Friday, August 27, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,107.39 +.21%
NASDAQ 1,862.02 +.49%


Leading Sectors
Biotech +1.20%
Disk Drives +1.19%
Semis +.95%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.36%
I-Banks -.49%
Airlines -3.67%

Other
Crude Oil 43.01 -.21%
Natural Gas 5.16 -.56%
Gold 404.80 -1.17%
Base Metals 108.20 -.21%
U.S. Dollar 89.69 +.44%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -.28%
VIX 14.90 -.07%
Put/Call .97 +19.75%
NYSE Arms .93 -7.0%

Market Movers
CHIR -7.9% after saying it will delay shipments of its Fluvirin flu shots until October because testing indicated some products might not be sterile.
LCAV +10.2% after Raymond James upgrade to Strong Buy.
NX +4.6% after beating 3Q estimates, raising 04 outlook, boosting dividend and announcing 1M share buyback.
CHTT +6.9% saying it won final court approval of a settlement of as much as $76M in claims that an additive in its Dexatrim diet drug had caused some users to have strokes and raising 3Q forecast.
OSIS -17.9% after beating 4Q estimates and lowering 1Q guidance.
JUPM -11.4% after saying CEO and COO sold 1M shares.
KWD -6.11% after missing 2Q estimates and lowering 3Q forecast.

Economic Data
Preliminary GDP for 2Q rose 2.8% versus estimates of 2.7% and 3.0% prior.
Preliminary Personal Consumption for 2Q increased 1.6% versus estimates of 1.3% and 1.0% prior.
GDP Price Deflator for 2Q rose 3.2% versus estimates of 3.2% and 3.2% prior.
Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for August was 95.9 versus estimates of 94.0 and a prior reading of 94.0.

Recommendations
Citi SmithBarney said to Buy PNR, target $40. Citi reiterated Buy on CHS, target $48. Citi reiterated Buy on FLEX, target $22. CRK raised to Sector Outperform at CIBC. LCAV raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, target $27. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MON.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are quietly higher mid-day as economic data met expectations and oil prices continue to fall. France's new foreign minister, Michel Barnier, told a conference of the country's ambassadors yesterday that France "is not great when it is arrogant" and "not strong if it is alone," the NY Times reported. About half of video game players say they reduced their tv viewing this year, or plan to next year, the NY Post reported. California legislators scrapped a proposal to build a Las Vegas-style casino near San Francisco, the LA Times reported. Hewlett-Packard plans to unveil printer ink today that it hopes will brand ink like Intel's "Intel Inside" advertising campaign branded computer chips, the LA Times reported. The Bond Market Association has stepped up political contributions to Republicans, the Bond Buyer said. The U.S. dollar headed for its biggest weekly advance against the euro in a month as policy makers at the Federal Reserve said a slowdown in the U.S. economy during the second quarter won't last and oil prices retreated, Bloomberg reported. Russia's security service said it found traces of explosives in the wreckage of one of two Russian planes that crashed on Tuesday night, killing 89 people, Bloomberg reported. Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari said he's "optimistic" the crisis in Najaf has been resolved after three weeks of clashes between militiamen loyal to al-Sadr and U.S.-led coalition forces, Bloomberg said. GE's NBC will get 20% less for advertising time on its spin-off comedy, "Joey," this year than it did for the show's predecessor, "Friends," Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as my longs are slightly higher and my shorts are rising. I added a few new longs this morning, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 100% net long. One of my new longs is LRCX and I am using a $21.75 stop-loss on this position. The market continues to consolidate recent gains in an orderly fashion. The CRB Index is falling again and the Put/Call ratio is spiking which are positives. As well, interest rates and oil prices are still declining. I continue to anticipate a resumption of the recent rally next week. The main worries of investors are improving. Energy prices are falling, interest rates are declining, inflation fears are falling, Iraq is improving, Bush's poll numbers are rising, terrorism fears are subsiding and economic growth is stabilizing. I expect U.S. stocks to rise modestly into the close on short-covering.

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