Friday, October 27, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:

CNBC:

Reuters:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,109.5 -2.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 32,417.6 -2.3%
  • NASDAQ 12,643.0 -2.9%
  • Russell 2000 1,634.3 -2.6%
  • NYSE FANG+ 7,134.3 -2.5% 
  • Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 28.8 -1.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 117.6 -1.8%
  • Wilshire 5000 40,847.4 -2.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,584.04 -2.8%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,412.7 -2.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 703.8 -1.15%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,216.19 -.93%
  • NYSE Technology 3,428.60 -2.2%
  • Transports 13,524.7 -6.5%
  • Utilities 812.40 +.55%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 81.2 -2.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 36.63 -.95%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 188.77 +.15%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 104.49 +.51%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 444,643 -.90%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,197 -124
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -37.3 +.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 306,388 -4.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,654,168 -5.7%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +13.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .97 -22.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 78.0 -15.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -12.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.0 -6.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.30 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.11 +15.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.23% -21.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 34.3 +7.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.8 -4.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.3 -1.9%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 11,431.7 -5.3%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  24.8 -41.9
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.633 Trillion +.44%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$3.390 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 29.3 -14.1%
  • AAII % Bears 43.2 +24.9%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 285.10 -1.57%
  • Crude Oil 85.05/bbl. -3.8%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 231.09 -2.7%
  • Natural Gas 3.16 +8.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Heating Oil 303.9 -3.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 134.9 (1,000/metric ton) -5.0%
  • Gold 2,007.60 +1.27%
  • Silver 25.10 -1.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 399.61 +.15%
  • Copper 364.2 +2.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 360.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 119.15 USD/Metric Tonne +5.5%
  • CME Lumber  491.5 +.82%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,590.21 -.26%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 347.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q Forecast +2.26% n/a
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.36 +22.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 21.8 -72.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(246 of 500 reporting) +5.8% +3.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.15 -.13:  Growth Rate +9.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +51.9% +72.8 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.87 +2.56: Growth Rate +59.2% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 26.2 -1.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.7 -10.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.1 +11.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.4 +3.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply .5%(+.4 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 99.5%(-.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  • US Dollar Index 106.6 +.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,667.36 +.01%
  • Bitcoin/USD 33,608.8 +12.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.5 -.44%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -16.75 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.85% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.872 Trillion -.32% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.890 Billion +6.3%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.9 -.26%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 218.48 +5.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 -7.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.35 -2.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.48 -3.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 187.98 -2.4%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 144.17 +5.2%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.81 -.26%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.74 +.41%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 69.09 -.7%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.7% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% -7.0 basis  points: CPI YoY +3.32% -4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43% -4.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 20.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 +.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 +1.5 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 82.1 +.81%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 194.0 -1.3
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346.0 -5.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 101.27 -1.5%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.66 -4.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 239.26 -1.9%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 926.0 +21.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .93 +6.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.6% +.1 percentage point
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,210.4 -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,500 +.6%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.3 +1.0%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 8.04% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 165,200 -1.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.5% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -4.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $132.1M +6.5%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.52/gallon -.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,662.0 -18.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 811.50 -.70%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 -7.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 38.7 -1.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 271,092 +1.4%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,619,848 +21.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -2.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -3.4%
Leading Sectors
  • Education +5.5%
  • Steel +3.8%
  • Shipping +1.5%
  • Foods +.8%
  • Utilities +.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Internet -4.1%
  • Energy -5.3%
  • Oil Service -6.3%
  • Alt Energy -6.3%
  • Road & Rail -6.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (21)
  • DECK, ATGE, CUBI, ARCB, PMT, FIX, SKYW, DXCM, COF, INTC, BJRI, SWK, MMSI, AMZN, JNPR, PFSI, CMG, TBBK, NEM, TXRH and DAR
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (43)
  • DEO, BIPC, MAA, BMO, ABR, GM, SQ, LEA, XPO, AON, VRE, WHR, BIP, PK, HAS, CPT, UDR, HES, ABBV, CVX, TROX, SEDG, GNTX, VRSN, HTLD, AVTR, OLN, LBRDK, SAIA, CHTR, PEB, AX, CPRX, F, EXPO, ENPH, ACMR, SNY, GTLS, PTCT and B
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Concerns, Earnings Outlook Worries, Regional Bank/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.1 +2.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .73% -20.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.2 -3.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.6 -.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.26 -1.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 34.6 +9.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -6.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.16 +2.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.22 +45.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 82.0 +2.0%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.28 +.55%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 346 +4
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 102.1 -.95% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 293.08 -1.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 197.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.2 -.14%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 239.76 +.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 144.08 -.11%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 926.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 93.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.45% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 119.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.43%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.7 +2.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.1 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.4 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(246 of 500 reporting) +5.8% -5.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.15 +.06:  Growth Rate +9.2% unch., P/E 17.3 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +51.9% +16.9 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 269.87 +1.48: Growth Rate +59.2% +.9 percentage point, P/E 26.7 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.30 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.11 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -17.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% n/a
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.63% -7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 72.1%(-8.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 65.1%(-6.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -432 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Pharma -2.9% 2) Alt Energy -2.4% 3) Biotech -2.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AON, SQ, BIPC, WHR, BWA, BAH, PK, TROW, LEA, HUBG, HAS, NXT, CPT, ABBV, HTLD, HES, UDR, CVX, GNTX, SAIA, TROX, OLN, AVTR, SEDG, VRSN, PEB, CHTR, LBRDK, AX, F, CPRX, SAVA, EXPO, ENPH, ACMR, PTCT, GTLS and B
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EDR 2) JBLU 3) OIH 4) IBB 5) F
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ENPH 2) PTCT 3) KNSL 4) GSIT 5) B
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +3.0% 2) Disk Drives +2.3% 3) Shipping +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DECK, ARCB, DXCM, PMT, FIX, COF, INTC, AMZN, SWK, BJRI, CMG, PFSI, JNPR, EDR, LECO and TXRH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EDR 2) NWL 3) WPM 4) WHR 5) F
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DECK 2) DXCM 3) INTC 4) COF 5) CUBI