Monday, July 16, 2007

Stocks Finish Mostly Lower on Lingering Sub-prime Concerns and Profit-taking

Indices
S&P 500 1,549.52 -.19%
DJIA 13,950.98 +.31%
NASDAQ 2,697.33 -.36%
Russell 2000 848.47 -.85%
Wilshire 5000 15,609.34 -.28%
Russell 1000 Growth 617.24 -.16%
Russell 1000 Value 880.35 -.30%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 742.34 -.32%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,125.11 +.01%
Morgan Stanley Technology 649.21 -.04%
Transports 5,378.68 +.17%
Utilities 507.43 -1.57%
MSCI Emerging Markets 141.46 -.54%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .83 -10.75%
NYSE Arms .90 +26.82%
Volatility(VIX) 15.59 +2.90%
ISE Sentiment 169.0 -6.63%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 74.20 +.37%
Reformulated Gasoline 214.32 -3.67%
Natural Gas 6.40 -4.01%
Heating Oil 206.05 -2.37%
Gold 665.90 -.21%
Base Metals 258.84 257.26 +.20%
Copper 356.0 -.92%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 5.04% -5 basis points
US Dollar 80.56 -.01%
CRB Index 320.64 -1.37%

Leading Sectors
Telecom +.54%
Wireless +.43%
Semis +.34%

Lagging Sectors
Utilities -1.57%
Oil Tankers -2.71%
Coal -3.25%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations
Deutsche Bank:

- Rated (WNR) Sell, target $48.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman sees alternative fuel “breakthroughs” in the next few years.
- Gasoline futures fell 4.4%, the biggest drop in more than eight months, on forecasts a government report this week will show a rise in US inventories with oil inventories near decade highs.
- IBM(IBM) shares reached a five-year high after the company announced a $1.4 billion contract to manage information technology for AstraZeneca Plc, the UK’s second-biggest drugmaker.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly higher today on gains in my Semi longs and (TLT) long. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, most sectors fell and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety were about average into the close. Today's overall market action was mildly bearish. Despite weakness in the major averages, many market-leading growth stocks traded very well again today. The 10-year yield finished at session lows, which is a positive. Commodity prices fell today, with natural gas(-3.6%), gasoline (-4.0%) and corn (-5.6%) especially weak. As well, the Shanghai composite came under renewed pressure overnight, falling 2.4% on talk from government officials that inflation in the country is accelerating. Some well known bears today were pointing to the CNBC Trillion Dollar Survey and suggesting it is evidence of investor complacency. However, that survey says 80% think the DJIA will close "around 14,000 or higher" at year-end. We are already "around 14,000," so theoretically, 100% of the respondents could believe that stocks will trade "around 14,000 or lower" by year-end. I would hardly call this one survey evidence of investor complacency. I continue to believe the herd has never been more bearish in US history given the recent run we have had and records in the major averages.

No comments: