Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript
  • @WallStEngine
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%. 
  • Crude Oil 69.75/bbl. +.4% 
  • Gold 3,997.0 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.40 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.69 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.0 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.47% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% +3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.36%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build Out Optimism, Positive Earnings Outlook Revisions, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 +.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.0 -.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.19 -3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.4 -.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 140.5 -.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.3 -1.7% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.3 +1.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 59.5 +2.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.9 +1.3
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.40 -3.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +188.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 371.51 +.73:  Growth Rate +26.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.60% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.31 +.60: Growth Rate +72.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 +.1 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 28.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171. +.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.57 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 16.4% +.7 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% +4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.43 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 50.0% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.7%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,385 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -143 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +43 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +190 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gambling -2.0% 2) Medical Equipment -2.0% 3) Road & Rail -1.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SIBN, VZ, SNN, CSL, LOGI, DLR, SDGR, T, PATK, SLS, VSH, ATRO, FOXF, ENOV, QXO, MSTR, EVMN, LE, CNXC, HTFL, MAMA and CRCL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XLB 2) SOLS 3) AVAV 4) NTR 5) LPTH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CNXC 2) NVCT 3) MAMA 4) OLN 5) ALGN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) PPA 2) XLU 3) XBI 4) IGV 5) BAI


Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Drone Tech +5.3% 2) Space +3.8% 3) Semis +3.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ABVX, AMBA, FCEL, AVEX, AVAV, HSAI, UMAC, MXL, MYE, OUST, FIGR, AKTS, IPX, ASYS, PGY, VSAT, HQ, ZYME, RARE, LPTH, BOT, CTNM, ONTO, TENB, KLAC, APD, SLDB, SHAZ, UCTT, DRTS, AXON, NKTR, WTS, PACS, NXT, PACS, QLYS, TW, SYM, FBIN, SEDG, KYMR, XNCR, MKSI, ON, IMTX, WYFI, SRPT, RAPP, VPG, GMAB, AMAT, RKLB, LRCX, ACMR, ELF, KTOS, CGNX, SYNA, EYPT, JCI, EXE, GENB, LCII, RBRK, CADL, ASML, NXST, ALB, EYPT, FBRX, KYIV, NESR, CBOE, XPEV, BLZE, LPLA, ALMS, CEPT, LPLA, DAR, SION, VKTX, KOD, ALKT, NTR, METC, ADUR, BELFB, FOXA and MEC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CGNX 2) NN 3) AVEX 4) HSAI 5) INDI 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AVAV 2) GVH 3) RZLV 4) ZYME 5) HSAI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) SMH 3) XLI 4) QTEC 5) XLF
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (FDS)/4.45
  • (GIS)/.80
  • (MSM)/1.27
  • (UNF)/1.91 
After the Close: 
  • (GBX)/.60
Economic Releases 

5:30 am EST

  • Challenger Job Cuts for June. 

8:15 am EST

  • ADP Employment Change for June is estimated to fall to 120K versus 122K in May.

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 53.8 versus 54.0 in May.
  • ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 77.8 versus 82.1 in May.
  • Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in April. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,902,800 barrels versus a -6.088,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -559,600 barrels versus a +2,064,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +10,200 barrels versus a +3,064,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.3% versus a -.6% decline prior.

Afternoon

  • Omdia Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to rise to 16.1M versus 16.0M in May

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Warsh speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (GRBK) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +1.4
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 52.8% of Issues Advancing, 44.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.43 -23.1%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$34.6M
  • 110 New 52-Week Highs, 55 New Lows
  • 55.9% (-.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.5 +1.7
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 5.0% -1.0 percentage point 
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 15.0% -4.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 5.0% unch.
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 2.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.7 +1.3%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 63.0 -6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 454.5 -17.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.6 +1.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 163.9 +1.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.3 -24.1%
  • Vix 16.7 -5.4%
  • Total Put/Call .83 -9.8%