Click here for a graph of the recently released Poverty Rate (1959-2003).
Bottom Line: The current U.S. Poverty Rate of 12.5% is down from over 22% in 1959 and over 15% in 1983 and 1993. The stock market and economy began to collapse in 2000, resulting in a move higher in the poverty rate from very low levels. The ensuing corporate scandals, recession and 9/11 terrorist attacks resulted in an increase in poverty through 2003. However, recent data showing Americans' net worth at all-time high levels, very strong economic growth since the end of the recent recession and the creation of over 1.2 million new jobs this year will likely result in a fairly large decrease in the U.S. poverty rate for 2004.
Sunday, August 29, 2004
Weekly Outlook
There are a number of important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week. Economic reports include Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Deflator(YoY), Chicago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales, Final 2Q Productivity, Final Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, Change in Non-farm Payrolls, Average Weekly Hours and ISM Non-Manufacturing. Chicago Purchasing Manager, Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid, Change in Non-farm Payrolls and ISM Non-Manufacturing all have market-moving potential.
Accredo Health(ACDO), Cooper Companies(COO), Engineered Support Systems(EASI), Corinthian Colleges(COCO), Cardinal Health(CAH), Shuffle Master(SHFL), Mandalay Resort Group(MBG) and Albertson's(ABS) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also several other events that have market-moving potential. The Republican National Convention, Boston Scientific's 2004 Update, Altera's Business Update and Intel's Mid-quarter Update could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week higher on light volume as terrorism fears subside, optimism increases over the effects of falling energy prices on future economic growth, President Bush rises in the polls with pro-business political rhetoric and economic data show stabilizing growth. Measures of investor anxiety will likely fall again this week and then begin to head higher ahead of the 9/11 anniversary. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Buy signals and the Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.
Accredo Health(ACDO), Cooper Companies(COO), Engineered Support Systems(EASI), Corinthian Colleges(COCO), Cardinal Health(CAH), Shuffle Master(SHFL), Mandalay Resort Group(MBG) and Albertson's(ABS) are some of the more important companies that release quarterly earnings this week. There are also several other events that have market-moving potential. The Republican National Convention, Boston Scientific's 2004 Update, Altera's Business Update and Intel's Mid-quarter Update could also impact trading this week.
Bottom Line: I expect U.S. stocks to finish the week higher on light volume as terrorism fears subside, optimism increases over the effects of falling energy prices on future economic growth, President Bush rises in the polls with pro-business political rhetoric and economic data show stabilizing growth. Measures of investor anxiety will likely fall again this week and then begin to head higher ahead of the 9/11 anniversary. My short-term trading indicators are still giving Buy signals and the Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.
Saturday, August 28, 2004
Market Week in Review
S&P 500 1,107.77 +.86%
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's market action was positive. U.S. stocks were able to add to the very strong gains seen the prior week, notwithstanding fears of terrorism ahead of the Republican Convention and mixed economic data. Breadth continued to improve and most sectors registered gains. Technology and financial stocks led the way as inflation fears subsided and interest rates declined. Commodity prices fell across the board as evidenced by the 2.23% decrease in the CRB Index. Volume was very light, however I am not reading too much into this. Traders and investors usually go on vacation this time of year. The Olympics and terrorism jitters contributed to the lackluster environment as well. The main negative from last week's trading action was that investor complacency measures rose. However, it is hard to gauge how much of this was a result of the very low volume.
Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's market action was positive. U.S. stocks were able to add to the very strong gains seen the prior week, notwithstanding fears of terrorism ahead of the Republican Convention and mixed economic data. Breadth continued to improve and most sectors registered gains. Technology and financial stocks led the way as inflation fears subsided and interest rates declined. Commodity prices fell across the board as evidenced by the 2.23% decrease in the CRB Index. Volume was very light, however I am not reading too much into this. Traders and investors usually go on vacation this time of year. The Olympics and terrorism jitters contributed to the lackluster environment as well. The main negative from last week's trading action was that investor complacency measures rose. However, it is hard to gauge how much of this was a result of the very low volume.
Economic Week in Review
ECRI Weekly Leading Index 131.40 -.23%
Existing Home Sales for July were 6.72 million versus estimates of 6.81 million and 6.92 million in June. The 2.9% decline from June's record-high was the first drop in seven months, Bloomberg reported. The median sales price was $191,300, up 8.7% from July of last year. Economists attributed the higher prices to tight supply. Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said that a six month supply of houses is required for a balanced market, compared with the 4.3 months of supply NAR reported for July. "I've been looking for these numbers to fade for several months now, because they've been so incredibly high," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. Re-sales account for 85% of the residential real estate market. New home sales, which had their best months ever in May and June, account for the rest, Bloomberg reported.
Durable Goods Orders for July rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.0% rise and an increase of 1.1% in June. Durable Goods Less Transportation rose .1% in July versus estimates of a 1.3% increase and a .3% decline in June. The report showed bookings surged for commercial aircraft and demand increased for business equipment. Businesses, flush with profits amid rising sales, are using the cash to replace aging equipment and replenish inventories, Bloomberg reported. Orders waiting to be filled rose the most since March. Excluding defense hardware, which fell 16.2% last month, orders increased 2.7%, the biggest rise since March, as well. "We are very confident going forward," said Michael Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials.
New Home Sales for July were 1.13 million versus estimates of 1.3 million and 1.21 million in June. "Mortgage rates have been much lower recently, and I wouldn't write off the housing market until we see a clear turn," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. The median selling price of new homes increased 9% from July of last year. The inventory of new homes for sale rose to a 4.2 month supply, Bloomberg reported.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 343K versus estimates of 335K and 333K the prior week. Continuing Claims rose to 2897K versus estimates of 2885K and 2892K prior. This was the first time claims rose in four weeks, boosted by more filings related to Hurricane Charley, Bloomberg said. "We may see some additional upward pressure for another two weeks," from job losses related to the hurricane, said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital. Hurricane recovery efforts are expected to create more jobs in Southwest Florida than are lost over the longer-run, Bloomberg reported.
Preliminary 2Q GDP rose 2.8% versus expectations of a 2.7% increase and a prior estimate of 3.0%. Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of a 1.3% rise and a prior estimate of 1.3%. Preliminary GDP Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of a 3.2% increase and a prior estimate of 3.2%. Corporate profits after taxes for the quarter rose 17.9% in the 12 months ended in June, Bloomberg said. Business investment in equipment and software was revised up in the quarter to the strongest pace since the third quarter of last year. The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, rose 1.7% at an annual rate in the second quarter after a 1.8% rise initially reported and a 2.1% pace in the first three months of the year. Nominal GDP rose at a 6.1% annual rate for the second quarter after rising at a 7.4% pace in the first quarter, Bloomberg reported.
The final reading from the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index came in at 95.9 versus estimates of 94.0 and a prior estimate of 94.0. "Confidence is relatively high because we're in the middle of an expansion with fairly rapid growth in the economy and low interest rates," Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. Job gains typically contribute to optimism, and the median forecast of economists suggests that payrolls expanded at a faster pace this month after slowing in July, Bloomberg reported.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data was mildly negative. While home sales have slowed from their blistering pace earlier in the year, the market remains very healthy. Supply is still low relative to demand. Mortgage rates averaged 6.29% in June when properties closed for the July readings. Since then, rates have fallen 47 basis points to an average mortgage rate of 5.82%. Durable Goods Orders should continue to remain robust through year-end as companies take advantage of tax incentives that are set to expire at the end of the year. Hurricane Charley is currently disrupting readings on jobless claims in a negative way. The hurricane is likely affecting other economic readings, as well. As rebuilding takes hold, the economy should benefit. U.S. GDP has recently slowed as a result of anti-business political rhetoric, less tax-cut stimulus, terrorism fears, higher commodities prices, the slowing Chinese economy, unseasonably wet weather and higher interest rates. Most of these problems are currently diminishing or reversing themselves which should lead to a substantial acceleration in GDP growth during the fourth quarter. Moreover, most of the trouble with the current slowdown is due to inflation, as nominal GDP grew 6.1% in the second quarter. Commodities prices have been the main source of inflation. Most commodities have now entered intermediate-term downtrends, which bodes well for future inflation readings and thus future GDP reports. Consumer confidence remains relatively strong and should rise with improvements in Iraq, subsiding terrorism fears, falling interest rates, declining energy prices and a pick-up in hiring.
Existing Home Sales for July were 6.72 million versus estimates of 6.81 million and 6.92 million in June. The 2.9% decline from June's record-high was the first drop in seven months, Bloomberg reported. The median sales price was $191,300, up 8.7% from July of last year. Economists attributed the higher prices to tight supply. Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, said that a six month supply of houses is required for a balanced market, compared with the 4.3 months of supply NAR reported for July. "I've been looking for these numbers to fade for several months now, because they've been so incredibly high," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors. Re-sales account for 85% of the residential real estate market. New home sales, which had their best months ever in May and June, account for the rest, Bloomberg reported.
Durable Goods Orders for July rose 1.7% versus estimates of a 1.0% rise and an increase of 1.1% in June. Durable Goods Less Transportation rose .1% in July versus estimates of a 1.3% increase and a .3% decline in June. The report showed bookings surged for commercial aircraft and demand increased for business equipment. Businesses, flush with profits amid rising sales, are using the cash to replace aging equipment and replenish inventories, Bloomberg reported. Orders waiting to be filled rose the most since March. Excluding defense hardware, which fell 16.2% last month, orders increased 2.7%, the biggest rise since March, as well. "We are very confident going forward," said Michael Splinter, CEO of Applied Materials.
New Home Sales for July were 1.13 million versus estimates of 1.3 million and 1.21 million in June. "Mortgage rates have been much lower recently, and I wouldn't write off the housing market until we see a clear turn," said Michael Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. The median selling price of new homes increased 9% from July of last year. The inventory of new homes for sale rose to a 4.2 month supply, Bloomberg reported.
Initial Jobless Claims for last week rose to 343K versus estimates of 335K and 333K the prior week. Continuing Claims rose to 2897K versus estimates of 2885K and 2892K prior. This was the first time claims rose in four weeks, boosted by more filings related to Hurricane Charley, Bloomberg said. "We may see some additional upward pressure for another two weeks," from job losses related to the hurricane, said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital. Hurricane recovery efforts are expected to create more jobs in Southwest Florida than are lost over the longer-run, Bloomberg reported.
Preliminary 2Q GDP rose 2.8% versus expectations of a 2.7% increase and a prior estimate of 3.0%. Preliminary 2Q Personal Consumption rose 1.6% versus estimates of a 1.3% rise and a prior estimate of 1.3%. Preliminary GDP Price Deflator rose 3.2% versus estimates of a 3.2% increase and a prior estimate of 3.2%. Corporate profits after taxes for the quarter rose 17.9% in the 12 months ended in June, Bloomberg said. Business investment in equipment and software was revised up in the quarter to the strongest pace since the third quarter of last year. The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, rose 1.7% at an annual rate in the second quarter after a 1.8% rise initially reported and a 2.1% pace in the first three months of the year. Nominal GDP rose at a 6.1% annual rate for the second quarter after rising at a 7.4% pace in the first quarter, Bloomberg reported.
The final reading from the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index came in at 95.9 versus estimates of 94.0 and a prior estimate of 94.0. "Confidence is relatively high because we're in the middle of an expansion with fairly rapid growth in the economy and low interest rates," Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics. Job gains typically contribute to optimism, and the median forecast of economists suggests that payrolls expanded at a faster pace this month after slowing in July, Bloomberg reported.
Bottom Line: Overall, last week's economic data was mildly negative. While home sales have slowed from their blistering pace earlier in the year, the market remains very healthy. Supply is still low relative to demand. Mortgage rates averaged 6.29% in June when properties closed for the July readings. Since then, rates have fallen 47 basis points to an average mortgage rate of 5.82%. Durable Goods Orders should continue to remain robust through year-end as companies take advantage of tax incentives that are set to expire at the end of the year. Hurricane Charley is currently disrupting readings on jobless claims in a negative way. The hurricane is likely affecting other economic readings, as well. As rebuilding takes hold, the economy should benefit. U.S. GDP has recently slowed as a result of anti-business political rhetoric, less tax-cut stimulus, terrorism fears, higher commodities prices, the slowing Chinese economy, unseasonably wet weather and higher interest rates. Most of these problems are currently diminishing or reversing themselves which should lead to a substantial acceleration in GDP growth during the fourth quarter. Moreover, most of the trouble with the current slowdown is due to inflation, as nominal GDP grew 6.1% in the second quarter. Commodities prices have been the main source of inflation. Most commodities have now entered intermediate-term downtrends, which bodes well for future inflation readings and thus future GDP reports. Consumer confidence remains relatively strong and should rise with improvements in Iraq, subsiding terrorism fears, falling interest rates, declining energy prices and a pick-up in hiring.
Weekly Scoreboard*
Indices
S&P 500 1,107.77 +.86%
Dow 10,195.01 +.84%
NASDAQ 1,862.09 +1.31%
Russell 2000 551.67 +.68%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 953.30 +.22%
Put/Call .75 -21.88%
NYSE Arms 1.02 +54.54%
Volatility(VIX) 14.71 -8.06%
AAII % Bulls 41.53 +19.07%
US Dollar 89.77 +1.87%
CRB 270.33 -2.23%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 405.40 -2.43%
Crude Oil 43.18 -7.58%
Unleaded Gasoline 117.69 -7.13%
Natural Gas 5.19 -8.85%
Base Metals 108.20 -2.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -.14%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.82% +.17%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +3.46%
Internet +2.06%
Computer Boxmakers +1.90%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -.95%
Broadcasting -2.11%
Iron/Steel -2.17%
*% Gain or loss for the week
S&P 500 1,107.77 +.86%
Dow 10,195.01 +.84%
NASDAQ 1,862.09 +1.31%
Russell 2000 551.67 +.68%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 953.30 +.22%
Put/Call .75 -21.88%
NYSE Arms 1.02 +54.54%
Volatility(VIX) 14.71 -8.06%
AAII % Bulls 41.53 +19.07%
US Dollar 89.77 +1.87%
CRB 270.33 -2.23%
Futures Spot Prices
Gold 405.40 -2.43%
Crude Oil 43.18 -7.58%
Unleaded Gasoline 117.69 -7.13%
Natural Gas 5.19 -8.85%
Base Metals 108.20 -2.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.22% -.14%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.82% +.17%
Leading Sectors
Fashion +3.46%
Internet +2.06%
Computer Boxmakers +1.90%
Lagging Sectors
Semis -.95%
Broadcasting -2.11%
Iron/Steel -2.17%
*% Gain or loss for the week
Friday, August 27, 2004
Mid-day Update
S&P 500 1,107.39 +.21%
NASDAQ 1,862.02 +.49%
Leading Sectors
Biotech +1.20%
Disk Drives +1.19%
Semis +.95%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.36%
I-Banks -.49%
Airlines -3.67%
Other
Crude Oil 43.01 -.21%
Natural Gas 5.16 -.56%
Gold 404.80 -1.17%
Base Metals 108.20 -.21%
U.S. Dollar 89.69 +.44%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -.28%
VIX 14.90 -.07%
Put/Call .97 +19.75%
NYSE Arms .93 -7.0%
Market Movers
CHIR -7.9% after saying it will delay shipments of its Fluvirin flu shots until October because testing indicated some products might not be sterile.
LCAV +10.2% after Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy.
NX +4.6% after beating 3Q estimates, raising 04 outlook, boosting dividend and announcing 1M share buyback.
CHTT +6.9% saying it won final court approval of a settlement of as much as $76M in claims that an additive in its Dexatrim diet drug had caused some users to have strokes and raising 3Q forecast.
OSIS -17.9% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
JUPM -11.4% after saying CEO and COO sold 1M shares.
KWD -6.11% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Preliminary GDP for 2Q rose 2.8% versus estimates of 2.7% and 3.0% prior.
Preliminary Personal Consumption for 2Q increased 1.6% versus estimates of 1.3% and 1.0% prior.
GDP Price Deflator for 2Q rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and 3.2% prior.
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August was 95.9 versus estimates of 94.0 and a prior reading of 94.0.
Recommendations
Citi SmithBarney said to Buy PNR, target $40. Citi reiterated Buy on CHS, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. CRK raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LCAV raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $27. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MON.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly higher mid-day as economic data met expectations and oil prices continue to fall. France's new foreign minister, Michel Barnier, told a conference of the country's ambassadors yesterday that France "is not great when it is arrogant" and "not strong if it is alone," the NY Times reported. About half of video game players say they reduced their tv viewing this year, or plan to next year, the NY Post reported. California legislators scrapped a proposal to build a Las Vegas-style casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Hewlett-Packard plans to unveil printer ink today that it hopes will brand ink like Intel's "Intel Inside" advertising campaign branded computer chips, the LA Times reported. The Bond Market Association has stepped up political contributions to Republicans, the Bond Buyer said. The U.S. dollar headed for its biggest weekly advance against the euro in a month as policy makers at the Federal Reserve said a slowdown in the U.S. economy during the second quarter won't last and oil prices retreated, Bloomberg reported. Russia's security service said it found traces of explosives in the wreckage of one of two Russian planes that crashed on Tuesday night, killing 89 people, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari said he's "optimistic" the crisis in Najaf has been resolved after three weeks of clashes between militiamen loyal to al-Sadr and U.S.-led coalition forces, Bloomberg said. GE's NBC will get 20% less for advertising time on its spin-off comedy, "Joey," this year than it did for the show's predecessor, "Friends," Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as my longs are slightly higher and my shorts are rising. I added a few new longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. One of my new longs is LRCX and I am using a $21.75 stop-loss on this position. The market continues to consolidate recent gains in an orderly fashion. The CRB Index is falling again and the Put/Call ratio is spiking which are positives. As well, interest rates and oil prices are still declining. I continue to anticipate a resumption of the recent rally next week. The main worries of investors are improving. Energy prices are falling, interest rates are declining, inflation fears are falling, Iraq is improving, Bush's poll numbers are rising, terrorism fears are subsiding and economic growth is stabilizing. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering.
