Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXSM)/-.82    
• (KRYS)/1.49
• (NCLH)/.14
• (TSN)/.78 

After the Close: 

• (ADTN)/.09
• (AEIS)/1.98
• (ALSN)/2.07
• (BCC)/.42
• (BWXT)/.92
• (FANG)/3.66
• (DUOL)/.77
• (FN)/3.56
• (IAC)/-.34
• (LSCC)/.37
• (ON)/.61
• (OSIS)/2.54
• (POWL)/1.36
• (TDW)/.68
• (RIG)/.08
• (VNO)/.51
• (WMB)/.63 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in Feb.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, SEMICON Southeast Asia Conference, (TTD) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (AFL) annual meeting, (BAC) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting and the Barclays Americas Select Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Tokyo’s key inflation gauge unexpectedly slowed and remained below the Bank of Japan’s target, supporting policymakers’ cautious approach toward resuming interest-rate hikes. 
• Petrobras pumped record oil and gas volumes in the first quarter and ran its refineries near full capacity, underscoring Brazil’s growing importance to global energy markets disrupted by the Iran war. 
• OpenAI's CFO hits back at talk that it's missing internal sales and user targets.
• A recent flurry of data underscores how the AI investment boom is propelling trade, investment and consumption in some corners, while the energy shock from the Iran war is inhibiting them in others.
• Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Aircraft Carrier Strike Group To Leave Middle East, Reducing Footprint Amid Iran War. 
• L3Harris' Missile Business Files To Go Public As Trump's War Economy Prepares For Launch. 
• /3 DOJ’s new report confirms that the SPLC was a major source for the FBI targeting “radical traditional Catholics.”
•  DOJ just released a report confirming AFL’s and @JudiciaryGOP’s findings that the Biden Administration routinely weaponized the federal government against Christians — “at the behest of the SPLC.”
• Massive Lithium Lode In Appalachia Could Power 130 Million EVs: USGS.
• The Rothschild Dynasty Survived Wars and Crises. Will the Epstein Files Tear It Apart?
• CCP Moves To Tighten Oversight Of Gig Workers.
• Trump Says Gas Prices Will Drop "Like a Rock" Once Conflict Ends, As Senator Breaks With GOP Leadership On War Powers.
• $25 Billion: Hegseth Accused Of Lowballing Cost Of Iran War.
• AI Hype Meets Hardware Crunch As US Power Equipment Market Eyes $65 Billion Boom.
• *APPLE SEES 3Q REV +14% TO +17%, ESTIMATE +9.1%.
• Goldman Maps Retailer Exposure To Working-Poor Consumers As Gas Soars.
• *META LOOKING TO DEVELOP MANY NEW APPS USING AI: WSJ.
• AAPL's China sales raise an eyebrow for the 2nd quarter in a row.
• Rising Venezuelan Oil Exports Help Insulate The US From Energy Crisis.
• The Vaccine Safety Signal The Media Still Won't Read.
• Stocks Thrust To New All Time High Amid Powerful Rotations Below The Surface.       

• @CNBC

• Australia and Japan markets set to climb, looking past Iran war escalation fears.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Veeva Systems to join S&P 500 index, replacing Coterra Energy.
• Reddit's CEO calls his company 'the fuel' for artificial intelligence.
• Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500 hits a record to wrap April's trading: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Apple, Roblox, Reddit, Roku & more.
• Apple reports earnings and revenue beat, boosted by services business.
• Tech stocks close out best month since start of Covid pandemic in 2020.    

• @TheTranscript 

• $AAPL Apple Q2 FY 2026 results [USD, YoY]:
• Atlassian CEO: "...our incredible Q3 results..." CFO: "We delivered strong financial results in Q3. Total revenue growth exceeded expectations, as Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 29% YoY..." $TEAM: +21% AH.
• SanDisk CEO: "This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk."
  $SNDK: -8% AH.
• Twilio CEO: "Q1 was a milestone quarter for Twilio, marked by our highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years." $TWLO: +14% AH.

• @MJTruthUltra

• She said it out loud.. Rep Luna — The Butler Assassination Attempt against President Trump had all the trademarks of an INSIDE JOB by the Intelligence Community. - intentional negligence. - Secret Seevice whistleblowers told me they were told to stand down, leaving open the “perfect location” to take the shot. - Biden admin gave limited staff that day. - we still don’t have access to his burner phones. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• If you really want to know what happened to Jeffery Epstein, just ask Maurene Comey, James Comey's daughter. Maurene Comey was the one who inspected and "lost" the original CCTV security footage outside of Epstein's cell.

• @gatlin_didier

• When a tornado hits in 2027… (video)

• @ScottPresler

• Senate Majority Leader Thune wants nothing more than to protect Senator Cornyn. So, because Leader Thune won’t pass the SAVE America Act, I’m asking every Texan to vote FOR Ken Paxton on Tuesday, May 26th. Early Voting: May 18 - May 22.

• @Jeffmfulgham

• For the sake of our state and nation I pray that my fellow Republicans in Georgia will consider voting for anyone other than @GaSecofState Brad Raffesperger, @Georgia_AG Chris Carr, and @GabrielSterling. These three men ignored and/or covered up evidence of massive manipulation in Georgia 2020. I was just one of several citizens who filed formal complaints and presented them evidence.

