Tuesday, August 17, 2004

Tuesday Close

S&P 500 1,081.71 +.22%
NASDAQ 1,795.25 +70%


Leading Sectors
Broadcasting +2.42%
Networking +2.20%
Homebuilders +1.95%

Lagging Sectors
Commodity -.64%
Energy -2.30%
Oil Service -2.48%

Other
Crude Oil 46.20 -.13%
Natural Gas 5.39 +.22%
Gold 406.40 -.07%
Base Metals 110.81 -.80%
U.S. Dollar 88.06 +.11%
10-Yr. T-note Yield 4.19% -1.68%
VIX 17.02 -3.13%
Put/Call .93 +10.71%
NYSE Arms .87 +135.14%

After-hours Movers
NTAP +6.96% after beating 1Q estimates and raising 2Q outlook.
PLAB +4.24% after beating 3Q estimates.

Recommendations
Goldman Sachs reiterated Outperform on AVP, CLX and PG.

After-hours News
U.S. stocks finished higher today, boosted by positive economic data and strong earnings reports. After the close, the Chinese government will invest $16.9 billion through 2020 in alternative energy sources, including wind and solar power, Nikkei English News said. Mexico's economy grew 3.9% in the second quarter, the faster pace since the global economy began plunging into recession in 2000, on resurgent demand from the U.S. for the country's electronics, oil and metals, Bloomberg reported. Applied Materials, the world's biggest maker of semiconductor-equipment, reported its largest quarterly profit in almost 4 years after chipmakers doubled purchases of its machines, Bloomberg said. Network Appliance, whose products store and distribute data for customers including the Vatican and Coca-Cola, said first-quarter net income jumped 73% as software sales surged, Bloomberg reported. Google said its IPO is being delayed for SEC approval of its paperwork, the AP reported.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished substantially higher today as my homebuilding, retail and semi longs all rose and my steel and Chinese ADR shorts were mixed. I did not trade in the afternoon and the Portfolio is still 75% net long. An interesting shift took place today with respect to investor psychology. Oil rose to another record and the major U.S. indices rallied. As well, interest rates and commodity-related stocks fell. The market seems to be saying that inflation is not nearly the problem the bears and media made it out to be and that oil is approaching at least an intermediate-term top. A fall in oil prices back to around the mid-30's/bbl. during the next couple of months should solidify this view.

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