Friday, April 01, 2005

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Confidence among Japan's large manufactures fell in March to its lowest in a year, the central bank's Tankan survey showed, reflecting concern a recovery in Asia's largest economy won't last.

Wall Street Journal:
- A US Defense Department panel approved full production of Lockheed Martin's F/A-22 stealth fighter airplane.
- Dell Inc. won't sell computers with the stripped-down version of Microsoft's Windows program.
- A Berkshire Hathaway Inc. insurance unit has undone a transaction handled by Ajit Jain, an associate of CEO Warren Buffett, after Jain and the unit were sued by a liquidator of the firm involved, citing people familiar with the situation.
- European telecom companies are investing some of their yearly generated $71.3 billion in cash to expand and strike deals.

CNN:
- Former US National Security Adviser during the Clinton administration, Sandy Berger, has agreed to plead guilty tomorrow in federal court for removing documents from the National Archive.

Financial Times:
- The European Union should forge ahead with plans to lift a 15-year-old arms embargo on China, citing German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

Economic Times:
- India may allow overseas investors to own 100% of biotechnology companies in the country.

Shanghai Securities News:
- The time is right for China to adjust its exchange rate policy and a move may happen at any time.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAL.
- Reiterated Underperform on SMP and SLG.

Business Week:
- Acacia Research's(ACTG) Acacia Technology business may see revenue rise to $100 million a year if it prevails in patent-infringement lawsuits.
- The shares of wedding services Web site operator The Knot Inc.(KNOT) may rise on expectations of higher revenue and earnings because of more vendor advertisements and lower costs.
- Shares of MetLife Inc.(MET), the biggest US life insurer, are worth buying because the stock trades below others in the same industry group.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.03%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.17%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BBY/1.55
DLP/.47
RDA/.04

Splits
COG 3-for-2
CBI 2-for-1
SM 2-for-1

Economic Releases
8:30 EST:
- The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated to fall to 5.3% versus 5.4% in February.
- Average Hourly Earnings for March are estimated to rise .2% versus 0.0% in February.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 213K versus 262K in February.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 8K versus 20K in February.

9:45 EST:
- Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for March is estimated to fall to 92.7 versus a prior estimate of 92.9.

10:00 EST:
- Construction Spending for February is estimated to rise .6% versus a .7% increase in January.
- ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus a reading of 55.3 in February.
- ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 66.0 versus a reading of 65.5 in February.

Afternoon:
- Total Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to rise to 16.7M versus 16.3M in February.
- Domestic Vehicle Sales for March are estimated to rise to 13.2M versus 13.0M in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, led by commodity-related shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed in the morning and rise later in the day on lower long-term interest rates. However, if the economic data is stronger than I expect, rates will rise which may send stocks lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into tomorrow.

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