Indices
- Russell 2000 1,124.92 +.78%
- S&P 500 High Beta 29.29 +.21%
- Wilshire 5000 18,912.74 +.28%
- Russell 1000 Growth 909.65 +.04%
- Russell 1000 Value 909.65 +.45%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 443.99 -.46%
- Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,418.29 +.11%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 858.80 -.89%
- Transports 7,199.37 -.16%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 104.53 +.32%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 41.90 +.39%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,141.21 -.12%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 950.43 +.05%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 194,426 -.21%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 149 -359
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 31.03 -20.70%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 313,160 +2.49%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,620,640 -6.64%
- Total Put/Call .94 +25.33%
- OEX Put/Call 1.39 +183.67%
- ISE Sentiment 144.0 -5.88%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.26 +.57%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.45 -4.86%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.07 +3.33%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.59 +.23%
- Smart Money Flow Index 12,053.21 +.42%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.663 Trillion -.20%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow $5.407 Billion n/a
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 272.05 +2.40%
- Heating Oil 303.43 +3.12%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 187.68 +.73%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 360.67 USD/Ton +5.81%
- China Iron Ore Spot 136.50 USD/Ton -.22%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,386.88 +.98%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.40% +20 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .0170 +203.5%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 119.60 +.17%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.70 -.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.30 -1.7 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 34.0% chance of no change, 66.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 12/18
- US Dollar Index 80.65 -.18%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.14 +1.52%
- Yield Curve 246.0 +5 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.74% +4 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.864 Trillion n/a
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.88 +18.88%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.0 -3.05%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 62.50 -1.37%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 101.73 -.68%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 230.0 +4.44%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 108.16 +.92%
- Egypt Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 665.0 -2.92%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 353.0 -10 basis points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% +1 basis point
- TED Spread 17.0 -.25 basis point
- 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.75 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 69.64 -1.15%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 101.56 -5.11%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 288.70 +1.46%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 103.0 +1.0 basis point
- M1 Money Supply $2.587 Trillion -1.30%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,054.10 -1.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 338,500 -5,500
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.2% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.22% -13 basis points
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 451.10 -2.30%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort -34.60 -.7 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.40% +10 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.24/gallon +.04/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 1,499 -1.19%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,043.77 unch.
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.50 +7.1%
- Rail Freight Carloads 266,643 +.52%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (16)
- KIRK, UBNK, DAKT, TTS, LZB, CENJF, CYBX, AMWD, LMOS, ENTA, RCKB, CSII, BONT, MINI, AEC and TMUS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (16)
- JEC, DAR, SJM, GOOD, NHI, SGMS, ARUN, STAN, PDCO, CPB, FOR, DWRE, BBY, GME, AMRI and LQDT
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.41 -1.97%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.15 +.67%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.59 -1.49%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.90 -2.73%
- ISE Sentiment Index 171.0 -17.79%
- Total Put/Call .90 +13.92%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 69.12 -2.0%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.57 -4.22%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 62.50 unch.
- Emerging Market CDS Index 289.35 -2.02%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 9.75 -.75 basis point
- TED Spread 17.0 +.25 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .07% unch.
- Yield Curve 247.0 -4 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $136.50/Metric Tonne +.15%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.70 -.3 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -14.30 -.2 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +205 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
- Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- France’s Economy Most Serious Threat for EU, Bankers Say. France’s
economy poses the most serious threat to Europe’s recovery from a debt
crisis that has crippled growth and driven unemployment to record highs,
according to a survey of bankers and their regulators in Frankfurt. The
outlook for France is more concerning than prospects for Italy, Spain
or Germany, said 61 percent of respondents in the electronic survey held
at a conference in the euro-area’s financial capital today. France “desperately needs leadership,” Timothy Adams, the Institute of International Finance Chief Executive Officer, said
in a panel discussion at the conference. “There’s a lack of
concern about competitiveness in France,” Andre Sapir, an
economist and senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think
tank, said on the same panel.