NASDAQ 1,862.02 +.49%
Leading Sectors
Biotech +1.20%
Disk Drives +1.19%
Semis +.95%
Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.36%
I-Banks -.49%
Airlines -3.67%
Other
Crude Oil 43.01 -.21%
Natural Gas 5.16 -.56%
Gold 404.80 -1.17%
Base Metals 108.20 -.21%
U.S. Dollar 89.69 +.44%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -.28%
VIX 14.90 -.07%
Put/Call .97 +19.75%
NYSE Arms .93 -7.0%
Market Movers
CHIR -7.9% after saying it will delay shipments of its Fluvirin flu shots until October because testing indicated some products might not be sterile.
LCAV +10.2% after Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy.
NX +4.6% after beating 3Q estimates, raising 04 outlook, boosting dividend and announcing 1M share buyback.
CHTT +6.9% saying it won final court approval of a settlement of as much as $76M in claims that an additive in its Dexatrim diet drug had caused some users to have strokes and raising 3Q forecast.
OSIS -17.9% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
JUPM -11.4% after saying CEO and COO sold 1M shares.
KWD -6.11% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.
Economic Data
Preliminary GDP for 2Q rose 2.8% versus estimates of 2.7% and 3.0% prior.
Preliminary Personal Consumption for 2Q increased 1.6% versus estimates of 1.3% and 1.0% prior.
GDP Price Deflator for 2Q rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and 3.2% prior.
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August was 95.9 versus estimates of 94.0 and a prior reading of 94.0.
Recommendations
Citi SmithBarney said to Buy PNR, target $40. Citi reiterated Buy on CHS, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. CRK raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LCAV raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $27. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MON.
Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly higher mid-day as economic data met expectations and oil prices continue to fall. France's new foreign minister, Michel Barnier, told a conference of the country's ambassadors yesterday that France "is not great when it is arrogant" and "not strong if it is alone," the NY Times reported. About half of video game players say they reduced their tv viewing this year, or plan to next year, the NY Post reported. California legislators scrapped a proposal to build a Las Vegas-style casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Hewlett-Packard plans to unveil printer ink today that it hopes will brand ink like Intel's "Intel Inside" advertising campaign branded computer chips, the LA Times reported. The Bond Market Association has stepped up political contributions to Republicans, the Bond Buyer said. The U.S. dollar headed for its biggest weekly advance against the euro in a month as policy makers at the Federal Reserve said a slowdown in the U.S. economy during the second quarter won't last and oil prices retreated, Bloomberg reported. Russia's security service said it found traces of explosives in the wreckage of one of two Russian planes that crashed on Tuesday night, killing 89 people, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari said he's "optimistic" the crisis in Najaf has been resolved after three weeks of clashes between militiamen loyal to al-Sadr and U.S.-led coalition forces, Bloomberg said. GE's NBC will get 20% less for advertising time on its spin-off comedy, "Joey," this year than it did for the show's predecessor, "Friends," Bloomberg reported.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as my longs are slightly higher and my shorts are rising. I added a few new longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. One of my new longs is LRCX and I am using a $21.75 stop-loss on this position. The market continues to consolidate recent gains in an orderly fashion. The CRB Index is falling again and the Put/Call ratio is spiking which are positives. As well, interest rates and oil prices are still declining. I continue to anticipate a resumption of the recent rally next week. The main worries of investors are improving. Energy prices are falling, interest rates are declining, inflation fears are falling, Iraq is improving, Bush's poll numbers are rising, terrorism fears are subsiding and economic growth is stabilizing. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering.
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