BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Sunday, May 05, 2024

Monday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:05 PM

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

ABC News President Kim Godwin Is Stepping Down.
Baby Boomer Professors Join Protests, Risking Arrest, Violence.
Israel Wants to Go Into Rafah. It Could Go Badly.
Consumers Fed Up With Food Costs Are Ditching Big Brands.
Arizona Is Booming, but Restless Voters Feel Downbeat About Economy.
How TikTok Is Wiring Gen Z’s Money Brain.
Crime and Progressive Lack of Punishment. The failure to impose penalties on bad behavior, on campus and elsewhere, produces much more of it.
The Rocket Fuel Behind China Shock 2.0: Weak Currency, Deflation.

Barron's:

Had bullish commentary on (THLLY) and (ADBE).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

@elonmusk

@BGatesIsaPsycho

Australians out in force in Brisbane today protesting the new Government Digital ID. It will be coming to a Country near you & needs to be resisted at all costs. (video)
Climate Change Scam. April 2024 was officially 1.35°F colder than April 1981. That’s 43 years of Human Emissions & a clear drop in Temperature. Global Warming now called the Climate Crisis is nothing but a manufactured hoax in order to tax you & exert more State Control over its people. (map)

@libsoftiktok

Chinese people entering our country illegally near the San Diego border are destroying their ID’s when they cross over. They don’t want us to know who they are. We have no clue who’s in our country. Terrifying. (video)

@kylenabecker

Remember That Infamous Photo from the Trump Mar-a-Lago Raid? The FBI Staged It. (pic)

@thestustustudio

This is child abuse. Watch as children in St. Louis are made to protest and chant, "Hey hey, ho ho! Zionism has got to go!" (video)

@StephenM

Biden is flying illegals en masse into swing states before voting begins while, at the same time, his DOJ battles against voter ID and his party (successfully) opposes citizenship verification to vote. If this isn’t a criminal conspiracy to interfere in US elections, nothing is.

@TomFitton

Biden administration abusing cadets at West Point. (pic)

@MarioNawfal

PRES. BOLSONARO: TWO-THIRDS OF BRAZILIANS ARE SCARED TO SPEAK THEIR MINDS.

@JackPosobiec

BREAKING: TANYA TAY REVEALS HOW SOVIET SCHOOLS TAUGHT THAT THE COMMUNISTS WERE THE HEROES IN RUSSIA FIGHTING INEQUALITY AND INJUSTICE. “We were taught the farmers and small business owners deserved what they got”. (video)

@wideawake_media

German MEP Christine Anderson: "Future totalitarian regimes no longer require electrified barbed wire fences. All they need is a phone, a QR code, a digital ID, and then they can do with you whatever they want, and that is scary." (video)
A glimpse into what the future might look like if universal basic income, digital ID and CBDCs become a reality. From 'Beyond The Reset', an animated short film exploring the potential consequences of the WEF's Great Reset. (video)

@WallStreetApes

The Black Community No Longer Asleep To Big Pharma & Government Lies. Apostle Herman L Murray “You can give the whole world a shot but you still got people starving? (video)
America If Meat Seems Different, That’s Because It Probably Is. 3D Printed Meat is getting to the point where it can be indistinguishable from real meat in appearance due to labs using ‘Bioinks’. (video)
An Amazing “Coincidence”. American Cattle Rancher warned the USDA would use this Bird Flu outbreak to start the EID Tags on cattle mandate. The USDA just mandated EID Tags on cattle & bison for the reason of “Disease Traceability”. Another disease that was ALL ABOUT CONTROL (video)

@WallStreetSilv

Queers for Palestine are going to be very upset when they find out. (video)

@HawleyMO

72% of Palestinians believe the genocidal attacks on Israel were a great idea - and Biden wants to bring these people to America.

@VigilantFox

TUCKER CARLSON: “Why have so many Christian leaders just stood by and allowed Joe Biden, for example, to pose as a Christian?” (video)

@mRNAdeaths

16-year-old boy dies five days after receiving the #Pfizer #mRNA vaccine. The boys father was contacted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency offering to pay for his son’s burial if he claimed COVID killed his son. (video)

@toobaffled

A 29-year-old influencer, who was paid by Big Pharma to promote the Covid shots on social media, has slammed the experimental jabs after cardiologists told her they caused her recent heart attack. (pic)

@KobeissiLetter

China's real estate slide continues to accelerate at a faster pace than 2008. Residential real estate volumes dropped to ~75 million per month square meters in late-2023 from ~140 million per month in 2021. That's a massive ~46% decline in volume in just over 2 years. (graph)

@stillgray

UCLA's Royce Hall barely resembles the hallowed halls of a college, and looks like a homeless camp now thanks to the vandalism of the campus anarchists. (video)

@peterschweizer

'Violent' leader of Columbia University's anti-Israel protest is unmasked as son of millionaire ad execs who is married to a model and lives in $3.4M Brooklyn brownstone. (pic)

@amuse

FUN FACT: China now has more oil in their Strategic Petroleum Reserves than the United States. Much of the oil in China's SPR came from our SPR thanks to Biden's decision to empty it.

@bernardwachir14

Where did the flu go in 2020 and 2021? Just a reminder! (graph)

OpenVAERS:

VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,009,553 Reports(+1,917 from prior report) Through March 29th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

Asian indices are +.25% to +.5% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.5 -4.25 basis points.
China Sovereign CDS 63.75 -2.5 basis points.
China Iron Ore Spot 117.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 +.01%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.8 +.08%.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 -.6%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.27%.
S&P 500 futures +.06%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, May 04, 2024

Today's Headlines

Posted by Gary .....at 9:07 PM

@BGatesIsaPsycho

“Today more than 52 Countries across the World are using Weather Modification Programmes”. Wow - just another Conspiracy becoming Conspiracy Fact - but you knew this already. The scale of the Weather Modification is incomprehensible to most however. (video)

@kylenabecker

BREAKING. House Oversight committee votes for citizenship question to be added to the census. The Equal Representation Act passed on straight party line vote 22-20. Every Democratic Congressman *OPPOSED* — because the party stands to lose control of House districts due to the unconstitutional representation of illegal aliens. A House floor vote on the citizenship question will be held next week..

@PierreKory

COVID was a straightforward infection to treat, yet during the pandemic a grotesque mentality emerged—my profession declared it incurable, abandoned patients who had it and attacked those who successfully treated it. This article exposes how that happened..

@libsoftiktok

UNREAL. School District in Illinois (@AptakisicTripp) is offering students extra points if they attend a pride parade. The school social worker is a founder of the city's pride parade and is arranging for students to attend. This is how desperate they are to groom your kids with LGBTQ ideology. (pic)
BREAKING: A female student was reportedly ass*ulted in the women’s bathroom in Arcadia High School in @GreeceCentral by a male student who identifies as a girl.

@LeadingReport

BREAKING: Former CNN anchor and vaccine pusher Chris Cuomo disclosed for the first time that he has been suffering from side effects he attributes to the COVID-19 vaccine.

@PiQSuite

BERKSHIRE SHAREHOLDERS REJECT CLIMATE, DIVERSITY, CHINA PROPOSALS. (video)

@JamesOKeefeIII

Full conversation with CIA Program Manager Amjad Fseisi who said the CIA withheld information from President Trump. (video)

@XVanFleet

Three student movements in China. (pic)

@Sprinterfactory

Experienced activists spent months training participants in pro-Palestinian protests at US universities - The Wall Street Journal.

