Monday, December 05, 2005

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Rising Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,262.31 -.23%
DJIA 10,833.49 -.41%
NASDAQ 2,257.28 -.71%
Russell 2000 685.58 -.72%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,627.11 -.31%
S&P Barra Growth 604.01 -.33%
S&P Barra Value 653.57 -.17%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 592.66 -.37%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 779.03 -.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 532.00 -.94%
Transports 4,088.52 -1.22%
Utilities 403.66 +.16%
Put/Call .85 unch.
NYSE Arms .98 -20.45%
Volatility(VIX) 11.59 +5.27%
ISE Sentiment 203.00 -12.50%
US Dollar 91.42 -.55%
CRB 326.45 +.96%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.15 +1.40%
Unleaded Gasoline 159.70 -.86%
Natural Gas 13.92 -.08%
Heating Oil 179.75 +1.44%
Gold 512.70 +1.12%
Base Metals 151.59%
Copper 200.70 +1.31%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.56% +1.18%

Leading Sectors
Steel +1.64%
Energy +.69%
I-Banks +.28%

Lagging Sectors
Airlines -1.48%
Computer Services -1.48%
Semis -1.59%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Airline longs and Medical Information Systems longs. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. Overall, today’s market action is negative considering more positive economic data and lack of follow-through from late last week. According to the Hedge Fund Center, the number of hedge funds trading commodity-related securities has risen 125% in just the past year. As well, $15 billion has flowed into investment funds that track commodity indices over the past 5 months, according to Barclays Capital. It is interesting to note that the CRB Index has barely risen over this time frame, notwithstanding the historical disruptions related to the hurricanes. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, more optimism and a reversal lower in energy prices from morning highs.

No comments: