Economy Creates More Jobs Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Still Historically Low, Earnings Substantially Outpacing Inflation

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for June was 132K versus estimates of 125K and an upwardly revised 190K in May.

- The Unemployment Rate for June came in at 4.5% versus estimates of 4.5% and 4.5% in May.

- Average Hourly Earnings for June rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% gain and an upwardly revised .4% gain in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Employers in the US added 132,000 workers to payrolls last month, wages grew and the unemployment rate held near a six-year low, signaling the job market will continue to sustain American consumers, Bloomberg reported. Payrolls at builders rose 12,000 versus a 2,000 job decline the prior month. The economy has created about 2 million jobs over the last year. The Monster Employment Index is just slightly off its all-time record set in May. The 50-week moving average of jobless claims has been lower during only two other periods since the 70s. The unemployment rate is a historically low 4.5%, down from 5.1% in September 2005, notwithstanding fewer real-estate related jobs and significant auto production cutbacks during that period. The unemployment rate’s current 12-month average is 4.6%. It has only been lower during two other periods since the mid-50s.

Furthermore, most measures of Americans’ income growth are almost twice the rate of inflation. Average Hourly Earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year in June, substantially above the 3.2% 20-year average. The 11-month moving-average of Americans’ Average Hourly Earnings is currently 4.04%. 1998 was the only year during the 90s expansion that it exceeded current levels. This high level of earnings growth comes as the CPI for May rose 2.7% year-over-year, down from a 4.7% increase in September 2005 and well below the 20-year average of 3.1%. Long-term interest rates remain very low by historic standards despite the recent up-tick related to stronger economic growth.

Besides a very healthy job market and below-average inflation, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is up 125% over the last decade and the S&P 500 has risen 106% since the October 2002 major bear market lows. As a result, Americans’ net worth is at an all-time high right now, a fact that continues to be ignored by the record number of stock market participants that believe it is in their financial and/or political interest to paint a bleak picture of America.