@wideawake_media

Bill Gates: "For every disease that we don't have vaccines, we will try mRNA". "We just need to mess around. There's a lot of lipid nanoparticles, and some are very self assembling." "We'll be able to build factories worldwide that can make $2 vaccines with even less lead time than we've had to have here during this pandemic." (video)
"They build a computer model that gives them the answer they want, and then tell you that they've got evidence that this is going to happen in the future." Greenpeace co-founder, Dr. Patrick Moore, on the fraudulent climate modelling promoted by climate alarmists as "evidence" of impending climate apocalypse. Sound familiar? (video)
"If you want to control the people, you have to control the CO2." Dutch MEP Rob Roos: The "human-induced climate change" narrative is merely a pretext to install "a new form of communism", with the help of digital ID and CBDCs. "Everything we do in life—breathing, living, travelling, eating—everything we do in life leads to CO2 emissions, and if you can control the CO2, you can control the people." "And if you then have the digital identity, connected to the central bank digital currency... then we have Chinafication." (video)

@OvertonLive

NEW- ‘Patriot Uprising’- Earlier today students holding American flags marched through the University of Chicago’s campus, surrounding the Gaza encampment. (video)

@amuse

Each of these illegals receive auto-parole and get social security numbers so they can work. Fun fact, with an SSN you can register to vote without an ID. It’s illegal but there is no system in place to catch or stop them. (video)

@ClownWorld_

UCLA is in ruins. (video)

@CultureWar2020

Since Biden took Office: (video)

@WallStreetApes

Southern Cut Meats is a proud Kentucky Farmer who raises Beef, Pork, Chicken and Lambs. They have a message for the US Government & USDA over their new mandated EID Tags on Cattle. (video)
Patrick Bet-David Noticing Some Amazing Coincidences With These College Protests, Things Like: Both Election Year Protests started around the same time: The George Floyd BLM riots happened in May 2020 Now in May 2024, College Protests are happening The media is repeating the exact same lines, “If one student dies” David “If one student dies, it's as if they want this”. (video)
American Farmer says the USDA is “Taking away our abilities as farmers, ranchers, homesteaders to take care of our livestock”. “They are taking away all over the counter antibiotics and dewormer. Whether it be oral splash on the pills, they are taking those away from us and move making us bring in veterinary care in order to monitor and administer those. (video)
Please Pay Attention To This American Farmer Sharing Concerns About What’s Coming Due To The New Mandated EID Tag On Cattle. These Tags can ENSURE cattle are poisoned with their mandated vaccines, here’s how: (video)

@WallStreetSilv

In 5 years they will deny this comment was ever published. It will be considered fake and made up ... Never forget what they did ...(pic)
Society is slowly falling apart ... (pic)
WHO chief "scientist" says cows are the main issue in a new bird flu virus spreading. We know exactly what they're planning. (video)
Cricket Powder Will Not Be Called Cricket Powder: It's called Acheta Protein. Why do companies continue to rename ingredients, causing confusion for shoppers?
WEF and UN are waging war against farmers to gain control over the food supply. "When you start to see people like Bill Gates gobble up farmland" "And you read what his foundation says about farming" "They want a particular type of agriculture" "They want large blocks run by the government or a private consortium" "Where they say we're not going to have animal-based proteins" "We're not going to have chicken" "The academic mind always has the answers, but never in the real world". (video)

@VigilantFox

US Senators Drop a Bombshell on the World Health Organization. The tide is turning. In a shocking turn of events, all Republican senators (49), led by Senator Ron Johnson, have formally urged President Joe Biden to withdraw his support in expanding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) pandemic authority..
Michigan Senator Goes Viral After Dire Election Fraud Warning Senator Jim Runstead has taken the internet by storm after issuing a stark warning about a new bill in Michigan that should infuriate every American. Runstead warned that SB 603, being pushed by Democrats, will essentially codify election fraud — for good. (video)

@FinanceLanceLot

Lots of "Climate Change" questions during Berkshire's meeting today.... Even Warren knows it's B.S. (graph)

