Leading Indicators Forecast Strong US Economic Growth

- Leading Indicators for January rose 1.1% versus estimates of a .6% increase and a .3% rise in December.

BOTTOM LINE: An index of US leading indicators rose for a fourth straight month as the labor market improved further and manufacturing strengthened, pointing to faster economic growth, Bloomberg reported. The fall in jobless claims contributed the most to the increase in the index. Morgan Stanley raised its estimate for 1Q US growth to 5.9% from a prior estimate of 5.5% growth. I expect very strong US economic growth in the first quarter of around 4.5-5.0%. However, growth should decelerate back to average levels of around 3.0% for the remainder of the year.