Thursday, January 05, 2006

Stocks Mixed in Final Hour as Natural Gas Continues to Plunge

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour of trading on gains in my Internet longs, Semi longs, Software longs, Biotech longs energy-related shorts. I added NBR short and added to a couple of existing longs today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is slightly positive as the advance/decline line is modestly higher, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly higher. The AAII % Bulls fell to 29.35% this week from 37.30% the prior week. This reading is approaching depressed levels and has declined 29.25 percentage points in eight weeks. The AAII % Bears rose to 40.22% from 36.51% the prior week. This reading is now approaching elevated levels and has increased 24.21 percentage points in six weeks. I expect bullish sentiment to rise next week. As I said a few weeks ago, the fact that bullishness has declined to this extent with the market near a four-year high bodes very well for another meaningful push higher during this quarter. I expect US stocks to trade mixed from current levels into the close as weakness in the energy sector and apprehension ahead of the jobs report offsets lower energy prices and short-covering.

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