Thursday, August 19, 2004

Mid-day Update

S&P 500 1,089.98 -.47%
NASDAQ 1,820.25 -.61%


Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.24%
Iron/Steel +1.0%
Commodity +.81%

Lagging Sectors
Hospitals -1.24%
Disk Drives -1.75%
Airlines -2.46%

Other
Crude Oil 47.05 +1.51%
Natural Gas 5.45 +1.26%
Gold 409.00 +.59%
Base Metals 111.05 +1.37%
U.S. Dollar 87.73 -.40%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.21% -.50%
VIX 16.83 +3.76%
Put/Call .81 -17.35%
NYSE Arms .93 +116.28%

Market Movers
SNPS -29.7% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PETM -5.6% after missing 2Q revenue estimates and reiterating 3Q guidance.
MYL +10.5% after saying billionaire financier Carl Icahn got U.S. FTC permission to buy as much as 12% of the company's shares.
CAI +13.4% after beating 4Q estimates, raising 1Q guidance and saying it has "no deep concern" about the possible findings of a forthcoming Army report probing prisoner abuse in Iraq.
TZOO +10.9% after moving from the Nasdaq SmallCap market to the Nasdaq National market.
PETC +8.7% after beating 2Q estimates and raising 3Q outlook.
CLE +9.2% after beating 2Q forecast and raising 3Q estimates.
NAV -4.9% after beating 3Q forecast and maintaining forward guidance.
DV -11.7% after missing 4Q estimates.
AMED -8.4% after announcing a 2M share secondary offering.
HRL -9.1% after beating 3Q estimates and lowering 4Q outlook.

Economic Data
Initial Jobless Claims for last week were 331K versus estimates of 335K and 334K the prior week.
Continuing Claims were 2904K versus estimates of 2874K and 2888K prior.
Leading Indicators fell .3% in July versus estimates of a .1% decline and a .1% fall in June.
Philly Fed fell to 28.5 in August versus estimates of 30.0 and a reading of 36.1 in July.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on MDT, NAV, WMT, IBM, PETC and IBM. Goldman reiterated Underperform on FRX. Goldman reiterated Underperform on newspaper stocks. TRMK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. WTNY rated Underweight at JP Morgan. TELK rated Overweight at JP Morgan. CELG rated Overweight at JP Morgan. TLB cut to Underweight at Prudential, target $25. NPSP rated Underweight at JP Morgan. Merrill Lynch rated MON Focus 1 stock of the week.

Mid-day News
U.S. stocks are lower mid-day on rising energy prices and weakness in the healthcare sector. More than 400,000 Florida residents remained without electricity five days after Hurricane Charley passed through and utility companies say downed lines are the biggest hurdle to restoring power, the New York Times reported. Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil supplier, probably will propose that OPEC raise it price target to a range of $28-$38/bbl., El Nacional reported. Amazon.com plans to buy Joyo.com, China's largest online retailer, Reuters reported. A man who died Monday at an Anderson County, South Carolina, jail after being stunned by a Taser gun already had poor health, the AP reported. China may bid for OAO Yukos Oil's biggest production unit if Russia sells the subsidiary to collect back taxes, Interfax said. Limited Brands said second-quarter profit rose 45%, helped by new products at its Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works chains, Bloomberg said. Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi issued a "final call" to Shiite Muslim cleric al-Sadr to disarm his militia and end a two-week uprising in Najaf and other southern cities that the government says has killed hundreds of people, Bloomberg said. Women who eat more fruits, vegetables and protein-rich foods before becoming pregnant may reduce their child's risk of developing leukemia, according to a study published in the journal Cancer, Bloomberg reported. The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the third straight week as more companies retained workers, Bloomberg said.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher mid-day as my alternative energy, software and homebuilding longs are rising and my healthcare shorts are falling. I have not traded today and the Portfolio is still 125% net long. While the major indices are lower, a number of market leading stocks are rising and the advance/decline line isn't that bad. I expect U.S. stocks to remain near currrent levels into the close.

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