- Italy, Spain Face Budget Scrutiny as Euro Ministers Meet. Italy
and Spain will defend their 2014 spending plans at a meeting of
euro-area finance ministers today, risking a clash over economic
frailties that could
undermine efforts to pull the currency bloc out of a debt crisis
now in its fifth year. Fabrizio Saccomanni of Italy and Luis de Guindos of Spain
will be called upon to justify their draft budgets at the
meeting in Brussels, amid fears that complacency is setting in
following the easing of bond-market pressure over the past 18
months.
- Most European Stocks Rise Amid German Confidence Report.
Most European stocks advanced as German business confidence rose to the
highest level since April 2012 and investors weighed comments by
European Central Bank officials. Daily Mail & General Trust Plc
(DMGT) gained 3.5 percent after Barclays Plc upgraded its recommendation
on the newspaper publisher. Whitbread Plc climbed 3 percent after
JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised its rating of the company to overweight,
similar to buy. Rhoen-Klinikum AG fell 3.3 percent after saying its
second-biggest shareholder sued to block the sale of 43 clinics to
Fresenius SE’s Helios unit. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent to 322.77 at the close, as almost three shares in the gauge increased for
every two that fell.
- Indian Banks’ Rising Bad Debt Is ‘Major Challenge,’ RBI Says. Rising
bad loans at Indian lenders
remain “a major challenge” amid a slowdown in Asia’s third-largest
economy, the nation’s central bank said. Nonperforming loans rose to 986
billion rupees ($15.7 billion) at the end of March from 652 billion
rupees a year earlier, the Reserve Bank of India said in a report
yesterday on
the country’s banking industry. The ratio of sour debt to total
lending swelled to 3.6 percent from 3.1 percent. More debtors are
finding it harder to pay off loans in a
$1.8 trillion economy that is projected to grow in the year
ending March 2014 at the weakest pace in more than a decade. Rising bad
loans contributed to a 35 percent slump in State Bank of India (SBIN)’s
net income for the quarter ended Sept. 30. “Macro stress tests indicate that if the current
macroeconomic conditions persist, the credit quality of
commercial banks could deteriorate further,” the Mumbai-based
RBI said. “In the short term, the stress on banks’ asset
quality remains a major challenge.”
- Pakistani Doctor Who Hunted Bin Laden Accused of Murder. A
Pakistani doctor who helped the
U.S. track down Osama bin Laden faces charges in a murder case after a
woman accused him of causing the death of her son from an operation six
years ago, a defense lawyer said. A court in the Khyber tribal
region along the border with Afghanistan has registered a case based on
the complaint by the woman against the doctor, Shakil Afridi, his lawyer
Samiullah Afridi said by phone from the city of Peshawar. Doctor Afridi already is imprisoned after being sentenced to 33 years in jail in 2012 for providing funding and medical
assistance to the militants of the now-defunct group Lashkar-e-Islami. He hasn’t been charged for covert ties to the U.S.
Central Intelligence Agency that the Pakistani government
denounced.
Wall Street Journal:
- For Small Businesses, a Hidden Tax in Health Care? Smaller Companies Expected to Bear the Brunt of Little-Known Fee for Insurers.
Starting next year, small businesses are among those poised to bear the
brunt of a little known tax created by the Affordable Care Act that
will impose an annual "fee" on health-insurance companies. The fee is
expected to bring in a total of $8 billion next year and as much as
$14.3 billion by 2018, according to the legislation, and will be spread
out among insurers based on the percent of the market they cover.
Fox News:
CNBC:
- Cramer: 'There's bubbling everywhere'. (video) "In
other words, there's bubbling everywhere, and it does worry me," Cramer
said Friday on "Squawk on the Street." "We saw too much cloud. We saw
too much organic food. And now I think we're getting too much of a whole
set of areas."
Zero Hedge:
ValueWalk:
CNN:
- Obama approval rating sinks to new low in CNN poll. According to a CNN/ORC poll released Thursday, 41% of Americans approve of the job the President's
doing in the White House, the lowest level for that crucial indicator in
CNN polling. Fifty-six percent questioned say they disapprove of
Obama's performance, an all-time high in CNN surveys.
