Thursday, September 06, 2007

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- California’s Senate approved a bill that would force the state’s two public pension funds, the largest in the US, to sell their investments in some companies that do business in Iran.
- Democratic Representative Sander Levin said he would introduce legislation allowing universities such as Harvard, Yale and Stanford to invest in hedge funds in the US without incurring a tax penalty.
- SAC Capital Advisors LLC raised $1 billion from investors in August as financial markets fell on concerns that subprime-mortgage defaults would slow the economy. The new money increased SAC’s assets to about $15 billion during a month when the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm’s main fund lost 3%, according to an investor.
- Following are comments by Robert Steel, the US Treasury’s undersecretary for domestic finance, on the slump in the commercial paper market. “We’re vigilant on this issue and we’re understanding it and monitoring it. I think for now, things are working and they have improved from where they were at the bottom. We believe liquidity is beginning to come back, but we are vigilant and focused on the issue.”
- Pakistan won’t be a “soft state” for terrorists, President Pervez Musharraf said, after more than 270 people were killed in attacks since July, including two bombs this week in Rawalpindi where he has a residence.

AP:
- Lower-division schools are eligible for the AP’s college football Top 25 poll for the first time in its 71-year history following Appalachian State’s season-opening upset of Michigan. The AP said several poll voters this week expressed interest in voting for the Mountaineers, who play in the Football Championship Subdivision – the second tier formerly known as Division I-AA – and that the decision was made because programs that show they can compete with top-level schools should be recognized with them..

Financial Times:
- Goldman Sachs(GS) made $300 million last month from rescuing one of its hedge funds.

AFP:
- Osama Bin Laden will address the American people in a video message on the sixth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, citing US monitoring service SITE.

Commercial Times:
- Acer Inc.’s notebook computer shipments will reach 15 million units this year, exceeding the company’s projection.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:
- Reiterated Buy on (IDTI), target $20.
- Reiterated Buy on (GOOG), target $600. Updating out long thesis based on 3 factors: 1) Analysis of comScore’s search tracking changes indicates a stronger GOOG market position than prior realized. comScore’s recently revamped search tracking methodology reveals that in July, Google enjoyed over 55% US query market share, up 9% Y/Y vs. Y/Y share declines for each of the other major search destinations. 2) Takeaways from GOOG’s presentation at out Tech Conference signals still material upside in core search. GOOG’s recent paid search algorithm change is showing initial positive results on both click-thru rates and CPCs, GOOG would appear to be relatively well insulated from mortgage advertising weakness and underlying advertiser demand remains robust. 3) Analysis of YouTube’s ad innovations highlights new, albeit near-term small, revenue opportunity. We estimate $135 million in 08 net revenue.

Morgan Stanley:
- Reiterated Overweight on (CBG), target $47.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 futures -.14%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Movers
Top 25 Stories

Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (HITK)/-.22

Upcoming Splits
- (MTW) 2-for-1
- (MDR) 2-for-1
- (NVDA) 3-for-2

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for August is estimated at 100K versus 92K in July.
- The Unemployment Rate for August is estimated at 4.6% versus 4.6% in July.
- Average Hourly Earnings for August are estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% gain in July.

10:00 am EST
- Wholesale Inventories for July are estimated to rise .4% versus a .5% gain in June.

Other Potential Market Movers
- The (MOT) financial analyst meeting, Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference and the Morgan Keegan Equity Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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