Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- While the sub-prime turmoil has caused some investors to reassess credit risk, other are ready to acquire assets at lower prices, given the “ample liquidity” available, Moody’s said. The Moody’s report is titled “Summer 2007: Another False Alarm in Terms of Banking Systemic Risk but a Reality Check,” and was prepared by a team of analysts led by Pierre Cailleteau, the NY-based firm’s chief international economic analyst.
- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said problems in the subprime-lending industry haven’t spread through the US economy. Poole also said he sees signs that inflation is “moderating just a bit” and suggested the central bank can afford to wait before lowering interest rates.
-
For Baidu.com Inc.(BIDU), the Google Inc.(GOOG) imitator with a 58 percent share of the Chinese Web-search market and a $5.9 billion market value to prove it, the battle for dominance is just beginning. At stake is the Internet market in China, the world's second-biggest after the U.S. by users. Google is gaining ground, if rising short interest on Baidu is any indication.
- The Univ. of Colorado Board of Regents voted to fire a tenured professor criticized for his comments after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, citing academic misconduct. The nine-member board voted 8-1 to terminate Ward Churchill, an ethnic studies professor at the university’s Boulder campus.
- Popular support for Osama bin Laden and for suicide bomb attacks against civilians is falling across most of the Muslim world, according to a US survey.
- China’s top planning agency said prevention of “overheating” is the most important policy goal in the second half of 2007, reiterating a government priority to prevent escalating prices and curb inflation.
- Imports of crude oil by Japan, the world’s largest consumer of oil after the US and China, fell .9% in June from a year earlier.

Wall Street Journal:
- The US Justice Dept. has contacted 11 oil-industry companies as part of an investigation into possibly illegal payments to customs agents for freight forwarding and other services.

AP:
- A hearing in the lawsuit aimed at shutting down Facebook.com is scheduled for tomorrow in US District Court in Boston.

Reuters:
- The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission said late on Tuesday that it will hold a telephone conference call with reporters on Wednesday morning to provide details on a significant enforcement case it will file related to illegal trading activity. CFTC Acting Chairman Walter Lukken testified at a congressional hearing two weeks ago that the agency was investigating instances of possible manipulation in US energy markets. He said the CFTC had “evidence of manipulation” by about 100 individuals and entities, but the agency was still trying to build those cases.

Financial Times:
- Apollo Management LP, the NY buyout firm run by Leon Black, is proposing to raise as much as $1.1 billion in a private placement of stock.
- An “unprecedented” joint crackdown on software piracy by Chinese police and the US FBI has led to 25 arrests and the seizure of counterfeit software worth $500M, the FBI said on Tuesday.
- SAC Capital, the $14B hedge fund run by billionaire Steven Cohen, is considering selling up to 20% of itself to private minority investors.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (MCD), target $56.
- Reiterated Buy on (T), target $45.
- Raised (BER) to Buy, target raised to $35.
- Reiterated Buy on (NTRI), target $90.

Night Trading

Asian Indices are -1.0% to -.23% on average.
S&P 500 futures +.07%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (ADVS)/.14
- (AKAM)/.30
- (ATI)/1.94
- (BUD)/.86
- (AAPL)/.72
- (BIDU)/3.48
- (BA)/1.16
- (CPS)/.45
- (CL)/.83
- (COP)/2.68
- (GLW)/.32
- (ETFC)/.40
- (ETH)/.65
- (ESRX)/.54
- (FFIV)/.63
- (FCX)/2.74
- (GD)/1.17
- (GENZ)/.81
- (HES)/1.47
- (LRCX)/1.17
- (LPX)/-.31
- (LSI)/-.02
- (MDC)/-.45
- (WFR)/.75
- (MTH)/-1.38
- (NSC)/.94
- (OI)/.50
- (PMTC)/.20
- (PFCB)/.36
- (PHM)/-.10
- (QCOM)/.52
- (R)/1.07
- (RYL)/.59
- (SY)/.34
- (SYMC)/.20
- (TEX)/1.61
- (TBL)/-.31
- (WLP)/1.36
- (ZMH)/.98

Upcoming Splits
- (DIOD) 3-for-2
- (GMCR) 3-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 am EST

- Existing Home Sales for June are estimated to fall to 5.86M versus 5.99M in May.

10:30 am EST
- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil drawdown of -1,375,000 barrels versus a -449,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are expected to fall by -125,000 barrels versus a -2,235,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by 750,000 barrels versus a -145,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is expected to rise by .6% versus a .87% increase the prior week.

2:00 pm EST
- The Fed’s Beige Book report

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Poole speaking, Fed’s Geithner speaking, Morgan Keegan Insurance Conference and weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by commodity and automaker stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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