Indices
- Russell 2000 1,144.72 -.60%
- S&P 500 High Beta 33.31 +.24%
- Wilshire 5000 20,626.50 -.05%
- Russell 1000 Growth 916.38 +.10%
- Russell 1000 Value 1,000.07 -.06%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 460.63 -.82%
- Solactive US Cyclical 136.63 -.46%
- Morgan Stanley Technology 975.16 +.26%
- Transports 8,428.15 +.51%
- Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.08 +3.13%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 44.68 +1.41%
- HFRX Equity Hedge 1,178.78 +.50%
- HFRX Equity Market Neutral 969.84 +.01%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 228,227 -.17%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 344 +393
- Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 44.74 -8.17%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 371,444 -7.05%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,642,836 -4.58%
- Total Put/Call .94 +4.44%
- OEX Put/Call 2.52 +170.97%
- ISE Sentiment 88.0 -6.38%
- Volatility(VIX) 12.69 +5.22%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.74 +11.7%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.46 +1.87%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 5.89 -1.17%
- Smart Money Flow Index 11,664.26 +.81%
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.563 Trillion -.09%
- ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.951 Billion
Futures Spot Prices
- Reformulated Gasoline 286.53 +.21%
- Heating Oil 291.57 +2.44%
- Bloomberg Base Metals Index 206.57 +2.86%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 356.67 USD/Ton -.04%
- China Iron Ore Spot 94.30 USD/Ton -2.38%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,323.77 -.12%
Economy
- ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 4.2% -20 basis points
- Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2626 -1.61%
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 126.81 +.40%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.50 -6.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +4.2 points
- Fed Fund Futures imply 38.0% chance of no change, 62.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 7/30
- US Dollar Index 81.03 +.65%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.78 -.19%
- Yield Curve 198.0 -2.0 basis points
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.47% -1.0 basis point
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.368 Trillion +.29%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.50 -2.12%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 165.0 +1.85%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 33.77 -7.21%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 71.07 -.80%
- Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 203.05 +1.78%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.50 +.57%
- Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 345.31 -1.83%
- Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 221.16 +7.19%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 300.69 -2.24%
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% +5.0 basis points
- TED Spread 21.0 -1.25 basis points
- 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 +1.25 basis points
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.15 +.57%
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.50 -2.33%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 245.05 +2.91%
- CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 83.0 unch.
- M1 Money Supply $2.858 Trillion +1.78%
- Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,025.90 -.20%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 302,000 -7,000
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.9% unch.
- Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.13% unch.
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 349.40 +2.43%
- Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 37.6 +.1 point
- Weekly Retail Sales +3.90% -20 basis points
- Nationwide Gas $3.54/gallon -.05/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 732.0 unch.
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,092.24 +.38%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 +9.09%
- Rail Freight Carloads 267,675 +4.46%
Best Performing Style
Worst Performing Style
Leading Sectors
Lagging Sectors
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)
- PBYI, TRLA, INO, ISRG, STLD, VDSI, SWKS, CMG, PII, CROX, CIT, SKX, HLX, FBRC, HLF, RFMD, EMC, WAT, PETS and CHE
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
- HXL, RMBS, GOV, BXS, CNMD, TUP, UIS, CPHD, XLNX, DFRG and RP
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Lower
- Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 12.59 +6.33%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 142.73 -.25%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 5.89 +1.55%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.47 +2.32%
- ISE Sentiment Index 103.0 +11.96%
- Total Put/Call .92 +1.10%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.14 +.41%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.50 +1.34%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.77 -3.13%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.96 +1.31%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 247.66 +3.36%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 309.69 -.91%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 unch.
- TED Spread 20.75 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.75 -2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1.0 basis point
- Yield Curve 198.0 -4.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $94.30/Metric Tonne +.75%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index -24.50 +1.5 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.6 +.1 point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating -10 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail/tech sector longs
- Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
Bloomberg:
- Ukraine Trades Accusations With Russia of Shelling. Ukraine
and Russia traded accusations of cross-border shelling as tensions
between the ex-Soviet neighbors intensified. “Ukraine’s
border checkpoint at Marynivka in the Donetsk region was attacked from
Russian territory by mortars, Grad missile systems and artillery,” at 6
p.m. and 11 p.m. local time yesterday, damaging infrastructure and
equipment, a Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman, Andriy Lysenko, said
in Kiev today. Rossiya 24 state television said about 40 artillery
shells landed in the Rostov region of southern Russia from across the
border and one woman may have been injured. It showed pictures of
unexploded shells near a border post. While both countries have
swapped such accusations before, the latest allegations come as the
pro-Russian rebel stronghold of Donetsk, less than 100 kilometers (60
miles) from the border, awaits a possible onslaught by Ukrainian
government forces.
- EU Vows Russia Action as Merkel Said to See Sanctions Next Week. The European Union said it’ll work
“swiftly” to hit Russian industries with sanctions as support
grows for the package of trade restrictions outlined this week. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing her colleagues to sign off on the measures by the end of next week and is
prepared to accept curbs on her country’s technology exports to
win support, according to two German government officials, who
asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
- Australia Risks Tension With Ukraine Rebels Sending Armed Police.
Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s plan to deploy armed police
officers to the site of the Malaysian Air crash risks increasing tension
in the Ukrainian
territory held by Russian-backed rebels, according to political
analysts based in Berlin and Brussels.
- Russia Unexpectedly Raises Key Rate Third Time on Ukraine.
Russia’s central bank unexpectedly increased borrowing costs for a
third time this year as the intensifying conflict over Ukraine and the
threat of wider sanctions squeeze the economy and undercut the ruble. The central bank in Moscow increased its one-week auction rate to 8 percent from 7.5 percent, according to a statement on its website today.
- Norway on High Alert Amid Warnings of Attack Next Week. Police
in Norway are on high alert after receiving intelligence that nationals
returning from Syria may be plotting a terrorist attack within days
against the
Scandinavian country. Information obtained by Norway’s security service, PST,
suggests an attack could be imminent, the unit’s chief,
Benedicte Bjoernland, said yesterday. Authorities have
strengthened their presence at Norway’s borders, airports and
train stations, and police in all districts are at a heightened
state of preparedness.
- China Credit Trust Delays Payment on $210 Million Product. China
Credit Trust Co. delayed payments on a 1.3 billion-yuan ($210 million)
high-yield trust product backed by coal-mining assets after the borrower
failed to raise funds to repay investors. The Beijing-based company
will extend the maturity of Credit Equals Gold No. 2, which was
scheduled to expire today, according to a statement distributed to
investors in the product and seen by Bloomberg News. China Credit Trust
aims to sell
assets held by the product within 15 months to repay investors,
the July 24 statement showed.
- Bond ETFs Swelling in Europe as Trading Debt Gets Tougher. Bond
buyers are pouring record
amounts of money into exchange-traded funds in Europe that buy debt as
central bank largess boosts demand and makes investors less willing to
part with their fixed-income assets. Investors deposited more than $16
billion into ETFs that purchase debt from high-yielding corporate notes
to sovereign bonds, almost quadruple the amount in the same period
last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. BlackRock Inc.
(BLK), the world’s biggest provider of ETFs, estimates bond-fund inflows
will climb to about $20 billion by year-end.
- European Stocks Fall as LVMH Leads Luxury Retailers Lower. European stocks fell the most in a week, extending losses in the
final half hour of trading, as companies including LVMH Moet Hennessy
Louis Vuitton SA and Statoil (STL) ASA posted earnings that missed forecasts.
LVMH fell the most since August 2011 after the world’s largest
luxury-goods company also said demand weakened in Asia. Air France-KLM
Group climbed 2.6 percent after reporting second-quarter profit that
beat estimates. Sky Deutschland AG added 1.4 percent after
British Sky Broadcasting Group Plc offered to buy the German
broadcaster. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc rallied the most in more
than four years after saying first-half profit almost doubled. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slid 0.7 percent to 341.95 at the close of trading.
Wall Street Journal:
MarketWatch.com:
CNBC:
ZeroHedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Internet -2.51% 2) Homebuilders -2.03% 3) Semis -1.85%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- INFA, WCG, IDXX, MXIM, WIRE, MGLN, AMZN, SWFT, SOXX, COLM, NTGR, MWIV, BBEP, NCN, GSK, TPX, QRE, E, CBI, AIMC, BAS, SLAB, PCP, NBL, FSL, CB, ENTG, KN, EQT, INVN, V, MOH, FCS, CNC, AAOI, PBYI, GIMO, EPR and P
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) JNK 2) AMZN 3) ALTR 4) SBUX 5) V
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) WCG 2) AON 3) TEX 4) XOM 5) PCH
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Gold & Silver +1.93% 2) Airlines +.48% 3) Steel -.07%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- LOGM, MLNX, RBS, QLIK, ACRX, DECK, BIDU, VRSN, GALT, LPNT, ACTG, AWAY, NR, UHS, THC, SWK, SWI, ALGN and UAL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) ACAS 2) PVA 3) DECK 4) RMD 5) XLU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) XRX 2) T 3) UHS 4) Z 5) AAPL
Charts:
Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- U.S. Says Russia Firing Artillery Into Ukraine. The U.S.
said Russia is firing artillery across its border into Ukraine, the
first time American officials have publicly alleged such direct
participation in fighting on behalf of separatists. “Russia is
firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military
positions,” State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters today
in Washington, offering no
evidence for what she described only as information “from our
intelligence friends.”
- Obama Says Jet Downing Pushing EU Toward Russia Sanctions.
President Barack Obama said he expects the shooting down of the
Malaysian airliners to push European nations toward tougher sanctions
against Russia. Obama said the “intertwined” economies of the European
Union and Russia has been a concern for U.S. allies as they
respond to Russian involvement in the turmoil in Ukraine.
- Asian Stocks Rise After S&P 500 Record; Won, Copper Slip.
Asian stocks climbed, with the regional index at a six-year high and
headed for its 10th advance in 11 weeks. The South Korean won weakened a
second day versus the dollar, while copper pared its weekly gain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent by 9:59 a.m. in Tokyo, set for a weekly climb of 1.2 percent.
- Coal Company Pain Accelerates as Bankruptcy Cases Rise. The coal business, after fueling the Industrial Revolution and
powering U.S. growth for much of the past century, is now beset by a glut of cheap natural gas and tighter regulation.
James River Coal Co. in many ways epitomizes these ills. After filing
for bankruptcy almost four months ago with plans to sell its business,
the Richmond,
Virginia-based company has delayed an auction twice without announcing a
buyer.
Wall Street Journal:
- Islamist Militants Gain in Syria. Islamic State militants launched assaults on Syrian forces across
three provinces on Thursday that killed key government figures,
including two brigadier generals, said activists and residents, in a
rare confrontation between the two sides during the war. In one
assault, the jihadists besieged two military bases outside Hasakah city
in Syria's east, killing a commanding brigadier general, according to
the Syrian Observatory for Human...
- The ObamaCare-IRS Nexus. The supposedly independent agency harassed the administration's political opponents and saved its health-care law.
CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
Reuters:
Telegraph:
Evening Recommendations
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.0 -.75 basis point.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 70.0 unch.
- NASDAQ 100 futures -.24%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Durable Goods Orders for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.% decline in May.
- Durables Ex Transports for June are estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.1% decline in May.
- Cap Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Air for June is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in May.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The German IFO, UK gdp and the (SCHW) business update could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.