Washington Post:
- The Democrats’ naked power grab. “Congress
is broken,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday before
holding a party-line vote that disposed of rules that have guided and
protected the chamber since 1789. If Congress wasn’t broken before, it
certainly is now. What Reid (Nev.) and his fellow Democrats effectively did was take the
chamber of Congress that still functioned at a modest level and turn it
into a clone of the other chamber, which functions not at all. They
turned the Senate into the House.
Reuters:
Telegraph:
-
Oil is both the lifeblood and the poison of the global economy. For all the talk of green power, it’s black gold that still drives the
economic cycle - and the key to prices is Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest
producer.
According to research by the Centre for Global Energy Studies, the minimum
price Saudi Arabia needs at the present level of production to sustain
government expenditure is $86 per barrel. This compares with $64 just four
years ago. Saudi has jacked up public spending substantially following the
Arab Spring in an attempt to keep the locals quiescent. The survival of the
sheikhs carries a very high price, and may in itself have come to dictate
the level of the global oil price.
Handelsblatt:
- Dijsselbloem Says France Must Do More to Reform. Eurogroup
chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem is in favor of deadlines for reforms,
citing the Dutch finance minister.
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Oil Tankers -1.38% 2) Alt Energy -1.03% 3) REITs -.66%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- EPAM, TFM, ADC, TXTR, ROST, HCLP, LL, OLED, DLLR, LNDC, NNI, NGVC, HIBB, EIX, P, RST, NTLS, SNP, ARCW, SFM, INTC, TTS, PETM, PRLB, FWM, BURL, MOVE and EGOV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) JNK 2) CCL 3) ANN 4) HYG 5) INTC
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) EIX 2) LL 3) TGT 4) ROST 5) NUE
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Biotech +2.83% 2) Airlines +1.14% 3) Coal +.64%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- SPLK, ARUN, BIIB, TWC, FL, BERY, WETF, NUS, GILD and NOW
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SPLK 2) TWC 3) OLED 4) WIN 5) ROST
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) INTC 2) P 3) BIIB 4) BA 5) SPLK
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- McLaren Sees China Slowdown Persisting Amid Bling Crackdown. McLaren Automotive Ltd., maker of the million-dollar P1 supercar,
said it has yet to see signs of a recovery in demand in China since the
ruling Communist Party began cracking down on conspicuous extravagance late last year.
“The visibility that used to be an asset -- we used to be OK just a few
years ago -- now it’s not really a plus,” Mirko Bordiga, regional
director of the British supercar maker, said in an interview yesterday
in Guangzhou, southern China. “There are many issues that are
in the market that doesn’t really let us hope that the market is growing
that much.”
- IMF’s Zhu Sees Tapering as Key Risk to Growth in Emerging Asia. Several
emerging economies in Asia face a “key source of risk” in the eventual
tapering of monetary stimulus in advanced nations, an International
Monetary Fund official said. “Global growth is in low gear and downside
risks
persist,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Zhu Min said in prepared remarks
for a conference in Port Vila, Vanuatu. He didn’t specify which
countries were at risk from the scaling back of so-called quantitative
easing policies that the central banks of Japan and the U.S. have
adopted.
- Asian Stocks Rise First Time in Four Days as Yen Weakens. Asian
stocks rose, with the benchmark regional index climbing for the first
time in four days, as the yen weakened against the dollar, boosting the
earnings outlook for Japanese exporters. Toyota Motor Corp. (7203),
Asia’s largest carmaker, advanced 1.8 percent in Tokyo. SoftBank Corp.
gained 4.1 percent after a person familiar with the matter said Daniel
Loeb’s Third Point
LLC hedge fund has taken a stake of more than $1 billion in the
Japanese wireless carrier. Glorious Property Holdings Ltd.
soared by a record 33 percent in Hong Kong after Chinese
billionaire Zhang Zhirong offered as much as HK$4.57 billion
($589 million) to take the real-estate developer private. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5 percent to 141.74 as
of 11:26 a.m. in Hong Kong, with seven of the 10 industry groups
on the gauge climbing.
- Rebar Rises in Shanghai as Steel Mill Maintains Product Price.
