Tuesday, December 06, 2005

Stocks Sharply Higher Mid-day as Largest Component of Inflation Declines for 2nd Straight Quarter

Indices
S&P 500 1,271.63 +.76%
DJIA 10,914.57 +.74%
NASDAQ 2,276.27 +.83%
Russell 2000 692.68 +.89%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,722.30 +.74%
S&P Barra Growth 608.77 +.78%
S&P Barra Value 658.84 +.81%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 596.04 +.57%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 788.71 +1.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 538.51 +1.36%
Transports 4,163.53 +1.88%
Utilities 405.00 +.19%
Put/Call .84 -1.18%
NYSE Arms .56 -39.91%
Volatility(VIX) 10.99 -5.26%
ISE Sentiment 201.00 +5.79%
US Dollar 91.47 unch.
CRB 325.09 -.15%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 60.35 +.73%
Unleaded Gasoline 158.55 -.27%
Natural Gas 13.73 +.51%
Heating Oil 177.90 -.59%
Gold 513.50 +.18%
Base Metals 151.11 -.32%
Copper 198.90 -.92%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.48% -1.77%

Leading Sectors
Airlines +2.93%
Semis +2.34%
Retail +1.53%

Lagging Sectors
Foods -.05%
Drugs -.16%
Oil Tankers -.18%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is substantially higher mid-day on gains in my Internet longs, Computer longs, Semi longs, Retail longs and Medical longs. I have not traded this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, almost every sector is higher and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are lower. Overall, today’s market action is positive considering investors are rewarding positive news notwithstanding recent gains. The Johnson Redbook same-store sales index rose 3.3% year-over-year last week vs. a 3.9% rise the prior week. This week's gain is up from a 1.5% increase in late April, and it's the 31st week in a row that the index has risen 3% or more. This measure has been much more accurate than other gauges of retail activity I follow. The Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) has returned 12.0% since around mid-October. I continue to believe retailers will outperform through year-end. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close on short-covering, more optimism and falling long-term rates.

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