- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for February was 97K versus estimates of 95K and an upwardly revised 146K in January.
- The Unemployment Rate for February fell to 4.5% versus estimates of 4.6% and 4.6% in January.
- Average Hourly Earnings for February rose 4.1% versus estimates of a 3.9% gain and an upwardly revised 4.1% increase in January.
- Wholesale Inventories for January rose .7% versus estimates of a .1% gain and a -.5% decline in February.
BOTTOM LINE: The US trade deficit shrank in January as imports declined and demand for US products rose, Bloomberg reported. US exports rose 1.1% to a record. A smaller deficit this year would result in trade contributing to US growth for the first time in more than 10 years. I expect the trade deficit to only improve slightly this year.
The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell last month and employers added 97,000 jobs, easing concern economic slowdown concerns, Bloomberg reported. The unemployment rate fell slightly and remains at historically low levels. Upward revisions for the prior two months showed employers added 55,000 more jobs than previously estimated. Builders cut 62,000 jobs after adding 28,000 the prior month, mainly due to bad weather. I continue to believe the labor market will remain healthy over the intermediate-term as the financial, technology and healthcare sectors add jobs, more than offsetting construction-related weakness.
Inventories at US wholesalers rose more than forecast in January, Bloomberg reported. Sales fell .9% after rising 1.6% the prior month. At the current sales pace, the amount of goods on hand is still a low 1.19 months worth. Petroleum sales fell 11.1% versus a 5.9% increase the prior month. I continue to believe inventory rebuilding will begin adding to overall economic growth next quarter.
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