Sunday, March 04, 2007

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Fed Chairman Bernanke said late Friday evening that the tie between slack in the economy and prices has eased and that “there is still some overstatement of inflation.” He also said the prime mortgage market still seems “strong” and that there is no spillover of sub-prime to prime problems. Bernanke said the Fed is monitoring the mortgage market carefully.
- Crude oil is falling for the second day in NY on concerns that global economic growth will slow and investment funds are reducing risk in commodities.
- Copper futures in Shanghai fell for a second day amid concern that demand in China, the world’s biggest user of the metal, will slow if the government takes further steps to slow economic growth.
- President Bush asked American to contribute to the Red Cross and other relief agencies to aid tornado-stricken southern states during a visit to Alabama and Georgia to view storm damage.
- Hundreds of Russian policeman, many in riot gear, clashed with demonstrators in St. Petersburg led by former chess champion Garry Kasparov who rallied against what they say is a crackdown on democracy by President Vladimir Putin.
- The SEC froze more than $5.3 million in profits from suspected insider trading of TXU Corp.(TXU) stock options that were bought days before a $45 billion takeover of the company.
- Asian currencies posted a weekly loss, led by the Philippines peso and Indonesia’s rupiah, on concern a slump in stock prices will prompt investors to withdraw funds from the region.
- Moody’s Investors Service gave its highest bond ratings to certain debt of JPMorgan Chase(JPM), State Street Bank & Trust(STT) and Bank of New York(BK).
- Treasury benchmark 10-year notes posted their biggest weekly gains in five months as global investors sought the safety of US government debt amid declines in stocks.
- Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, found a light grade of crude oil off the coast of Espirito Santo state, raising expectations there are large new oil reserves below existing offshore deposits. The new well, shows signs of producing about 10,000 barrels a day, may be part of a field with reserves of as much as 570 million barrels. It may also extend the size of similar finds beneath a salt layer that lays below existing oil fields in the nearby Campos Basin, Petrobras said.
- Technology analyst Rick Shurlund, who covered software companies such as Microsoft Corp.(MSFT) for more than two decades at Goldman Sachs Group(GS), will join the Galleon Group hedge fund next month.
- China will boost its 2007 defense budget 17.8% to $45 billion, the most in five years, as an expanding economy gives the world’s largest regular army the means to upgrade its equipment.
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said foreign holdings of US government debt pose no threat to the economy, countering comments made by leading Democrats including Senator Hillary Clinton.
- OPEC will probably keep its production quotas unchanged when ministers meet March 15, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said. “Prices are expected to stabilize between $50 and $60” a barrel, he said.
- China’s investment in factories and plants must support the nation’s goals of reducing energy demand, the head of the country’s top economic planning body said. “We will follow an energy saving evaluation and examination system for fixed-asset investment projects and make energy efficiency a mandatory criterion in project examination, approval and development,” Ma Kai, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said.
- Cnooc Ltd., China’s largest offshore oil producer, will increase its oil and gas production by at least 18% next year, Chairman Fu Chengyu said. China’s 2007 output of oil products will be enough to cover demand.

Marketwatch.com:
- One day’s sell-off does not a bear market make. That is the message from the top-performing market-timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

NY Times:
- An Environmental Protection Agency study, titled United States Climate Action Report, predicts emissions will decelerate to 11% from 2002-2012, compared with 11.6% the prior decade.
- Cisco Systems(CSCO) is buying the technology assets of social-networking Web site Tribe.net. The purchase of Tribe.net, along with its recent acquisition of social-network design firm Five Across, will give Cisco the technology to create video services for corporate clients.
- Soaring crop prices, strong export markets and growing demand for biofuels are adding up to good times for many American farmers. So it’s not surprising that farmland, particularly in the upper Midwest, has begun to reflect that good fortune with rapidly rising prices.

Business Week:
- The outlook for US stocks is surprisingly upbeat despite recent volatility..

San Jose Mercury News:
- The Silicon Valley job market is sizzling. Employers in California’s Silicon Valley hired 2.9% more workers in January compared with a year earlier. It was the fastest rate of jobs growth since a 3.8% rise in the year to March 2001, near the end of the dot-com bubble.

Detroit News:
- Blackstone Group LP, a private equity company, may be the leading contender to buy the US unit of Germany’s DaimlerChrysler AG(DCX).

AP:
- NAACP President Bruce Gordon is quitting as chief of the civil rights organization 19 months after taking over, citing strained relations with the board.
- Diebold Inc.(DBD), a US maker of safes and automatic teller machines, may sell its electronic voting machine unit, citing analysts.

InfoWorld:
- Despite its CEO’s claims that Microsoft eventually will trump Google(GOOG) to be number one in online search revenue, the company’s online business is “massively underperforming” against the competition, according to a leading financial analyst.

Financial Times:
- Alcatel-Lucent(ALU), the world’s biggest maker of telecommunications equipment, will “resume growth as we move through the year,” citing and interview with CEO Patricia Russo.
- Four banks and a real estate data association are prepared to open the first US commercial property derivatives market as early as this week.
- The issue of Europe is the “big forgotten issue” of the French presidential campaign at a time when the country should reassess its “arrogant” and isolated position, citing an interview with European Union Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot. Both French presidential candidates use the EU as a scapegoat for France’s problems, Barrot said.

London-based Times:
- Google Inc.(GOOG) posted an 83% gain in revenue from UK advertising last year. Google is the UK’s second-biggest advertising earner behind ITV Plc.

Globe and Mail:
- “It’s even worse than a casino,” complained Li Daqing, one of the investors at this trading hall, who has been investing in the Chinese market since 1996. “At least a casino has some rules. The Chinese stock market has no rules. I hate this market. It’s controlled by the government. It can’t be a fair game if the referee is also one of the players.”

WirtschaftsWoche:
- SAP AG(SAP) has attracted interest from US buyout firm Silver Lake Partners and Hewlett-Packard(HPQ).

China Daily:
- China’s Premier Wen Jiabao today will announce measures to slow economic growth to 8% this year. Wen will propose stronger measures to control fixed-asset investment and credit growth. The Chinese government’s primary mission this year will be to restrain economic growth, and it may focus on stabilizing prices and reducing unemployment.

Nikkei:
- Advantest Corp.(ATE) expects a 23% increase in operating profit next fiscal year, as the release of Microsoft’s Windows Vista operating system drives sales of its chip testers.
- Kyocera Corp., the world’s third-largest maker of solar cells, plans to spend as much as $428 million to double its output of solar cells by March 2011.

China Securities Journal:
- China must restrain energy consumption to prevent a rebound in fixed-asset investment, citing Zhang Zhuoyuan, an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Tighter energy use and emission standards should be imposed to restrict investment growth in low-efficiency industries. China’s energy consumption growth has already declined to 9.3% last year from 15.3% in 2003.

Shanghai Securities News:
- China’s stock market lacks hedging tools and the index is distorted by heavily weighted financial stocks, citing Ba Shusong, a senior State Council researcher. The combination of lack of stock market diversity and insufficient hedging tools is likely to amplify market fluctuations, and the limited number of investment channels means too much money is concentrated in stocks, Ba said.

Iran:
- Iran plans to issue a new banknote featuring a nuclear motif, citing the government press office.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Made positive comments on (WFMI), (WFR), (FEIC), (VRTX), (GILD), (GOOG) and (AAP).
- Made negative comments on (AVB).

Citigroup:
- Retailers with heavy seasonal exposure and inventory leftover from winter's mild start were probably the big winners in February. We favor (AAP), (AZO), (ODP) and (TSCO) as our best new money ideas.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -2.25% to -1.5% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.40%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.48%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Conference Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (ADCT)/.05
- (FNSR)/.03
- (MIR)/.18

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
- ISM Non-Manufacturing for February is estimated to fall to 57.0 versus a reading of 59.0 in January.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are sharply lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to trim losses into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

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