Thursday, April 30, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @TheTranscript 
  • $AAPL Apple Q2 FY 2026 results [USD, YoY]:
  • Atlassian CEO: "...our incredible Q3 results..." CFO: "We delivered strong financial results in Q3. Total revenue growth exceeded expectations, as Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 29% YoY..." $TEAM: +21% AH.
  • SanDisk CEO: "This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk."
    $SNDK: -8% AH.
  • Twilio CEO: "Q1 was a milestone quarter for Twilio, marked by our highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years." $TWLO: +14% AH.
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @TheSCIF
  • @gatlin_didier
  • @ScottPresler
  • @Jeffmfulgham
  • @idahobeef
  • @realannapaulina
  • @LizGunnNZ
  • @yoalexrapz
  • @RandPaul
  • @VoicesUnheard
  • The House has just voted for another 3 years of warrantless spying on Americans. The FISA Section 702 Bill passed 235-191, essentially destroying the 4th Amendment in the process. Only 22 brave souls- *Massie, * Biggs, * Davidson, * Roy, *Burchett, * Crane, * Gosar, *Perry, * Norman, * Clyde, *Self, *Miller, *Hageman, * Luna, * Mills, *Brecheen, * Bishop, Spartz, & MANY more voted NO. The rest were either scared off or bribed. Boebert, Burlison, and Cloud are the worst of the worst, they campaigned on ending this abuse but sold you out when it mattered. Last week’s “no” votes meant absolutely nothing, they were lying all along. Don’t fall for their misleading tweets. TALK IS CHEAP. Check if your rep sold you out too. This isn't just about privacy, it's about control. If they can spy on you without cause, what's left? Or rather, what's next?
  • @redpillb0t
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.64%. 
  • Crude Oil 105.90/bbl. +.8% 
  • Gold 4,641.8 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.51 +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.0 unch.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.74% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 -2.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.2 +2.6% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.0 -1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.6 -1.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 66.1 -3.9% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 +2.0
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.5
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -3.9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.5 +7.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(286 of 500 reporting) +30.1% +7.4 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.93 +.71:  Growth Rate +24.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.13% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +72.7% -241.8 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 825.69 +1.10: Growth Rate +108.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.2 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.2 +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.2% -1.2 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% n/a
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.32 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.8% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.3%(-13.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +576 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -.9% 2) Software -.9% 3) Cyber Security -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MCHB, FTV, QTWO, SXT, MSFT, AOS, THC, AMRZ, TENB, RRR, CAH, PUMP, PH, BLDR, MANE, APPN, BBT, META, FCEL, HUBB, IP, MTG, W, BDC, WTW, DSGN, FLS, WAY, ACHC, CLB, CHKP and OPCH
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) LKQ 2) XLB 3) ONON 4) SFM 5) METU
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSEOF 2) PUMP 3) ODD 4) CHKP 5) STLA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLV 3) SOXX 4) XLI 5) XBI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear +4.7% 2) AI Innovation +3.5% 3) Alt Energy +3.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BAND, MRAM, NVCR, GTX, GKOS, VISN, MYRG, UAMY, QURE, SFM, ADUR, VIAV, PI, IPX, PRCT, ALMU, QCOM, TER, WCC, PWR, LWLG, TTMI, MICC, USAR, INDV, WOLF, MARA, NTLA, CRML, HLIT, AEHR, LLY, CAT, VSAT, BHE, GIL, AMSC, TEM, GOOG, HGV, CARR, WULF, GVA, AIP, FTDR, IRM, SWKS, ALGM, ORLY, COHU, CEVA, MTZ, H, RIOT, PODD, PPC, MANU, MXL, NN, ITGR, AOSL, DTM, ZGN, CNH, GRRR, LAR, CLS, SMMT, IRTC, NVO, DRVN, ARM, ASH, ABVX, MTRN, BEKE, MO, CYTK, ENPH, AMD, UPBD, SAIA, XNDU, RCL, NUTX, NPKI, SITE, TVTX, ZETA, SANM, INBX, NVTS, BMY, MPWR, HLNE, MGA, NWG, TWLO, CUK, ABBV, BAX, ADTN adn STM, 
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) XRX 2) IP 3) CARR 4) GTES 5) AUR 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NVCR 2) GKOS 3) GTX 4) WCC 5) VIAV
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) COPX 3) VCR 4) XLY 5) SIL
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/8.08
  • (AON)/6.37
  • (AN)/4.51
  • (CBOE)/3.34
  • (CVX)/.97
  • (CHD)/.93
  • (CL)/.94
  • (D)/.90
  • (EL)/.65
  • (XOM)/.98
  • (IMO)/1.75
  • (LAZ)/.51
  • (LEA)/3.51
  • (LYB)/.28
  • (MGA)/1.01
  • (MRNA)/-4.45
  • (NWL)/-.09
  • (PIPR)/.91
  • (TEX)/.78
  • (TPG)/.59 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.7 in March.
  • ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus 78.3 in March. 

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April is estimated to fall to 16.0M versus 16.34M in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (LPX) annual meeting, (ZION) annual meeting, (CHD) annual meeting, (OXY) annual meeting, (R) annual meeting and the (LSCC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -3.4
  • 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
  • 75.4% of Issues Advancing, 22.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.21 +57.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$220.4M
  • 102 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 56.62% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.6 +8.7
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 17.0% -58.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 42.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 35.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 25.0% -11.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.9 -.9%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 503.75 +1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.2 -.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 144.2 +.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -36.5%
  • Vix 17.4 -7.6%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -3.5%