Thursday, August 05, 2004

Thursday Close

S&P 500 1,080.70 -1.63%
NASDAQ 1,821.63 -1.80%


Leading Sectors
Gaming -.35%
Fashion -.44%
Homebuilders -.50%

Lagging Sectors
Iron/Steel -2.66%
Retail -3.17%
Airlines -3.68%

Other
Crude Oil 44.37 -.09%
Natural Gas 5.71 -.04%
Gold 395.00 +.05%
Base Metals 110.01 -.52%
U.S. Dollar 89.64 -.04%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.40% -.44%
VIX 18.32 +13.02%
Put/Call .78 -13.33%
NYSE Arms 2.83 +121.09%

After-hours Movers
DOVP +30.9% after saying it may receive as much as $455 million from Merck for the right to experimental drugs for depression and other diseases.
BSX -4.7% after the FDA said it may broaden a probe of its products.
DTSI -24.2% after disappointing 2Q results.
BCSI -24.2% after lowering 1Q estimates.
NVDA -22.1% after missing 2Q estimates substantially.
ATYT -5.6% on weakness from NVDA.

Recommendations
Prudential raised RL to Overweight. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on PFE, GILD, DIS and AL. Goldman reiterated Underperform KPP.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished slightly lower today Google's IPO may be delayed be a week to the week of Aug. 16, CNBC reported. Saudi Arabia arrested one of its most wanted militants, Fares al-Zahrani, Agence France-Presse reported. Hedge funds had their first quarterly loss in two years in the three months to June 30, the Financial Times reported. Duke Energy CEO Anderson told CNBC that he sees natural gas prices around $5-$6 per million BTUs for the next couple of years, Bloomberg said. Pixar Animation Studios said second-quarter profit rose 91% as customers bought its "Finding Nemo" movie on home video. Coca-Cola overstated its volume of beverages sold for the past three years because of errors in reporting bottled-water sales in Indonesia, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as my declining gaming and medical longs offset my falling Russian ADR and software shorts. A few of my medical and security longs hit stop-losses in the afternoon and I exited the positions, leaving the Portfolio 50% net short. It was a very bad day for the Bulls. Oil set new highs, the NASDAQ made new lows for the year, the advance/decline line was very poor and the Put/Call ratio fell. There were a few positives today. The Arms Index soared, the VIX is climbing, interest rates fell, the AAII % Bulls fell and initial jobless claims were better-than-expected. It finally appears that investor complacency is beginning to decline. This is a positive development and is necessary to set the stage for the very strong rally I see in the fourth quarter.

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