Leading Indicators Rise Slightly

- Leading Indicators for December rose .1% versus estimates of a .2% increase and an upwardly revised .9% gain in November.

BOTTOM LINE: An index of US leading indicators released today pointed to a slower pace of economic growth in the next three to six months. Rising consumer sentiment and money supply contributed the most to the index. The risks of a significant economic slowdown or unacceptable inflation are “quite small” at this point, the Fed’s Poole said this morning. According to a poll released today by the National Association of Business Economics, executives expect US economic growth to rise between 3-4% during the first half of this year. I continue to believe US growth is slowing to around long-term average levels of 3%, which should allow the Fed to stop raising rates this quarter and be a positive for stocks.