Friday, January 27, 2006

Stocks Higher Heading into Final Hour on Decline in Long-term Rates and Short-covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Semi longs, Medical longs, Software longs and Biotech longs. I added to my AAPL long and VLO short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is higher, sector performance is mostly positive and volume is heavy. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. As far as I can tell George Soros has been bearish on the global economy, specifically the U.S., for some time. However, according to Gurufocus.com, his two largest sector weightings at the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year were Consumer Services at 20.3% and Technology at 17.3%. Moreover, a long QQQQ position is his third largest individual long position. This doesn't seem to correspond with his very bearish statements. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, “catch-up buying” and lower long-term rates.

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