Monday, August 23, 2004

Monday Watch

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
PERY/-.30
TOY/-.03
WWE/.06

Splits
HTLD 3-for-2

Economic Data
None of note.

Weekend Recommendations
Cashin' In had guests that were positive on SYMC, ASA, POSS, EK, CHK, UBL and mixed on MCD. Wall Street Week w/Fortune had guests that were positive on AEOS, AAPL, CVX, SII, UTH, PLMO and XMSR. Barron's had positive comments on BSX, GET, MYL and MNST. Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on STZ, KO, EBAY, ENH, NKE and Underperform on PBG, EK and GAS.

Weekend News
The price of a barrel of oil will fall to around $30 within "a few months," Cinco Dias reported, citing comments from World Bank chief economist Francois Bourguignon. General Motors may hire Wolfgang Bernhard, who had helped DaimlerChrysler AG by cutting costs and creating new products, the Detroit Free Press reported. Among major Japanese companies, 96% expect the country's economy to expand, signaling optimism has increased the most since the early 1990's, the Sankei newspaper reported. Pakistan's security forces arrested nearly a dozen al-Qaeda-linked terror suspects plotting attacks on key sites, including the country's parliament and the U.S. Embassy in the capital of Islamabad, Agence France-Presse reported. U.S. newspapers are considering cutting some of their comic strips in order to reduce costs, yet risk alienating long-term readers, the NY Times said. Iran will delay the planned start-up of its first nuclear reactor until 2006, a year later than previously scheduled, Agence France-Presse reported. Morgan Stanley has invested $35 million in two Israeli venture capital funds in the last few months for the first time since 2001, Haaretz reported. The U.S. government is taking steps to help farmers and ranchers protect the nation's food supply from possible attacks by terrorists, the LA Times reported. China is making higher quality goods than competitors in Eastern Europe, though the perception is that Chinese products are inferior, the Financial Times reported. Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, Rio Tinto Plc and BHP Billiton plan to spend a combined $5.3 billion over the next four years to increase the output of iron ore, the main commodity used to make steel, by over 50%, the Financial Times said. Sony and Time Warner are nearing final negotiations for separate bids for MGM, valuing the company's debt and equity as much as $4.8 billion, the Financial Times reported. Southwest Air wants to boost revenue by overhauling its schedule in October, the Wall Street Journal reported. Pfizer Inc. faces the possibility of a 25% decline in revenue as at least four of its best-selling drugs lose patent protection in the next three years, the Wall Street Journal reported. The U.S. Department of Justice has started a criminal investigation of the medical-supply industry to determine whether hospitals are overcharging Medicare and other government health programs, the NY Times reported. U.S. warplanes and helicopters attacked followers of al-Sadr in the Iraqi city of Najaf, as negotiations to end the standoff continued, the AP reported.

Late-Night Trading
Asian indices are mixed, -.50% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.07%.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect U.S. stocks to open modestly higher in the morning after another weekend with no major terrorism and stabilizing oil prices. Volume will likely be light again this week as many on Wall Street vacation. The Portfolio is 125% net long heading into the week.

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