Sunday, January 29, 2006

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart(WMT) said January same-store sales rose about 4.7%, the biggest January gain in two years.
- Former President Clinton called on Hamas to renounce violence as it prepares to form a government after winning Palestinian parliamentary elections.
- President Bush called on Congress to hold a confirmation vote on US Supreme Court nominee Samuel A. Alito Jr., and lashed out at Democrats for their handling of the judge’s nomination.
- The NFL said it will show eight regular-season games on its cable-tv channel on Thursday and Saturday nights starting next season.
- Morgan Stanley’s(MWD) international chairman Jonathan Chenevix-Trench downplayed the recent departure of four senior investment bankers, saying the firm is in “great shape.”
- Israel said it will cut off contact with the Palestinian Authority unless Hamas, which won last week’s legislative elections, meets four conditions, including acceptance of prior Israeli-Palestinian peace agreements.
- Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said OPEC shouldn’t cut production when the group meets in two days.
- OPEC should leave oil production unchanged, Algeria’s energy minister said.
- Japan’s industrial production rose for a fifth month in December, the longest expansion since 1999, as robust overseas and domestic demand encourages companies to increase output of electronics and motor vehicles.
- US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will press US allies today in London to deprive the incoming Hamas-led Palestinian government of financial support unless it abandons terrorism and accepts the existence of Israel.
- Arcelor SA, the world’s second-largest steelmaker, said its board unanimously rejected a $22.5 billion hostile takeover bid by rival Mittal Steel Co., the largest producer of the metal.

Wall Street Journal:
- Citigroup Inc.(C) may bid for General Motors’(GM) finance unit, GMAC.

Washington Post:
- China’s Communist Party introduced economic, educational and medical reform to “help” farmers since their protests have become increasingly violent.
- Some Democrats are using blogs and mass e-mails to denounce members of their own political party for trying to appeal to a broad spectrum of US voters.
- Target Corp.(TGT) operates one of the most advanced crime labs in the US at its headquarters in Minneapolis as part of its efforts to aid local and national law-enforcement agencies.
- The White House may be reluctant to pay for 19 planned NASA shuttle flights and may delay deploying a new generation of manned spacecraft until 2014.

LA Times:
- Sales of new home rose 4.4% in 2005, the highest percentage increase since market researcher DataQuick Information Systems began taking data in 1988.

Seattle Times:
- Microsoft(MSFT) is acquiring Seadragon Software, a Seattle-based company developing technologies that could be used across several of the software giant’s businesses.

Financial Times:
- Microsoft(MSFT) may face new antitrust action from the European Commission which could force it to disclose more information about its Windows operating program.
- The SEC plans to randomly inspect hedge fund managers of businesses it regards as high risk, citing Gene Gohlke, associate director of the SEC’s compliance office.

Independent on Sunday:
- John Lasseter, the creative chief of Pixar Animation Studios(PIXR) told Walt Disney(DIS) that production on “Toy Story 3” will be scrapped.

AFP:
- Ex-Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein walked out of his trial in Baghdad after his half-brother was thrown out by the judge.
- Kuwaiti Oil Minister al-Sabah urged OPEC to maintain oil supplies close to a 25-year high when it meets Jan. 31.

Focus:
- German authorities uncovered clues that Iran is expanding an arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, increasing concern that the country may have a secret nuclear-weapons program.

Nihon Keizai:
- Hitachi Ltd. may invest $852 million to build a new flat-screen plasma TV panel factory and expand capacity to keep up with rivals.

El Mundo:
- Mexico and the US may be close to an agreement on immigration, Mexican President Vicente Fox said.

Tehran Times:
- Iran will begin drilling for oil and gas in the Caspian Sea by June, citing an Iranian oil official.
- Iran will export 2.6 million barrels of crude oil a day in 2006, citing figures in the latest government budget plan.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on (MHP).
- Had negative comments on (PCL) and (AMLN).

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on (PFE).

Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.09%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
(AFL)/.63
(CHKP)/.35
(CMI)/3.11
(EK)/.39
(XOM)/1.44
(GILD)/.53
(KFT)/.53
(MAT)/.48
(PCL)/.34
(SGP)/.08
(SEE)/.74
(SII)/.43
(SYY)/.35
(TSN)/.16
(ZMH)/.83

Upcoming Splits
- (MRBK) 3-for-2
- (CTHR) 5-for-4

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- Personal Income for December is estimated to rise .4% versus a .3% increase in November.
- Personal Spending for December is estimated to rise .7% versus a .3% increase in November.
- PCE Core(M-o-M) for December is estimated to rise .2% versus a .1% gain in November.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, led by financial, material and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rise into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

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