Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,719.0 unch.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 53,384.4 -.3%

• NASDAQ 26,490.4 +.2%

• Russell 2000 2,971.8 -.1%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,744.0 -.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 329.3 +1.3%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 37.4 +3.5%

• Wilshire 5000 76,275.8 unch.

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,963.8 +.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,529.4 -.3%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 928. -.8%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 271.0 -.6% 
  

• NYSE Technology 9,492.8 +.4%

• Transports 20,968.8 -2.1%

• Utilities 1,081.4 +.24%

• MSCI Europe Banks 137.7 +1.5%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 68.46 +2.0%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 264.9 -.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 136.8 +.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 624,978 -.4%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.6 +69.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 429 +114

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -14.9 -2.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 123,449 +1.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,906,740 +.9%

• Total Put/Call .82 -4.7%

• OEX Put/Call .71 -3.2%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.15 +71.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 130.4 +1.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.29 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.17 -17.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 -1.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .57 -30.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 9.2 -6.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.92 +7.3%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.95 +1.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,875.9 -2.9%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 55.0 -4.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.979 Trillion +.6%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.344 Million

• AAII % Bulls 39.7 +20.7%

• AAII % Bears 37.6 -15.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -12.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 416.7 +2.9%

• Crude Oil 91.7/bbl. +9.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 320.9 +5.2%

• Natural Gas 2.97 +2.7%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 83.7 USD/Megawatt +1.3% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 72.50 euros/megawatt-hour +8.9%
  

• Heating Oil 453. +3.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 153.0 (1,000/metric ton) +9.7%

• Gold 4,424.0 -.9%
• Silver 66.0 -.9%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 181.2 +.7%

• Copper 665.3 +1.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 394.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,150.0 USD/metric tonne +4.5%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .98(price per million tokens) -7.6% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.5 -1.1%  

• CME Lumber 567.5 +.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,606.7 unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 444.50 USD/Short Ton +4.3%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.7% +10.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.7 -1.9 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.06 +7.8%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 201.3 +21.8% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 +9.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 205.7 +98.1%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.4
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +53.2% +1.1 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 398.66 +2.95:  Growth Rate +21.5% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +132.6% -1.7 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 971.48 +6.21: Growth Rate +44.7% -41.4 percentage points, P/E 19.5 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.8 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 77.0 -10.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.2 -.8 point

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 41.6%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 58.4%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 99.2 -.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,930.8 +.3%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 79,673 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 207.8 -2.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.28 -.4%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 41.25 +3.5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.78% +5.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% -12.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.690 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.102 Billion -4.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.1 -2.6%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.5 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 81.0 -1.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.8 -.3%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.90 -1.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.4 -2.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.0 -3.1%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.7 -1.8%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.2 -1.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 122.1 -.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.40% unch.: CPI YoY +3.38% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +26.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 +3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 20.5 +.75 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 +.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 49.9 -.5% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.6 -.2%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 97.0 -1.9%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 432.5 -.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 207.0 -2.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.6 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 136.9 -.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 111.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 556.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.4% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,441.4B -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,250 +.7%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.7 -.2%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.75% +4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 247,300 +.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.70% +30.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +23.0% +6.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $180.0M -22.2%

• Nationwide Gas $4.15/gallon +.06/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,488.0 +12.3%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,465.1/40 ft Box -.2%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,837.0 +.2%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 275.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 105.4 +13.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 303,191 +2.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,7,095 +36.4% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.6 +.5 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 44.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%

Leading Sectors

• Computer Hardware +4.8%

• Energy +3.7%
• Shipping +3.6%

• Agriculture +3.4%
  

• Steel +2.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Restaurants -3.6%

• Defense -3.7%
  

• Road & Rail -3.8%

• Cyber Security -4.0%
  

• Software -4.5%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (23)

• BBCP, NX, TYRA, TITN, CBRS, AEHR, SNDK, ALAB, AXTI, UCTT, CLYM, FIVE, AGCO, DOO, FRVO, SWBI, BPI, BETA, FOUR, QUAD, CMBT, DOCU, SFNC, CNH

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (10)

• CDNS, MAMA, ZS, SNPS, EFX, OXM, FICO, PATH, LULU and GWRE

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Technical Selling, Pharma/Insurance Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +730 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +32 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/1.01
• (UNFI)/.61 
• (GME)/.27 

After the Close: 

• (BRZE)/.15
• (CASY)/6.75
• (AVO)/.12
• (TTAN)/.35 

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to 99.2 versus 99.8 in July.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for July is estimated to fall to $11.34B versus $14.173B in June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-Note auction, NY Fed Inflation Expectations Index, weekly ADP employment change index, CB Employment Trends Index for Aug., KBW Insurance Conference, Jefferies Industrials Conference, Wolfe Research TMT Conference, Goldman Sachs Communicopia Tech Conference, Citi TMT Conference, Cantor Healthcare Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, (IONQ) investor day and the (NKE) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 -.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 34.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Crude Oil 91.81/bbl. +.6% 
• Gold 4,523.60 USD/t oz. -.35%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.31 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.26 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 128.9 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.77% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.02% -5.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.01%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour Mideast War De-escalation Rhetoric, Falling Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.2 -.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.4 -.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.13 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 -1.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 136.9 -1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.1 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.0 +3.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.5 +1.8

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.4 +2.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.4 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(492 of 500 reporting) +53.2% +.7 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 397.78 +.54:  Growth Rate +21.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.5% -1.8 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 971.40 +.89: Growth Rate +44.7% -42.4 percentage points, P/E 19.5 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.91 +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 71.2 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.0 unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.7% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.76% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.2% (-5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 42.9%(+5.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +17 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -1.6% 2) Foods -1.5% 3) Agriculture -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HPE, VALE, AVGO, GIII, FRVO, CLYM, TCOM, AEHR, TTC, GOLD, TSN, CPB, CIEN, VSXY, MEI and RARE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LUMN 2) PATH 3) SNOW 4) AS 5) PBR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WIX 2) CAPR 3) REPL 4) PSNY 5) TSN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) DRAM 2) GDX 3) ICLN 4) IYW 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume