Over The Rarest Of Rare Earths.
• Japan's Largest Airport Deploys Humanoid Robots For Baggage, Cargo.
• Barclays Maintains Bullish Stance On Nuclear.
• *TRUMP: US REVIEWING THE POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF TROOPS IN GERMANY.
• *ANTHROPIC CONSIDERING FUNDING OFFERS AT OVER $900 BILLION VALUE.
• Putin Presents Victory Day Truce In Ukraine During 90-Minute Trump Call.
• Iranian Currency Hits All-Time Low As Tehran Threatens 'Unprecedented' Response To US 'Maritime Piracy'.
• Amazon margin breakdown. (table)        
• Fractured Fed & Crescendo-ing Crude Trigger Market Mayhem Ahead Of Mega-Cap Tech Tornado. 

• @CNBC 

• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Samsung profit surges over eight-fold to beat estimates as AI boom fuels memory chip crunch.
• Asia-Pacific markets set for weaker open as oil climbs on Iran tensions, Fed holds rates.
• Anthropic in talks with investors to raise funds at $900 billion valuation, higher than OpenAI.   
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after 'Mag 7' titans Alphabet, Amazon report earnings: Live updates. 
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta & more. 

• @TheTranscript 

• $AMZN CEO: Memory inflation is pushing enterprises toward the cloud. “One of the interesting things that we see right now with the change in price and in supply on things like memory is that it is a further impetus pushing companies who have on-premises infrastructure into the cloud. And it's because, in meaningful part, these suppliers are prioritizing their very largest customers, which cloud providers are.”
• $AMZN Amazon CEO @ajassy: ". Starting with AWS, growth continued to accelerate, up 28%YoY, the fastest growth rate in 15 quarters, up $2 billion quarter over quarter, the largest Q4 to Q1 AWS revenue increase ever. AWS is now a 150 billion annualized revenue run rate business. It's very unusual for a business to grow this fast on a base this large. And the last time we saw growth at this clip, AWS was roughly half the size. We've never seen a technology grow as rapidly as AI." 
• $META CFO: Meta continues underestimating AI compute demand. "Our experience so far has been that we have continued to underestimate our compute needs even as we have been wrapping ramping capacity significantly. As the advances in AI have continued and our teams continue to identify compelling new projects and initiatives and now too, there are very compelling internal use cases.”"
• $MSFT CFO: "Looking ahead, the strong results reinforce our conviction to invest the capital required to continue to capture the AI opportunity. And the result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."
• Alphabet CEO: Search is not dead. "AI continues to drive Search usage and queries are at an all-time high. We continue to invest in improvements to AI Overviews which are driving overall Search growth, and we're also seeing strong growth in both users & usage of AI Mode globally". 
• Cloud growth rates: (graph) 
• Qualcomm CEO: "We are pleased to deliver results in line with our guidance, reflecting solid execution as we navigate a challenging memory environment."
  $QCOM: +13% AH".

• @MarioNawful

• Disturbing new allegations have emerged from Epstein's Zorro Ranch in New Mexico... -A man told investigators he was drugged at the ranch and witnessed multiple young men being raped in front of him -Allegations include strangulation deaths during "rough fetish sex," with bodies allegedly buried on the property -Accuser Chauntae Davies described forced "rape, full on, forced sexual rape" and described herself as feeling "like a mouse in a trap" -Davies also recounted girls waking up with doctors hovering over them after unknown medical procedures -Allegations of a baby being born at the ranch and taken by Ghislaine Maxwell -Conversations overheard about "creating the perfect baby from the perfect gene pool" -Zorro Ranch was never fully searched after the feds ordered New Mexico authorities to "stand down" in 2019, citing no probable cause -Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-NM) leading the new probe, says she wants to turn "Epstein files into Epstein trials" The ranch in the middle of the New Mexico desert was the part of the Epstein operation nobody investigated. Six years later, that's finally changing.

• @SenRonJohnson

• Today, I released a report showing that Biden health officials knew that safety signals for COVID-19 injection injuries were being hidden by their VAERS analytic algorithm. They were shown an updated algorithm that signaled serious adverse events, but they refused to use it. Their cover-up jeopardized the health of millions of Americans. Read my interim report and see the records here: (pic)

• @RenzTom

• Is the Comey indictment a joke? James Comey has been indicted again - this time for threatening the President. Threatening the President is absolutely serious and wrong but what about RussiaGate? What about Crossfire Hurricane? What about the coup? I'm not impressed. (pic)

• @DiedSuddenly_

• “The FDA now fully admits the COVID-19 vaccines KILLED American children…” (video)

• @Hedgeye

• China's Real Estate Market has erased all gains from the last 20 years. (graph)

• @JacobKinge

• BREAKING: The Bitcoin conference saw a record low turnout this year, with only a few dozen attendees. Several speakers also didn’t show, and the event ended 4 hours early. (video)

• @MAHA_Action

• Steak ‘N Shake Chief MAHA Officer says the chain will switch to grass fed, grass finished beef nationwide starting June 1. “We are bringing fast food to what it was years ago… Real Ingredients, Real Food that everyone can trust and pronounce.” “We’re going seed oil free and looking at any and all opportunities to remove seed oils.” “One big move that we will be making come June 1st, we’ll be rolling out grass-fed, grass-finished beef to all locations nationwide.” “We tested in local markets and what we expected proved to be true.” “Customers loved it.” (video)

• @AndrewKaufmanMD

• Everything happening behind the scenes is happening with the goal of absolute control of everyone. The push for digital IDs, CBDCs, Smart devices, wearables, Flock cameras, etc is all being done to get everyone and everything on the ledger or central database. That is why it’s so important for every person to resist the small shifts towards this kind of reality.

• @RepKeithSelf

• Imagine a woman fleeing an attacker—and her car won’t start because it thinks she’s impaired. Imagine a farmer injured on the job—his truck won’t start because it thinks he’s drunk. These are the unintended consequences of the Kill Switch mandate. Kill the Kill Switch. (video)

• @dmweisberger

• I just spent 2 incredible weeks in Italy and it is so frustrating to come back to the U.S… How is it possible @RobertKennedyJr that the Italian food supply is so vastly superior. I literally ate bread at every meal, dessert multiple times per day, and generally ate way more than I do in the U.S. Not once did I have acid reflux. Not one headache, no digestive problems, and I didn’t gain any weight. If I ate the same way in the U.S. (I used to at times) I would have gone through a full bottle of Tums and Advil just to get through the day… WHY does the U.S. allow glyphosate in wheat, high fructose corn syrup in food and who knows what in our milk products? The difference in quality of life in Italy vs the U.S. is staggering from their common sense (anti corporate) food regulation. WHY aren’t more people upset about this? The U.S. is the richest country in the world and we eat like one of the poorest.

• @RINO_Removal

• THIS is the biggest problem. Not Democrats. 17 Republican Senators. 17 F-rated voting records. Not opinions — votes. These RINOs campaign as conservatives, then govern like the establishment: • Susan Collins (ME), • Lisa Murkowski (AK), • Lindsey Graham (SC), • Shelley Moore Capito (WV), • Mitch McConnell (KY), • Thom Tillis (NC), • Roger Wicker (MS), • Jerry Moran (KS), • John Thune (SD), • Todd Young (IN), • Bill Cassidy (LA), • Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS), • Chuck Grassley (IA), • John Cornyn (TX), This is how the Senate swamp survives. Not because Democrats win — but because Republicans don’t hold their own accountable. They talk tough. Then vote for more spending, weak borders, and status quo power. Primary season is accountability season. Replace the weak. Elect fighters. Fix the Senate.

• @VigilantFox

• Republicans are once again teaming up with Democrats to ram Digital ID through at the federal level. The bill they’ve just introduced is, if you can believe it, worse than all the others before it. HR 8250, deceptively named the Parents Decide Act, doesn’t just force everyone to link their identity to use apps on their phones, it mandates that they must do it to use ANY operating system. That means Apple, iOS, Windows, Google, Android, even Samsung—basically everything. And once that’s in place, there’s nowhere to step outside of it. (video)

• @RedboxWire

• Memory capex to grow sharply this year, says Samsung Electronics.

• @EricLDaugh

• NOW: The US House just PASSED a 3-YEAR FISA extension that includes a BAN on Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), 235-191. It now heads to the Senate, but Leader Thune vowed that a CBDC ban is DONE FOR in the Senate. The Senate might now strip the anti-CBDC language out when it gets there. (video)

• @WillChamberlain

• Today, the governors of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina should be bringing their legislators into a special session to eliminate their unconstitutional majority-minority congressional districts and to draw new maps to comply with Louisiana v. Callais.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%. 
• Crude Oil 107.40/bbl. +.5% 
• Gold 4,590.4 USD/t oz. +.63%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.65 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.44 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.55 -.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.42% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.71% +4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -1.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.37%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.86%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.