Thursday, April 07, 2005

Thursday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,191.14 +.60%
DJIA 10,546.32 +.58%
NASDAQ 2,018.79 +.98%
Russell 2000 619.76 +.58%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,739.03 +.58%
S&P Barra Growth 574.94 +.72%
S&P Barra Value 611.78 +.47%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.47 +.98%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 751.67 +.80%
Morgan Stanley Technology 458.34 +1.02%
Transports 3,719.00 +.14%
Utilities 365.40 +.84%
Put/Call .69 -29.59%
NYSE Arms .76 -32.24%
Volatility(VIX) -6.24%
ISE Sentiment 135.00 -8.78%
US Dollar 84.87 +.22%
CRB 306.28 -.58%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 53.92 -.35%
Unleaded Gasoline 156.34 -.29%
Natural Gas 7.33 -.50%
Heating Oil 152.20 -.41%
Gold 427.70 -.16%
Base Metals 129.69 +.47%
Copper 149.95 -.46%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.48% +1.28%

Leading Sectors
Gaming +2.44%
Semis +1.97%
Airlines +1.85%

Lagging Sectors
Restaurants -.58%
Energy -.58%
Oil Service -1.16%

After-hours Movers
STZ +4.6% after beating 4Q estimates and reiterating 1Q guidance.
ELX +5.3% after boosting 3Q forecast.
BCSI -15.4% after saying the SEC is conducting a formal investigation of the company.
USFC -4.4% after lowering 1Q estimates substantially.
ARBA -8.1% after lowering 2Q estimates.
BORL -9.6% after lowering 1Q and 2Q forecasts.
LAVA -17.1% after cutting 4Q and 06 forecasts substantially.

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on PFE and Underperform on DRI.

Business Week:
- Tootsie Roll Industries(TR) might be valued at $35-$37 a share in a possible buyout, citing LJR Great Lakes Review analyst Elliott Schlang.
- Doral Financial Corp., Puerto Rico’s largest mortgage lender, may see its shares rise to $49 in a year as Puerto Rico’s housing shortage will keep mortgage demand strong.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Growth in US consumer installment credit slowed in February on waning demand for auto and other personal loans.
- Moody’s Investors Service said it put Pfizer’s Aaa long-term debt ratings on review for possible downgrade after today’s suspension of the Bextra painkiller.
- Marshall Carter, former chief executive officer of State Street, succeeded John Reed as chairman of the NYSE, 18 months after the world’s biggest stock market ousted Richard Grasso.
- Crude oil in NY fell for a fifth day amid speculation rising US refinery output will boost gasoline supplies for the peak summer motoring season.
- AmerisourceBergen Corp. said one of its units received a subpoena April 6 from Democratic NY Attorney General Spitzer’s office.

Financial Times:
- Morgan Stanley CEO Purcell said the firm’s board is “moving on” after resisting pressure from retired executives for his ouster.
- US imports from China rose 37% in January and February, while exports to the Asian country fell 10%.

Reuters:
- Morgan Stanley CEO Purcell, under pressure from retired executives calling for his ouster, denied speculation the firm may be bought by HSBC Holdings Plc.

Business Week:
- IBM CEO Palmisano projects the company will generate as much as $50 billion in revenue in 10 years from business consulting and outsourcing.

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished higher today on optimism over falling energy prices. The Portfolio finished higher on gains in my Internet, Computer and Gaming longs. I added a few new longs in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. One of my new longs is QCOM and I am using a stop-loss of $34.75 on this position. The tone of the market strengthened into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished near its daily highs, almost every sector rose and volume was light. Energy-related stocks underperformed into the afternoon, while Tech and Gaming shares outperformed and measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action was positive, considering the rise in long-term interest rates, negative news from PFE/WMT/SBUX and Fed comments. I am not ruling out the possibility that stocks have seen there lows for the year. However, I would have liked to see heavier volume and a better advance/decline line. I expect stocks will test recent lows over the coming weeks on growth jitters.

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