@bxieus

The People's Forum, linked to CCP and funded by wealthy American Neville Roy Singham, a self-identified socialist reported to be living in Shanghai, is helping to lead Hamas-sympathetic protests across US. It has hailed China’s “new era led by Xi Jinping,”

@MJTruthUltra

By design… Virtually Everything You Find in a Grocery Store is at Best Unhealthy, At Worst Literal Poison. For Example— Seed Oils: “Most people in America now for cooking use Seed Oils, Canola Oil… Canola oil was literally invented as a lubricant for machines. It is a machine lubricant and it is so toxic and horrible for the body. (video)

@KobeissiLetter

Shocking stat of the day: The US has added $100,000 in Federal debt EVERY SECOND over the last year. Since March 1st, the US has been adding a staggering $10 billion in debt PER DAY. That's $417 million per hour, $6.9 million per minute and $115,740 per second.

@CitizenFreePres

Kevin O'Leary has bad news for student protesters. Employers are using AI to identify all of you. (video)

@tedcruz

Democrats lied to the American people when they said Obamacare wouldn’t be used for illegal aliens. Now you’re paying the bill for that lie. This is a disgrace. (video)

@disclosetv

BlackRock CEO: "The social problems that one will have in substituting humans for machines is going to be far easier in those countries that have declining populations." (video)

@charliekirk11

JUST IN—State Department Spokesman: "Palestinians may be eligible for a variety of existing pathways to enter the United States, such as immigrant and non-immigrant visas." While Jordan and Egypt continue to refuse "refugees," America is preparing to roll out the red carpet. (video)

@IGSquawk

Weekend markets update: #DAX 18530 +0.15% #DOW 39805 +0.08% #NASDAQ 18274 +0.15% #FTSE 7979 +0.18% #HANGSENG 16635 +0.23% #GBPUSD 12623 0.00% #EURUSD 10792 -0.01% #USDJPY 15136 +0.00%.

Friday, May 03, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*

Posted by Gary .....at 3:43 PM

S&P 500 5,132.7 +.6%

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

DJIA 38,670.5 +1.2%

NASDAQ 16,159.4 +1.6%

Russell 2000 2,034.0 +1.8%

NYSE FANG+ 10,046.0 +1.8%

Goldman 50 Most Shorted 165.4 +7.9%

Wilshire 5000 51,036.4 +.73%

Russell 1000 Growth 3,339.5 +1.2%

Russell 1000 Value 1,703.1 +.02%

S&P 500 Consumer Staples 810.3 +.4%

Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.5 -1.3%

NYSE Technology 4,682.2 +1.3%

Transports 15,364.5 +1.3%

Utilities 911.6 +3.1%

Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 103.89 -.6%

MSCI Emerging Markets 42.3 +2.8%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 209.4 +.62%

Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.2 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 493,953 +.8%
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -11.5%

Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 114 +344

Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -33.0 +6.7%

CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,836 -8.8%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,765,266 -1.9%

Total Put/Call .93 -6.0%

OEX Put/Call .68 -14.4%

ISE Sentiment 110.0 -10.0 points

NYSE Arms 1.80 +36.7%
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.8 +.3%
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 -10.0 basis points
Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .83 +3.0 basis points

Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -8.2%
DJIA Intraday % Swing .75 +11.9%

CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 18.0 +.7%

G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.45 -2.1%

Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.05 +.4%

Smart Money Flow Index 17,417.6 -.09%
NAAIM Exposure Index 62.0 +2.5

ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.001 Trillion +.4%

ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.299 Million

AAII % Bulls 38.5 +19.9%

AAII % Bears 32.5 -4.1%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

CRB Index 284.75 -4.3%

Crude Oil 78.10/bbl. -6.3%

Reformulated Gasoline 255.1 -6.7%

Natural Gas 2.16 +32.0%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.5 euros/megawatt-hour +4.0%

