Wednesday, August 11, 2004

Wednesday Close

S&P 500 1,075.79 -.30%
NASDAQ 1,782.42 -1.45%


Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.21%
Biotech +1.99%
Drugs +.98%

Lagging Sectors
Internet -3.99%
Networking -4.68%
Semis -5.16%

Other
Crude Oil 44.77 -.07%
Natural Gas 5.63 +.29%
Gold 398.40 +.13%
Base Metals 109.37 +.82%
U.S. Dollar 88.85 +.07%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.27% -.41%
VIX 18.04 +3.26%
Put/Call .82 -20.39%
NYSE Arms 1.30 +170.83%

After-hours Movers
MAMA +5.76% after reporting strong 2Q results.
BOBE -10.47% after missing 1Q forecast and lowering 05 outlook.
AAP -4.39% after beating 2Q estimates, lowering 3Q/4Q forecast and announcing $200M stock buyback.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on FD, PFE and Underperform on RA, NSM.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished lower today after a late-afternoon rally pushed shares well off their lows for the day. After the close, Sony Corp. is being investigated by the U.S. International Trade Commission to determine if they company's digital cameras and cellular phones violate an Ampex Corp. patent, Kydo News Service. Crude oil rose after the Energy Department said that U.S. inventories declined and Tropical Storm Bonnie caused companies to reduce oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. government doesn't have to pay damages for destroying a pharmaceutical plant in Sudan that allegedly supplied chemical weapons to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terror network, Bloomberg reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished lower today as my declining technology longs more than offset my falling Chinese and Russian ADR shorts. I added a few new longs in the afternoon, bringing the Portfolio's market exposure to 75% net long. One of my new longs is TKLC and I am using a stop-loss of $16.50 on this position. Today's action was encouraging despite the damage in the technology sector. Most stocks finished well off their daily lows and the advance/decline line improved significantly in the afternoon. As well, the Arms Index spiked and the VIX rose, which is also positive. Finally, the CRB Index finished near its lows for the day which continues to point towards at least an intermediate-term peak in inflation worries. With demand for oil decelerating from the slowing U.S. and Chinese economies and supply increasing from OPEC and others, it is only a matter of time before oil heads back towards $35/bbl. in my opinion. As terrorism fears diminish somewhat over the next couple of months, it is likely the current terror premium will fall. I expect this to begin to happen within the next 6 weeks.

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