Steel reinforcement-bar futures in Shanghai advanced as China’s biggest
producer of the building material maintained product prices. Rebar
for May delivery, the most-active contract on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange, advanced as much as 0.6 percent to 3,635 yuan ($597) a metric
ton, before trading at 3,622 yuan at
11:22 a.m. local time. Futures were poised for the first weekly
gain since Nov. 1.
- Taylor, Jamison Outpace Commodity Hedge Funds Suffering Losses. Commodity
hedge funds run by George “Beau” Taylor and Stephen Jamison are posting
gains this year as peers lose money and investors. The $860 million
Taylor Woods Masters Fund advanced 18 percent from January through
October, heading for the best year since the February 2011 debut,
according to a letter to clients obtained by Bloomberg News. Jamison’s
$1.5 billion Koppenberg
Macro Commodity Fund Ltd. rose about 6 percent in the period,
according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
- Iran Deal Falters as Negotiators Cite Little Progress. Negotiators
weren’t able to reach agreement on a first-step accord to resolve a
decade-old dispute over Iran’s nuclear program, reducing the likelihood
that foreign ministers will arrive to strike a deal after two days of
negotiations in Geneva. Talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Catherine Ashton, the European Union foreign policy chief
representing world powers at the talks, broke up late yesterday
after more than six hours of intense consultations, the EU said
in a statement. The sides will reconvene today.
Wall Street Journal:
- Democrats Rein In Senate Filibusters. In Contentious Move, Bar Now Set at 51 Votes, Down From 60, to Advance President's Nominees. A
bitterly divided Senate voted Thursday to
eliminate filibusters for most presidential nominees, a momentous and
politically risky step that limits the ability of Republicans to block
President Barack Obama's choices for executive-branch and most judicial
posts. The change gives Mr. Obama more flexibility to shape the federal
judiciary
and to staff his administration for the remaining years of his
presidency. But it could hand more power to Republicans if the GOP
should win the White House and control of the Senate.
Fox News:
- California health exchange votes to not enact Obama health plan 'fix'. California’s health insurance exchange voted Thursday to not allow
insurance companies to extend policies that do not meet current benefit
requirements under ObamaCare, despite President Obama’s “fix” last week. The Covered California Board of Directors unanimously decided to
stick with its current approach of phasing out the non-compliant
policies by year’s end, saying Obama’s request that insurers let
Americans keep those plans through 2014 will not help consumers in the
end.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Washington Examiner:
National Journal:
MNI:
- Official Says PBOC to Continue to Force Banks to Deleverage.
People's Bank of China will mainly use higher money-market interest
rates to push banks to reduce leverage, citing a PBOC official who is
involved in monetary policy. The central bank will also continue to
drain money from market through open market operations in the coming
months, the official said. China interbank financing activities have
been growing at an abnormal pace, the official said. China may issue
rules early next year to bank banks from using tri-party agreements to
transfer assets off their balance sheets so they can boost lending.
China's M2 money supply is too high while velocity is very slow, the
official said. Without deleveraging, the market will get more volatile,
the official said.
The
Obama administration will press ahead Friday with tough requirements
for new coal-fired power plants, moving to impose for the first time
strict limits on the pollution blamed for global warming.
The proposal would help reshape where Americans get electricity, away
from a coal-dependent past into a future fired by cleaner sources of
energy. It's also a key step in President Barack Obama's global warming
plans, because it would help end what he called "the limitless dumping
of carbon pollution" from power plants.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20130919_ap_0f857b20e0c144a5a1e1b9dddc9f9d72.html#YRThyDOhArykUeYy.99
Telegraph:
Economic Daily:
- HTC
Asks Suppliers to Cut Prices by 20%. Co. asks suppliers of components,
such as touch panels, casings and camera lenses, to lower prices, citing
suppliers.
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.50 +1.0 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 103.25 -1.0 basis point.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- JOLTs Job Openings for September are estimated to fall to 3840 versus 3883 prior.
11:00 am EST
- Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity for November is estimated at 6 versus 6 in October.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Taruillo speaking, Fed's George speaking, (Y) investor day and the (NVS) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.