Monday, April 04, 2005

Monday Close

Indices
S&P 500 1,176.12 +.27%
DJIA 10,421.14 +.16%
NASDAQ 1,991.07 +.32%
Russell 2000 613.76 +.36%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,597.85 +.24%
S&P Barra Growth 567.11 +.36%
S&P Barra Value 604.67 +.18%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 575.45 +.59%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 742.44 +.09%
Morgan Stanley Technology 454.17 +.43%
Transports 3,707.79 +.57%
Utilities 361.18 +.24%
Put/Call .87 -16.35%
NYSE Arms 1.05 -45.49%
Volatility(VIX) 14.11 +.14%
ISE Sentiment 166.00 +50.91%
US Dollar 84.80 +.02%
CRB 310.10 -.57%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 56.67 -.60%
Unleaded Gasoline 171.25 -.53%
Natural Gas 7.56 -.38%
Heating Oil 163.85 -.23%
Gold 426.80 +.19%
Base Metals 127.92 -.01%
Copper 149.10 -.27%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.45% +.14%

Leading Sectors
Insurance +2.02%
Airlines +1.90%
Telecom +1.35%

Lagging Sectors
Energy -.81%
Iron/Steel -.92%
Papers -2.80%

After-hours Movers
MSSN +4.5% after Moody's placed its ratings under review following the announcement that HAWK is acquiring it. HAWK +5.6%.
ATRS -4.1% after cutting 1Q forecast.
PLCM -5.6% after cutting 1Q outlook.
NAVR -10.2% after saying that is previously announced offering of senior notes has been terminated due to the recent weakness of the bond market.
RSAS -20.0% after cutting 1Q forecast.
MENT -21.25% after cutting 1Q outlook and saying book-to-bill was "extremely weak."

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on AET, UTX, WAG and WLP.
- Reiterated Underperform on CVH.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft offered to make it easier for rivals to get its proprietary information to allay regulatory concerns the company isn't doing enough to comply with a European antitrust order.
- Shares of Morgan Stanley rose as much as 5.7% after Dow Jones Newswires reported that the company's board backed the sale of the Discover credit card unit.
- Verizon said it will abandon an effort to purchase MCI Inc. if MCI says a competing offer from Qwest Communications is superior.
- The US Commerce Dept. launched an investigation of imports from China of trousers, knit shirts and underwear, following a first-quarter surge in those imports.
- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett's re-election to Coca-Cola's board should be opposed by the company's shareholders because his business ties pose a conflict, Institutional Shareholder Services, the biggest adviser to funds on proxy votes, said today.
- Major League Baseball suspended 38 minor-league players who failed tests for steroids, a day after announcing the first penalty against a major-leaguer involving the muscle-building drugs.
- President Bush pledged US support for Ukraine's quest to enter the WTO and join the North Atlantic defense alliance to help nurture democracy in Eastern Europe.
- Crude oil futures fell a second day after the European Union cut its growth forecast and OPEC began talks on another output increase to swell stockpiles and lower prices.
- Shares of AIG rose 4.6% after New York AG Spitzer said a civil resolution of his accounting probe was "achievable."

Berliner Zeitung:
- Germany's BDI industry group, which represents 107,000 companies including DaimlerChrysler AG and Siemens AG, cut its 2005 growth forecast for the German economy to about 1%.

BOTTOM LINE: US stocks rose modestly today as energy prices fell from early morning highs and AIG rebounded. The Portfolio finished unchanged as gains in my Base Metal shorts offset losses in my Software longs. I took profits in a few shorts from various sectors in the afternoon and added a few new Tech longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. One of my new longs is AAPL and I am using a $40 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market strengthened into the afternoon as the advance/decline improved substantially, almost every sector advanced and volume was light. Consumer-oriented stocks and Tech outperformed, while Commodity-related stocks underperformed and measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower. Overall, today’s market action was modestly positive. I would like to see the advance/decline line continue to improve before adding any additional trading longs.

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