• @idahobeef

• PALANTIR: The same company that built the architecture for military kill chains overseas just got a $300M sole-source contract to centralize every data point on every American farm through the USDA. No bid and no competition. By 2028, the old systems are gone. What starts as streamlining paperwork ends with algorithms in Washington deciding who gets aid, who gets flagged, and who gets to keep operating. The power isn’t being modernized. It’s being concentrated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And farmers are in the crosshairs now. (video)

• @realannapaulina

• Congress: (pic)
• Fighting to remove pesticide liability protections because giving kids cancer is not something we should be getting behind. Here’s a little insight into Congress after hours. (video) 
• I have now been accosted by two Republican members of Congress for trying to remove pesticide liability protections. Both of which claim to be “God-fearing” Christians, but are shilling for cancer causing pesticide companies. Yikes. One even claims to be pro-life, but is cool with pesticides killing kids.
• A major study found that pesticide mixtures increased: -Childhood leukemia by 23%. -Brain cancer by 36%. -Overall childhood cancer by 30%. And yet we’re still debating whether to protect these chemicals? Remove pesticide protections from the Farm Bill. 

• @LizGunnNZ

• The most vaccinated place in the world is in Ireland. It's a place called Waterford. They had the highest vaccination rate in the world. Then they suffered the highest Covid rate in Ireland. And then they had the highest excess deaths. The local health authority got an award from the World Health Organisation for the way they handled the pandemic. They had the highest death rate, having had the highest vaccination rate. 85% excess deaths at one stage they were on. (video)

• @yoalexrapz

• I’m hearing some republicans don’t want to vote YES on @RepLuna’s amendment to the Farm Bill to remove the chemical liability shield because they “don’t like Luna”. If you put petty political differences over the safety of children you are trash and I will make sure conservative moms know exactly who you are.

• @RandPaul

• I've said it from the beginning: lying to Congress is a felony. Destroying federal records is a felony. Advising others to destroy federal records is a felony. Fauci did all three. His adviser was just indicted. Fauci is next. The deadline to prosecute Fauci is May 11. The DOJ must act now.

• @VoicesUnheard

• The House has just voted for another 3 years of warrantless spying on Americans. The FISA Section 702 Bill passed 235-191, essentially destroying the 4th Amendment in the process. Only 22 brave souls- *Massie, * Biggs, * Davidson, * Roy, *Burchett, * Crane, * Gosar, *Perry, * Norman, * Clyde, *Self, *Miller, *Hageman, * Luna, * Mills, *Brecheen, * Bishop, Spartz, & MANY more voted NO. The rest were either scared off or bribed. Boebert, Burlison, and Cloud are the worst of the worst, they campaigned on ending this abuse but sold you out when it mattered. Last week’s “no” votes meant absolutely nothing, they were lying all along. Don’t fall for their misleading tweets. TALK IS CHEAP. Check if your rep sold you out too. This isn't just about privacy, it's about control. If they can spy on you without cause, what's left? Or rather, what's next?

• @redpillb0t

• Walmart is officially going full force and is rolling out digital price tags in all 4,600 US stores, with digital screens replacing paper price tags by the end of 2026. Every shelf. Every store. All controlled remotely from one central system. This gives Walmart the ability to change the price of any product at any moment. Based on demand, time of day, inventory levels, or whatever algorithm they choose. And the moment Walmart moves, every major retailer in the country will follow. Once everything turns digital, it's game over. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.64%. 
• Crude Oil 105.90/bbl. +.8% 
• Gold 4,641.8 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.51 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.0 unch.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.74% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 -2.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 77.2 +2.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .00 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.0 -1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.6 -1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 66.1 -3.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.3 +2.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 21.1 +2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -3.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.5 +7.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(286 of 500 reporting) +30.1% +7.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 344.93 +.71:  Growth Rate +24.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.13% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +72.7% -241.8 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 825.69 +1.10: Growth Rate +108.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.2 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.2 +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.2% -1.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% n/a
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.38% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.32 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.8% (-1.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 85.3%(-13.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +576 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +140 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers -.9% 2) Software -.9% 3) Cyber Security -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MCHB, FTV, QTWO, SXT, MSFT, AOS, THC, AMRZ, TENB, RRR, CAH, PUMP, PH, BLDR, MANE, APPN, BBT, META, FCEL, HUBB, IP, MTG, W, BDC, WTW, DSGN, FLS, WAY, ACHC, CLB, CHKP and OPCH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LKQ 2) XLB 3) ONON 4) SFM 5) METU

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSEOF 2) PUMP 3) ODD 4) CHKP 5) STLA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) XLV 3) SOXX 4) XLI 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +2.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Nuclear +4.7% 2) AI Innovation +3.5% 3) Alt Energy +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• BAND, MRAM, NVCR, GTX, GKOS, VISN, MYRG, UAMY, QURE, SFM, ADUR, VIAV, PI, IPX, PRCT, ALMU, QCOM, TER, WCC, PWR, LWLG, TTMI, MICC, USAR, INDV, WOLF, MARA, NTLA, CRML, HLIT, AEHR, LLY, CAT, VSAT, BHE, GIL, AMSC, TEM, GOOG, HGV, CARR, WULF, GVA, AIP, FTDR, IRM, SWKS, ALGM, ORLY, COHU, CEVA, MTZ, H, RIOT, PODD, PPC, MANU, MXL, NN, ITGR, AOSL, DTM, ZGN, CNH, GRRR, LAR, CLS, SMMT, IRTC, NVO, DRVN, ARM, ASH, ABVX, MTRN, BEKE, MO, CYTK, ENPH, AMD, UPBD, SAIA, XNDU, RCL, NUTX, NPKI, SITE, TVTX, ZETA, SANM, INBX, NVTS, BMY, MPWR, HLNE, MGA, NWG, TWLO, CUK, ABBV, BAX, ADTN adn STM, 

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XRX 2) IP 3) CARR 4) GTES 5) AUR 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVCR 2) GKOS 3) GTX 4) WCC 5) VIAV

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) VGT 2) COPX 3) VCR 4) XLY 5) SIL

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume