Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
- Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 20.84 -11.67%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.88 +.55%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.15 -2.82%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 64.05 -12.22%
- ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +14.29%
- Total Put/Call 1.30 +30.42%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.70 -7.23%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 647.0 -4.58%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.48 -5.36%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.53 -1.77%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.25 -7.15%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 334.53 -12.56%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 355.37 +2.75%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 22.0 -1.25 basis points
- TED Spread 21.25 -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -3.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% unch.
- Yield Curve 154.0 +3.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.05/Metric Tonne -.77%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.20 -.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.50 +.5 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.66 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Higher: On losses in my retail/tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) short
- Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
Style Underperformer:
Sector Underperformers:
- 1) Gaming -1.86% 2) Tobacco +.02% 3) Airlines +.22%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
- FDX, MGM, XL, WYNN, EXPD, TGTX, CALA, SGNT and BEAV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
- 1) LNCO 2) MGM 3) CCL 4) KO 5) UPS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
- 1) ED 2) JOY 3) CVA 4) ABK 5) CIE
Charts:
Style Outperformer:
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Energy +5.02% 2) Oil Service +4.70% 3) Gold & Silver +3.60%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- VOLC, ASPX, DRIV, NAV, PTRY, NPSP, CONN, VC, LINE, MEG, OAS, CNQ, LNCO, WLL, PTRY, BBG, CLR, VNR, ROSE, EVEP, TASR, LGCY, ARP, PAA, SYRG, ATLS, QLGC, WHR, BWP, VC, NAV, AMG, MEMP, KYN, COLM, TMHC, FANG, PNR and WMB
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) MGM 2) NBL 3) CAT 4) FDX 5) EXPD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) SLXP 2) ROSE 3) JEC 4) CP 5) CPLA
Charts:
Night Trading
- Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 +4.0 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 78.25 +3.75 basis points.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.
Morning Preview Links
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (GIS)/.76
- (JOY)/1.14
- (FDX)/2.25
- (MLHR)/.52
- (JBL)/.47
- (ORCL)/.68
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The CPI MoM for November is estimated to fall -.1% versus unch. in October.
- The CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for November is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in October.
- The Current Account Deficit for 3Q is estimated at -$97.5B versus -$98.5B in 2Q.
10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg
consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of
-2,212,500 barrels versus a +1,454,000 barrel gain the prior week.
Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,950,000 barrels versus a
+8,197,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are
estimated to fall by -12,500 barrels versus a +5,577,000 barrel gain the
prior week.
2:00 pm EST
- The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at .25%.
Upcoming Splits
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Yellen speaking, Eurozone inflation data and the weekly MBA mortgage applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian
indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology
shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower
and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 25%
net long heading into the day.
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Slightly Above Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 20.84 +2.06%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 152.91 -.09%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.41 +5.26%
- S&P 500 Implied Correlation 67.10 -1.25%
- ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +81.67%
- Total Put/Call .95 -9.52%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.35 +1.24%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 672.0 +1.04%
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.37 +2.18%
- Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 33.12 +4.58%
- Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 77.25 +3.57%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 417.70 +.08%
- China Blended Corporate Spread Index 345.85 +.20%
- 2-Year Swap Spread 23.25 -.5 basis point
- TED Spread 22.25 -.5 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +2.0 basis points
- Yield Curve 151.0 -2.0 basis points
- China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.58/Metric Tonne -.70%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.40 -3.0 points
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.0 +16.6 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -13.70 +1.5 points
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +2.0 basis points
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan
- DAX Futures: Indicating -75 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my retail/tech sector longs and index hedges
- Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
- Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