Heating Oil 244.0 -4.0%
Newcastle Coal 145.5 (1,000/metric ton) +7.1%

Gold 2,299.7 -1.6%
Silver 26.43 -2.8%

S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 464.8 -1.9%

Copper 455.5 -.4%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 382.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

China Iron Ore Spot 117.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.7%

CME Lumber 538.0 +5.0%

UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,505.3 -.37%
US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 302.5 USD/Short Ton +.8%

Economy

Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +3.3% -60.0 basis points

ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.8% +1.2 percentage points

NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.99 +27.6%

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 85.0 +56.5%
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(400 of 500 reporting) +4.3% +.9 percentage point

S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 252.88 +2.21: Growth Rate +14.4% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 20.1 -.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.92% +8.0 basis points
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% -5.2 percentage points
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +9.22: Growth Rate +35.1% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 30.9 +.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -22.4 points

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.2 -1.5 points

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 32.0 -6.3 points

Fed Fund Futures imply 8.4%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 91.6%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 6/12

US Dollar Index 105.04 -.09%

MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,719.11 +.19%

Bitcoin/USD 61,834.8 -2.8%

Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 179.50 -2.6%

Yield Curve(2s/10s) -31.0 -2.25 basis points

10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.50% -17.0 basis points

Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.326 Trillion -.55%
Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $7.013 Billion +2.5%
Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $124.117 Billion -1.1%

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.3 +2.4%

Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.6 +1.0%

Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 -3.0 basis points
UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.5 +1.0%

China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.2 -8.7%

Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 139.0 -8.6%

Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.9 -2.9%

South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.6 -9.7%

China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 +.9%
China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 96.13 +5.4%

Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% unch.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% +1.0 basis point
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.27% -18.0 basis points

Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.5 unch.

3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.25 basis points

N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.4 -3.1%

America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 124.0 +.4%
Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 289.0 +3.0

European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 60.8 -3.6%
Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 186.4 -1.6%

Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 165.1 -6.1%

MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -4.0 basis points
Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 761.0 -9.0 basis points
Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 unch.

M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -.3% unch.

Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,320.6B +.8%

4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,000 -1.6%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.9 -1.7%

Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.44% -12.0 basis points

Weekly Mortgage Applications 192,100 -2.3%

Weekly Retail Sales +5.20% +10.0 basis points
OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
Box Office Weekly Gross $112.9M n/a

Nationwide Gas $3.67/gallon +.01/gallon

Baltic Dry Index 1,774.4 +3.1%
Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,725.5/40 ft Box +.74%

China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,193.6 +.6%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 48.9 -6.4%

Rail Freight Carloads 261,888 +1.7%
TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,642,085 +23.6%

Best Performing Style

Small-Cap Value +2.1%

Worst Performing Style

Mid-Cap Growth -.2%

Leading Sectors

Education +7.0%

Alt Energy +6.5%
Social Media +6.1%

Biotech +6.0%

Digital Health +5.1%

Lagging Sectors

Disk Drives -1.8%

Gold & Silver -3.0%

Oil Service -3.9%

Restaurants -4.1%

Energy -4.4%

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (78)

TWST, TNDM, MODV, OSPN, VIR, ATGE, MTZ, AMGN, TDW, GME, PCTY, TILE, CSTL, ACA, OLED, FOXF, XHR, MELI, LYV, ALCC, FYBR, SPXC, ELVN, SEM, ELVN, AAPL, GTLS, BFAM, GMAB, SIGA, CIVI, ITRI, BJRI, BBAR, W, ANET, NVT, LLYVK, DLR, RH, PAM, YPF, FLNC, MSI, KROS, RGA, FTAI, CVNA, BLDR, EDU, ACEL, SLN, ASPN, KBH, BEP, FSLR, CPT, TCOM, NTES, CRS, GGAL, BMA, TXRH, APTV, BOWL, XPO, CNXC, GVA, CNXC, CVLT, ASAI, BKNG, WK, AGRO and TTMI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (26)