Thursday, April 07, 2005

Mid-day Scoreboard

Indices
S&P 500 1,186.22 +.18%
DJIA 10,516.32 +.29%
NASDAQ 2,009.69 +.53%
Russell 2000 617.68 +.24%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,694.81 +.20%
S&P Barra Growth 572.26 +.25%
S&P Barra Value 609.75 +.14%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.27 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 748.61 +.38%
Morgan Stanley Technology 456.30 +.57%
Transports 3,699.19 -.38%
Utilities 363.98 +.46%
Put/Call .78 -20.41%
NYSE Arms .99 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 12.60 -4.18%
ISE Sentiment 144.00 -2.70%
US Dollar 84.77 +.12%
CRB 305.89 -.71%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.25 -2.86%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.25 -5.83%
Natural Gas 7.36 -2.62%
Heating Oil 152.50 -3.95%
Gold 428.10 -.26%
Base Metals 129.69 +.47%
Copper 150.40 -.30%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.47% +1.10%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +1.87%
Broadcasting +1.24%
Semis +1.24%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.94%
Energy -1.04%
Oil Service -1.53%

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks are higher mid-day on optimism over falling energy prices. The Portfolio is unchanged as gains in my Software and Internet longs are offsetting losses in my Retail longs and Base Metal shorts. I exited a few trading shorts and added a couple of longs this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio’s market exposure at 25% net long. One of my new longs is OSTK and I am using a $43 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are higher and volume is light. Consumer stocks and Tech are outperforming, while Energy-related shares are underperforming and measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Today’s overall market action is modestly positive, considering the decline in energy prices, the market’s oversold state and the rise in long-term interest rates. Wal-Mart’s lowered earnings outlook may actually prove to be a positive as consumers finally begin to retrench a bit, thus resulting in lower long-term interest rates. I expect US stocks to rise modestly into the close on optimism over falling energy prices and stabilizing long-term rates.

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