Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Stocks Finish Higher, Propeled by Gains in the Financial Sector

Indices
S&P 500 1,525.42 +.54%
DJIA 13,878.15 +.72%
NASDAQ 2,699.03 +.58%
Russell 2000 809.12 +.76%
Wilshire 5000 15,269.52 +.56%
Russell 1000 Growth 616.77 +.52%
Russell 1000 Value 850.47 +.60%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 744.88 +.90%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 1,055.17 +1.02%
Morgan Stanley Technology 664.29 +.12%
Transports 4,834.12 +.57%
Utilities 512.04 +.67%
MSCI Emerging Markets 147.30 +.87%

Sentiment/Internals
Total Put/Call .85 -26.09%
NYSE Arms .81 -15.56%
Volatility(VIX) 17.63 -5.22%
ISE Sentiment 134.0 -11.84%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 80.50 +1.22%
Reformulated Gasoline 202.46 -.65%
Natural Gas 6.42 +.99%
Heating Oil 218.25 +.06%
Gold 735.70 -.42%
Base Metals 251.59 +1.79%
Copper 361.90 -.28%

Economy
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.62% unch.
US Dollar 78.52 +.27%
CRB Index 331.92 +.07%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +2.13%
Biotech +1.36%
Restaurants +1.30%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Tankers -1.19%
Gold -1.61%
Homebuilders -2.42%

Evening Review
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Movers
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers

After-hours Stock Quote
In Play


Afternoon Recommendations

- None of note

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks rallied the most in a week after GM(GM) agreed on a contract with the UAW and investors speculation billionaire Warren Buffett will buy a stake in Bear Stearns(BSC).
- US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on Congress to pass legislation that would permanently bar taxes on Internet access services.

NY Times:
- Buffett, Others Said to Consider Bear Stearns Stake.

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Biotech longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was positive today as the advance/decline line finished higher, most sectors rose and volume was around average. Measures of investor anxiety were around average into the close. Today's overall market action was bullish. Semis, homebuilders and oil service didn't participate, however, airlines, restaurants, retail, biotech, investment banks, wireless, steel and alternative energy all posted 1%+ gains. Under Armour (UA) fell over 6% today on a downgrade from UBS. Their rationale basically revolved around unusually warm weather this month. I will use any further meaningful weakness in the shares to add to my long position. Cyclicals outperformed today, rising 1.02%, even as many pointed to the durable goods report as evidence of economic weakness. I expect durable goods orders to bounce back next month. Growth stock leaders underperformed today, which isn't surprising given recent outsized gains. Investors Intelligence showed an increase in bullishness today, however, as I have posted many times before, I don't believe this sentiment indicator has a very good track record as a contrary indicator. I look at dozens of gauges of investor sentiment. I usually highlight the AAII numbers because they are a much better contrary indicator, in my opinion. I still argue that overall investor sentiment toward U.S. stocks has never been this bad in history with the S&P 500 just off a record high, which bodes very well for an extension of the huge gains we have seen since the bottom in 2002.We could get some early morning weakness tomorrow on more weak housing data and profit-taking, however I still believe pullbacks will remain muted and short-term in nature.

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